IMS: potential comparison of global and Chinese tumor Market

Source: IMS 2015-03-23 current situation and trend of global tumor market 2013 global tumor drug market scale reached US $65 billion, with a 10-year compound growth rate of 14% (Figure 1) Although the growth slows down year by year, it is still higher than the growth of the overall pharmaceutical market The successful launch of new products can be said to be an important reason for the impact on the tumor market In the early 1920s, targeted drugs created a prosperous scene in the tumor market, Avastin's marketing and Herceptin's indications extended to post-operative adjuvant chemotherapy for breast cancer accelerated the market growth after 2003; in 2005-2009, new products were frustrated in the market, and the growth rate of the tumor market declined; 2010-2013 In, a large number of drugs were approved and listed in the world, and the R & D process was stable, which played a decisive role in the revitalization of tumor market growth Figure 1: data source of regional distribution of global tumor Market: IMS Midas, mat Dec 2013 Oncology (L1 + L2 & revimid & xgeva & Proleukin) by 2018, the global expenditure of tumor drugs will reach US $100 billion Compared with the growth of US $17 billion in the past five years, the absolute growth in the future is expected to be US $25-45 billion The reason is that the surge in cancer drugs and the strong performance of research and development in recent years continue to drive cancer drugs to the world, and the incidence rate of cancer will continue to grow by 2020 Current situation and trend of China's tumor market in 2013, the scale of China's tumor drug market reached 32 billion yuan, with a compound growth of 24% in 10 years, far higher than the global growth From 1% of the global tumor market share ten years ago to 5% in 2013, it can be seen that the importance of China in the global tumor market is constantly increasing The main reasons for the growth are: the expanding patient group, the improvement of patients' payment ability, the expansion of medical insurance coverage, the launch of new products, and the increasing number of commercial insurance and patient support projects Different from the global tumor market, the growth of various sub categories of China's tumor market is far faster than that of the international market, and the market main body is still traditional chemotherapy drugs, accounting for 70% of the market share (Figure 2) However, in the international market, chemotherapy drugs are being phased out The research and development of targeted drugs has become the development trend of global cancer drugs, and the Chinese market will certainly follow this trend and shift its focus Figure 2: tumor subcategory market performance and trend, global v.s China, mat2q10-2q14 data source: IMS Midas, 2Q10 mat – 2q14 mat compared with the 5 developed European countries (UK, Germany, France, Italy and Spain), the tumor market size reached 12.8 billion US dollars in 2013, while China was 4.2 billion US dollars, only 1 / 3 of the 5 European countries; however, China's compound growth rate reached 21%, 7% of the 5 European countries There are also differences between China and Europe in terms of tumor market ranking The top three tumors in China are non-small cell lung cancer, colorectal cancer and gastric cancer, while the top five countries in the EU are breast cancer, colorectal cancer and non Hodgkin's lymphoma Case study of breast cancer treatment in China v.s European breast cancer treatment In addition to the differences in the growth rate and pattern of the overall tumor market, due to the differences in the Chinese and Western medical systems (medical insurance system, department setting and division of labor, etc.), race, treatment concept, etc., there are huge differences in the incidence, disease, patient population characteristics, treatment decision makers, treatment methods and drug application of each tumor It is necessary to have a deep understanding of the current situation in all aspects of China to succeed in the Chinese market Let's take breast cancer as an example to briefly compare the differences between China and the West From the perspective of breast cancer patients themselves, a large part of breast cancer patients in China are in the working age (46-60); however, in five European countries, the proportion of older breast cancer patients is relatively high (Figure 3) Chart 3: age comparison of breast cancer incidence rate: 5 European countries v.s China breast cancer patients molecular marker hormone receptor and Her2, 5 European breast cancer patients hormone receptor positive rate is higher than China patients (Figure 4) In HER2, China's undetected rate is almost twice that of five European countries The positive rate in the test population was significantly higher than that in Europe (Figure 5) Figure 4: comparison of hormone receptor detection rate: 5 European countries v.s China * er or PR positive is regarded as hormone receptor positive figure 5: HER2 detection rate comparison: 5 European countries v.s China * fish + or IHC 3 is regarded as HER2 positive, data source: IMS Health, oncology analyzer, In the early treatment stage, most of the treatment departments of mat2014m6 breast cancer in China are in general surgery, while in Europe, they are in oncology and radiotherapy; in the late treatment stage, they are in oncology and general surgery, while in Europe, they are in oncology and radiotherapy (Figure 6) It can be seen that different countries face different treatment decision makers Figure 6: distribution of breast cancer treatment departments, v.s China, 5 European countries source: IMS oncology analyzer, mat 2013m12 breast cancer surgery, thanks to timely treatment and advanced medical technology and concepts, more than 30% of European patients use breast protection for treatment, while less than 10% in China On the contrary, total mastectomy is widely used in China, accounting for 65%, while in Europe, only less than 20% (Fig 7) Figure 7: types of breast cancer surgical treatment: European countries v.s China data source: IMS oncology analyzer, mat2014m6 breast cancer treatment drug use and treatment plan, take the first-line treatment of breast cancer as an example, in China, the top 5 molecules are chemotherapy drugs, and the main flow treatment plan is capecitabine single drug or combination of Taxus drugs In Europe, there are two widely used macromolecular targeted drugs, and the treatment scheme also uses macromolecular targeted drugs combined with Taxus drugs as the standard scheme (Figure 8) In fact, the research and development and use of targeted drugs are the development trend of global cancer drugs, and the Chinese market will certainly follow this trend and shift its focus Figure 8: breast cancer drug treatment options: 5 European countries v.s China data source: IMS oncology analyzer, According to the dosage of mat2014q2 capecitabine in the treatment of advanced breast cancer, more than 80% of the patients with advanced breast cancer in China did not receive 85% of the recommended dosage per square meter per day, and 1 / 3 of the patients did not even receive 65% of the recommended dosage per square meter per day If the dosage of these patients is up to the recommended dosage, the additional sales of capecitabine in China will be about $2 million (Figure 9) Figure 9: daily dose distribution data of Xeloda in Chinese patients with advanced breast cancer: IMS oncology analyzer, CHPA, mat2013q4