Thailand Kaitai Research Center reported that the first half of 2021, Thailand's agricultural situation well, from agricultural price support factors due to domestic and international market demand for agricultural products rose more than 12.
2020 year | First half of 2021 | Second half of 2021 | 2021 forecast | | Rice price (THB/ton) Year-on-year% | 10,929 2.
4 | 9,664 -15.
1 | 8,700-9,200 -17.
1 to -12.
2 | 9,182-9,432 -16.
0 to -13.
1 |
| Rubber price (THB/kg) Year-on-year% | 42.
9 2.
3 | 55.
2 50.
5 | 50-53 1.
7-7.
8 | 52.
6-54.
1 22.
6-26.
1 |
| Cassava price (THB/kg) Year-on-year% | 1.
8 -4.
9 | 2.
0 12.
7 | 1.
7-1.
9 -5.
3 to 5.
8 | 1.
86-1.
96 3.
7-9.
2 |
| Agricultural product price index (year-on-year %) | 6.
1 | 12.
0 | 4.
3-6.
4 | 8.
1-9.
2 |
| Agricultural production index (year-on-year %) | -5.
6 | 1.
5 | 1.
1-3.
0 | 1.
3-2.
4 |
| Farmers' income changes (Year-on-year %) | 0.
1 | 12.
5 | 5.
4-9.
4 | 9.
1-11.
6 |
Source: Data from the Office of Agricultural Economics, compiled and forecasted by Kaitai Research Center (as of July 6, 2021)
Note: The agricultural product price index and agricultural product output index for the first half of 2021 are forecasts based on the data of the Office of Agricultural Economics as of June 9, 2021
.
Agricultural product prices
The Kaitai Research Center predicts that the growth of the total output value of Thai agricultural products in the second half of 2021 will slow down compared with the first half of the year.
This is due to the decline in prices of most agricultural products such as rice, rubber and cassava.
The reason is that the supply of agricultural products is more conducive to production due to rainfall.
A year-on-year increase of 1.
1-3.
0%, especially the rainy season rice will enter the market in large numbers in the fourth quarter; at the same time, the impact of the new crown pneumonia epidemic will still curb domestic demand for agricultural products to a certain extent, slowing the year-on-year growth rate of agricultural products prices to 4.
3-6.
4 %, which in turn caused the year-on-year growth rate of farmers’ income to slow down to 5.
4-9.
4%
.
However, it is necessary to closely follow the trend of the epidemic and the effect of control.
2020 year | First half of 2021 | Second half of 2021 | 2021 forecast | | Rice price (THB/ton) Year-on-year% | 10,929 2.
4 | 9,664 -15.
1 | 8,700-9,200 -17.
1 to -12.
2 | 9,182-9,432 -16.
0 to -13.
1 |
| Rubber price (THB/kg) Year-on-year% | 42.
9 2.
3 | 55.
2 50.
5 | 50-53 1.
7-7.
8 | 52.
6-54.
1 22.
6-26.
1 |
| Cassava price (THB/kg) Year-on-year% | 1.
8 -4.
9 | 2.
0 12.
7 | 1.
7-1.
9 -5.
3 to 5.
8 | 1.
86-1.
96 3.
7-9.
2 |
| Agricultural product price index (year-on-year %) | 6.
1 | 12.
0 | 4.
3-6.
4 | 8.
1-9.
2 |
| Agricultural production index (year-on-year %) | -5.
6 | 1.
5 | 1.
1-3.
0 | 1.
3-2.
4 |
| Farmers' income changes (Year-on-year %) | 0.
1 | 12.
5 | 5.
4-9.
4 | 9.
1-11.
6 |
Forecast of major agricultural products trends in the second half of 2021 and throughout the year
Forecast of major agricultural products trends in the second half of 2021 and throughout the year
| Major domestic agricultural products | 2020 year | First half of 2021 | Second half of 2021 | 2021 forecast |
| Rice price (THB/ton) Year-on-year% | 10,929 2.
4 | 9,664 -15.
1 | 8,700-9,200 -17.
| 9,182-9,432 -16.
|
| Rubber price (THB/kg) Year-on-year% | 42.
2.
| 55.
50.
| 50-53 1.
| 52.
22.
|
| Cassava price (THB/kg) Year-on-year% | 1.
8 -4.
9 | 2.
0 12.
7 | 1.
7-1.
9 -5.
3 to 5.
8 | 1.
86-1.
96 3.
7-9.
2 |
| Agricultural product price index (year-on-year %) | 6.
1 | 12.
0 | 4.
3-6.
4 | 8.
1-9.
2 |
| Agricultural production index (year-on-year %) | -5.
6 | 1.
5 | 1.
1-3.
0 | 1.
3-2.
4 |
| Farmers' income changes (Year-on-year %) | 0.
1 | 12.
5 | 5.
4-9.
4 | 9.
1-11.
