How will the vaccine be interpreted in the second half of the "anti-epidemic war" that must be won?

In recent days, cases of new crowns have appeared in many provinces and cities, and curbing the spread of the new crown has once again become a national issue

According to incomplete statistics, 17 provinces (autonomous regions and municipalities), including Beijing, Guangdong, Zhejiang, and Hubei, have successively started new crown vaccination booster vaccination

Intensified vaccination is expected to set off a new round of vaccination boom

Looking at the world, the US FDA has recently approved two EUAs with enhanced needles

In addition, on October 22, Pfizer and BioNTech announced the results of a phase III randomized controlled trial of mRNA vaccine booster

The vaccination arrow of the booster shot is on the string, but how do you hit the booster shot? When to fight? Check it out

New crown vaccine booster data

New crown vaccine booster data

Data source: BioNTech, Moderna, Johnson & Johnson, etc.

(1) United States

(1) United States

The U.

Interestingly, the FDA stated that the three authorized vaccines can be "mixed and matched", which means that two months after the first dose of Johnson & Johnson's new crown vaccine, you can get COMIRNATY, mRNA-1273 or Johnson & Johnson's new crown vaccine, COMIRNATY or mRNA- COMIRNATY, mRNA-1273 or Johnson & Johnson's new crown vaccine can also be vaccinated after two injections of 1273 6 months

(1) BioNTech/Pfizer ’s COMIRNATY is the first vaccine to be approved for enhanced EUA

BioNTech/Pfizer

According to Pfizer's semi-annual report, COMIRNATY's sales in the first half of the year reached 11.

(2) Moderna 's new crown vaccine booster was approved by the EUA on October 20.

Moderna

In terms of performance, Moderna's mRNA-1273 achieved sales of US$1.

(3) Johnson & Johnson 's new crown vaccine booster was approved by the EUA on October 20

Johnson

Johnson & Johnson's new crown vaccine Q1-Q3 sales and growth rate (US$100 million)

Johnson & Johnson's new crown vaccine Q1-Q3 sales and growth rate (US$100 million)

Data source: Johnson & Johnson Financial Report

(2) China

(2) China

At present, a total of four domestic vaccines can be used for booster vaccination, including Sinopharm Zhongsheng Beijing Company (including Chengdu and Lanzhou sub-packages), Sinopharm Zhongsheng Wuhan Company, Beijing Kexing Company’s inactivated vaccine and Kangsino Company’s adenovirus Vector vaccine

As far as the vaccination rules are concerned, the domestic vaccination rules for booster injections are not consistent with the FDA's rules

The domestic vaccination rules for booster injections are not consistent with the FDA's rules
.

According to the unified deployment of the joint prevention and control mechanism of the State Council, the booster shot can only be selected 6 months after the full vaccination of the new coronavirus vaccine is completed.
In principle, the original vaccine that has been vaccinated is used for booster immunization
.
The FDA's plan is to "mix and match.
" mRNA vaccines and adenovirus vector vaccines can be mixed
.

However, CanSino's research found that "mix and match" is expected to further increase the level of neutralizing antibodies
.

However, CanSino's research found that "mix and match" is expected to further increase the level of neutralizing antibodies
.

At the 21st China Biological Products Annual Conference, Chief Scientist Zhu Tao of Cansino Biotech stated that 6 months after inoculation with 2 doses of inactivated vaccines, one dose of Keweisha inhaled form was sequentially strengthened, and the level of neutralizing antibodies increased compared to before the strengthening.
250-300 times higher; if the homologous booster 1 dose of inactivated vaccine, the level of neutralizing antibody will increase by 30 times compared with before boosting
.

The difference in the increase of neutralizing antibodies between the two regimens was about 6 times
.
Therefore, the "mix and match" model of inactivated vaccines and adenovirus vector vaccines is expected to further increase the level of neutralizing antibodies
.

Figure: The "mix and match" of inactivated vaccines and adenovirus vector vaccines further increases the level of neutralizing antibodies

Figure: The "mix and match" of inactivated vaccines and adenovirus vector vaccines further increases the level of neutralizing antibodies

Data source: Cansino

(3) Thoughts on investment in vaccine stocks

(3) Thoughts on investment in vaccine stocks

Although the logic of strengthening the needle is right at the time, the recent trend of the new crown vaccine stocks is hard to be optimistic
.

On October 1, MSD and Ridgeback released the phase III clinical interim data of the small molecule drug Molnupiravir.
Molnupiravir can significantly reduce the mortality of patients with new coronary disease
.

For a time, the view that small molecule drugs should replace vaccines was on the rise, panic in the market reached its peak, and the stock prices of BioNTech, Moderna, etc.
plummeted one after another
.

The view that small-molecule drugs replace vaccines is on the rise, the market panic has reached its peak, and the stock prices of BioNTech and Moderna have plummeted
.

But as the panic subsided, investors began to calm down
.

Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, believes that drugs "will never" replace the new crown vaccine.
The former focuses on treatment and the latter focuses on prevention.
The roles of the two are completely different
.
For the control of the new crown epidemic, the current primary task is still the popularization of vaccines
.

Drugs "absolutely will not" replace the new crown vaccine.
The former focuses on treatment and the latter focuses on prevention.
The roles of the two are completely different
.
For the control of the new crown epidemic, the current primary task is still the popularization of vaccines
.

In view of this, everyone began to think about the wrong killing of vaccine stocks, and the road to correction was slowly opened
.

Everyone began to think about the wrong killing of vaccine stocks, and the road to correct the deviation was slowly opened
.

Entering mid-October, the stock prices of BioNTech and Moderna began to pull back
.
BioNTech closed at $278 on October 22, a 15.
97% correction from the low of $240 on October 4
.
Moderna closed at $326 on October 22, a 10% correction from the lowest point of 299 yuan
.

But the future of vaccine stocks is unpredictable.
On the one hand, the current sales data of vaccine companies are still very gratifying
.
According to Johnson & Johnson’s third-quarter report, the company’s new crown vaccines achieved sales of US$502 million in Q3, a 206% year-on-year increase compared to Q2 sales
.

But on the other hand, vaccines are not a sustainable logic, and the feast will eventually end
.

Vaccines are not a sustainable logic, and the feast will eventually end
.

First, the competition for vaccines has become increasingly fierce.
According to statistics from the World Health Organization, there are more than 300 vaccines in the clinical and pre-clinical stages of the world, of which 121 new crown vaccines are in the clinical stage, and Sanofi has recently given up mRNA for the new crown.
Vaccine research and development; second, the demand for vaccines is gradually decreasing
.
According to data from the National Health Commission, as of October 22, China has reported a total of 2.
2 billion vaccinations against the new coronavirus, that is, more than 1 billion people have completed two vaccinations, which undoubtedly means that the remaining market space is quite limited
.

(4) Summary

(4) Summary

The vaccination of the new crown vaccine has officially entered the era of intensified injections, and has been launched globally and domestically
.
The booster injection can effectively increase the neutralizing antibody level of subjects and enhance the immunity of the new coronavirus.
Therefore, it is recommended that everyone be vaccinated on time
.

However, the recent trend of the new crown vaccine stocks is hard to be optimistic.
On the one hand, competition in vaccine research and development and commercialization has become increasingly fierce.
On the other hand, the demand for vaccination is gradually saturated, and the space is relatively limited
.
Where is the future of new crown vaccine investment? After the three quarterly reports of relevant companies are released, the answer will be revealed
.