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In 2023, the pharmaceutical industry will change its logic in grief and pain

 Last Update: 2023-02-03
 Source: Internet
 Author: User

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The epidemic has been three years and is a typical black swan + gray rhinoceros double kill, originally the pharmaceutical industry has been driven by medical reform to carry out structural adjustments, the industry has undergone tremendous changes, R&D-oriented and registration reform, pricing methods, payment methods are changing the previous operating logic, this is gray rhinoceros
.

The emergence of gray rhinos is inevitable, this is a gradual reform, no matter which link is faster, which link is slower, but most of them can predict the subsequent development direction
.

Everyone can see the gray rhinoceros, and most of them can understand it, but no one can predict that the black swan of the new crown virus will appear, which has been raging for three years and has not dissipated, affecting the economic, social, and even international political pattern, and the pharmaceutical and medical industries naturally cannot stay out
of the storm center.

Three years later, the epidemic has gradually been liberalized, and the epidemic prevention and control of twenty plus ten new ones has stirred the industry again in just one month at the
end of 2022.

Yang and Yang Kang, from entertainment to all sentient beings suffering, in just a few days
.
Along with a "joyful yang", antigens, ibuprofen, oxygen generators, oximeters, paxlovid, montmorillonite powder, human immunoglobulins, drugs and medical supplies that were not well known to the public were robbed and stockpiled
.

Looking at this situation, as an old man in the medical circle, I don't know whether it is sadness or pain, but in addition to grief, I still have to think about the future and think about the next operation logic
of the industry.

1.
The top-down driving force is becoming more and more obvious

The top-level design plays a huge, even decisive, role
.
Whether it is the way of epidemic prevention and control, the way of liberalization, and the way of ensuring the supply of various materials, everything is affected from the top down
.

On the surface, all kinds of enterprises are around the instantaneous market demand surge, in fact, they are facing a policy city, the policy city does not know how long the snow slope is, how thick the snow is, but at least in a short period of time, in the policy, society, market, public opinion field has changed the industry logic, ideological concepts, evaluation methods and methodologies, affecting the trend of
the subsequent industry.

Looking at the December policy, the drug regulatory agency quickly approved and approved a number of antigen products, a variety of cold medicines obtained the latest new crown symptomatic treatment registration, Merck's new crown drugs were urgently listed.
.
.
All provinces can temporarily suspend the implementation of the established policy of suspending the purchase of unevaluated varieties when there are three or more evaluated varieties, and temporarily include one cold medicine in the medical insurance catalog.
.
.

There is no news about the postponement of national talks and centralized procurement, and basic drugs simply cannot care about formulating and improving the system under the epidemic, perhaps when everything has calmed down and reflect on the past, it is possible to effectively integrate resources and meet the needs and yearning
of the people for a healthy and better life in the new situation.

2.
The industry is still continuing to adjust structurally, but the direction has changed

Since top-down drivers play a crucial role, has structural adjustment changed? The answer is that it hasn't changed, but the direction has
changed.

Since 2015, the reform of the review and approval system for innovative drugs and medical devices has brought a strong driving force to the industry, affected by this, innovative drugs have received both capital and policy pursuit, turtle scientists + foreign company executives + various financing has brought a large number of start-up BIOTECH, the speed of new drug listing has accelerated, the number has increased, and the financing listing transaction is
booming.

On the side of generic drugs, through consistency evaluation, backward production capacity is gradually eliminated, and through centralized procurement, the pricing logic and sales logic
are re-changed.
Coupled with the strong support for traditional Chinese medicine, innovative drugs, generic drugs and proprietary Chinese medicines have different benefits, which is the logic
of survival of the fittest, improving quality and efficiency, and supporting characteristics in structural adjustment.

Today, the structural adjustment has not changed direction
.
In the past two years, the listed companies of innovative drugs have also occupied the glory of the capital market, and the follow-up of financing has become more and more difficult, why? The wind changed direction, and so did the direction
.

Give innovative drugs a few years of entrepreneurial support period, the dividends that should be given are given, there is no clinical trial that cannot be passed, there is no capital that cannot be financed, in the face of the delay in obtaining real innovative drugs, under the miserable situation of delay in profitability, investors' patience has been exhausted, and the policy dividend has expired, does the troika model now look more like a grassroots team?

What's more, the epidemic is the biggest environment and can change the direction
of the wind.

A month back in time, who could afford to look at those big medicines that represented "backward production capacity" on those rotten streets? If ibuprofen is not easier to write and remember than the words acetaminophen, who knows its pharmacological effects? It doesn't matter what antigen POCT is, the public simply does not care about this, afraid of what will come and what to grab and what to hoard .
.
.

Sadly, the chaos of the national mobilization in just one month is the best market education, the more basic the drug, the more valuable, now who is worried about what small molecule targeted drugs, monoclonal antibodies, ADCs for the treatment of malignant tumors? Many people in less than two months have long forgotten when diet pills are sold out of stock of semeglutide
.

The protection and treatment of malignant tumors and cardiovascular diseases are all marginal needs above the relatively stable environment and the yearning for a better life, and the marginal is beaten back to the basic state, and the basic guarantee seems to be the most concerned by the public, which is a very regrettable reality
.