6 |
Major domestic agricultural products
2020 year
First half of 2021
Second half of 2021
2021 forecast
Rice price (THB/ton)
Year-on-year%
10,929
2.
4
9,664
-15.
1
8,700-9,200
-17.
1 to -12.
2
9,182-9,432
-16.
0 to -13.
1
Rubber price (THB/kg)
Year-on-year%
42.
9
2.
3
55.
2
50.
5
50-53
1.
7-7.
8
52.
6-54.
1
22.
6-26.
1
Cassava price (THB/kg)
Year-on-year%
1.
8
-4.
9
2.
0
12.
7
1.
7-1.
9
-5.
3 to 5.
8
1.
86-1.
96
3.
7-9.
2
Agricultural product price index (year-on-year %)
6.
1
12.
0
4.
3-6.
4
8.
1-9.
2
Agricultural production index (year-on-year %)
-5.
6
1.
5
1.
1-3.
0
1.
3-2.
4
Farmers' income changes
(Year-on-year %)
0.
1
12.
5
5.
4-9.
4
9.
1-11.
6
Major domestic agricultural products
2020 year
First half of 2021
Second half of 2021
2021 forecast
Major domestic agricultural products
Major domestic agricultural products
Major domestic agricultural products 2020 year
2020 year
2020 year First half of 2021
First half of 2021
First half of 2021 Second half of 2021
Second half of 2021
Second half of 2021 2021 forecast
2021 forecast
2021 forecast Rice price (THB/ton)
Year-on-year%
10,929
2.
4
9,664
-15.
1
8,700-9,200
-17.
1 to -12.
2
9,182-9,432
-16.
0 to -13.
1
Rice price (THB/ton)
Year-on-year%
Rice price (THB/ton)
Rice price (THB/ton)Year-on-year%
Year-on-year% 10,929
2.
4
10,929
2.
4
9,664
-15.
1
9,664
-15.
1
8,700-9,200
-17.
1 to -12.
2
8,700-9,200
-17.
1 to -12.
2
9,182-9,432
-16.
0 to -13.
1
9,182-9,432
-16.
0 to -13.
1
Rubber price (THB/kg)
Year-on-year%
42.
9
2.
3
55.
2
50.
5
50-53
1.
7-7.
8
52.
6-54.
1
22.
6-26.
1
Rubber price (THB/kg)
Year-on-year%
Rubber price (THB/kg)
Rubber price (THB/kg)Year-on-year%
Year-on-year% 42.
9
2.
3
42.
9
2.
3
55.
2
50.
5
55.
2
50.
5
50-53
1.
7-7.
8
50-53
1.
7-7.
8
52.
6-54.
1
22.
6-26.
1
52.
6-54.
1
22.
6-26.
1
Cassava price (THB/kg)
Year-on-year%
1.
8
-4.
9
2.
0
12.
7
1.
7-1.
9
-5.
3 to 5.
8
1.
86-1.
96
3.
7-9.
2
Cassava price (THB/kg)
Year-on-year%
Cassava price (THB/kg)
Cassava price (THB/kg)Year-on-year%
Year-on-year% 1.
8
-4.
9
1.
8
-4.
9
2.
0
12.
7
2.
0
12.
7
1.
7-1.
9
-5.
3 to 5.
8
1.
7-1.
9
-5.
3 to 5.
8
1.
86-1.
96
3.
7-9.
2
1.
86-1.
96
3.
7-9.
2
Agricultural product price index (year-on-year %)
6.
1
12.
0
4.
3-6.
4
8.
1-9.
2
Agricultural product price index (year-on-year %)
Agricultural product price index (year-on-year %)
Agricultural product price index (year-on-year %) 6.
1
6.
1
12.
0
12.
0
4.
3-6.
4
4.
3-6.
4
8.
1-9.
2
8.
1-9.
2
Agricultural production index (year-on-year %)
-5.
6
1.
5
1.
1-3.
0
1.
3-2.
4
Agricultural production index (year-on-year %)
Agricultural production index (year-on-year %)
Agricultural production index (year-on-year %) -5.
6
-5.
6
1.
5
1.
5
1.
1-3.
0
1.
1-3.
0
1.
3-2.
4
1.
3-2.
4
Farmers' income changes
(Year-on-year %)
0.
1
12.
5
5.
4-9.
4
9.
1-11.
6
Farmers' income changes
(Year-on-year %)
Farmers' income changes
Farmers' income changes(Year-on-year %)
(Year-on-year %) 0.
1
0.
1
12.
5
12.
5
5.
4-9.
4
5.
4-9.
4
9.
1-11.
6
9.
1-11.
6
Source: Data from the Office of Agricultural Economics, compiled and forecasted by Kaitai Research Center (as of July 6, 2021)
Note: The agricultural product price index and agricultural product output index for the first half of 2021 are forecasts based on the data of the Office of Agricultural Economics as of June 9, 2021
.
