Human papillomavirus (HPV) is the main cause of cancers in the back of the throat and oral cavity, and vaccination is expected to significantly reduce the incidence of these cancers in the United States
HPV is the most common sexually transmitted virus in the world
In this new study, Gypsyamber DSouza, a professor at the Bloomberg School of Public Health at Johns Hopkins University, analyzed a national database of oropharyngeal cancer cases and HPV vaccination, and predicted the impact of HPV vaccination on different age groups.
This study was recently published in the Journal of Oncology of the American Medical Association
"HPV vaccine will effectively prevent oropharyngeal cancer, but it will take time for people to see the effect, because most of these cancers occur in middle age
Oropharyngeal cancer is the most common HPV-related cancer, and data shows that there are more than 50,000 new cases in the United States each year
Vaccines are a powerful medical weapon against this type of virus, but they have a major disadvantage: they can be prevented but not cured
In this study, researchers used survey data from the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention to estimate current and future HPV vaccination rates, and predict the incidence of oropharyngeal cancer based on the National Cancer Institute’s past and current incidence rates.
They estimate that the vaccination rate of different age groups will be different by 2045, 72% of the 36-45-year-old population, 37% of the 46-55-year-old population, 9% of the 56-69-year-old population, and 0% of the 70-83 year-old population
These predictions show that the incidence of oropharyngeal cancer is still high among the older, most unvaccinated people, so in the United States, the incidence of these cancers has hardly changed—assuming no vaccinations, every 100,000 14.
However, they predict that between 2018 and 2045, the incidence of new oropharyngeal cancer in the well-vaccinated age groups of 36 to 45 and 46 to 55 will drop sharply: 1.
"Our forecast shows that by 2033, nearly 100 cases of oropharyngeal cancer will be prevented each year, and by 2045, this number will increase by approximately 10 times
Related paper information: https://doi.
https://doi.
org/10.
1001/jamaoncol.
2021.
2907
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