3.
The fundamentals of several joys and sorrows of enterprises have not changed, and what has changed is that joy may not be true joy, and those who are sad do not yet know how to deal with it

In the past, those large general medicines, the approval was so many that they were forgotten in the file cabinet, now quickly pick up and start the production line 24 hours a day, many companies in the face of strong blowout demand, a month to get back the previous months or even half a year can not get back the revenue and profits
.

In a trance, those who do pharmaceutical sales may not have encountered the attention received by this month since the industry, and have never experienced such good sales, doesn't it mean that the sales function has been weakened under the centralized procurement policy? Doesn't it mean that the industry doesn't need as many salespeople? It seems that the wind outlet is finally selling to medicine
.

However, not every pharmaceutical company is like this, not every company has cold medicine, not every company has antigen and oxygen generators, innovative pharmaceutical companies how to do it? What can medical representatives talk about when they visit the director and doctors every day? Do you have ibuprofen? Do you have antigens? If not, it's best not to come, it's really the wind that turns quickly, thirty years in Hedong, less than thirty days to Hexi
.

However, manufacturers with tight supplies are not like this every day, the market of antigens is a month, and now the price has dropped to 2 yuan and begs people to take it quickly, and the good days of ibuprofen are almost the same, after all, the production capacity of a pharmaceutical company in Shandong can meet the market demand of half of China; Less than two days after the montmorillonite was sold out, some people said that it was all the tricks of the printer brother.
.
.

But whether it's the frenzied ibuprofen or the montmorillonite that fanned the butterfly effect, what's the next rush to buy? How long can it last? Manufacturers who have already eaten dividends are not clear, and manufacturers who do not have these products are dry-staring
.

The world is so difficult, a few joys and a few sorrows, joy, but in the special period of demand distortion felt unprecedented attention, saw the long-lost performance red; The worried ones are thinking about how to develop the enterprise next? What other projects and products offer hope of survival?

4.
The market urgently needs to restore order and confidence

It is helpless for the fever clinic to overcrowd and there is a medical run, it is irrational for the public to rush to hoard medicine, and it is even more abnormal
for "backward production capacity" to become a mainstream product.
Society needs stability, the market needs order, the economy can be on the right track, and enterprises can truly become the main body of innovation and promote the progress of
civilization.

In addition to the new crown virus, there are many diseases that need to be overcome by scientists, medical experts, enterprises, governments and society, and there are many serious diseases, rare diseases, and a large number of chronic diseases that need to be guaranteed and treated by society and medical insurance
.
Society needs to return to rationality, and enterprises should play their due value
.

In addition, various remarks and news are flying all over the world during the extraordinary period, calling on pharmaceutical companies and medical people not to follow the chaotic wind and make a fool
of themselves.
The chaotic information on the Internet spreads for a long time, society will also be very harmed--- information anxiety has become the norm, distrust of experts, disbelief in science, all kinds of ugliness and short-sightedness of human nature come to the face.
.
.
In any case, it is still necessary to do a good job as a medicine person, at least do not get stuck in information and hype
.

5.
Next, enterprises should think about what to do in the "post-epidemic" era?

First, when will the pandemic end? This is the key question
.
A lot of "information" shows that the peak time of the epidemic in various places is probably around
the Spring Festival.
It will definitely get better in the long run, but I'm not so optimistic about the exact time, and at the beginning of 2020, who would believe that the epidemic will continue for three years? Assuming another year, is the company ready? Does the individual have enough food and spirit to survive another year? Although it is an assumption and deduction of extreme cases, various preparations still need to be made
.

Secondly, how do businesses survive? Maybe first have to research how your clients survive? Public medical institutions have played a great stabilizing role in the face of the epidemic, and medical staff have made great contributions, but the subsequent development can solve various problems
in just a few documents.
The future way out of public medical institutions seems to be the future way out of most pharmaceutical companies, which requires a high degree of binding to obtain consistency in direction and philosophy
.

In addition, apart from the medical institution market, what other market can enterprises survive? Is it to open up a whole new field or to follow the crowd and seize the outside hospital, online and grassroots? In fact, whether it is outside the hospital, online or grassroots, to be precise, this is the terminal rather than the market, the real market is the need for products and services to meet the realization of value, rather than filling the terminal and transferring the shelf, how many companies really care about this?

At the very least, you can consider from the transaction object, whether to G is to B or to C, different objects, different needs, different products or services offered, different delivery methods, different pricing methods, and different payment methods
.
But whether it is G/B/C, being able to continue to create value for each other is the foundation of
your survival.

Finally, we need to think about whether the pharmaceutical field is a welfare given by a state to the public or a real "market"? This question is the ultimate question that all businesses have to think about, which determines whether the company can be profitable? How much
profit is made.

If it is a welfare, then the enterprise is a supplier, where to fight, live by orders, of course, the profit of the order cannot be huge; If it is a real market, then whether the enterprise has the innovation of products and services determines the pricing power and commercial return
corresponding to innovation.

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