Increased linkage between soybean meal price and CBOT soybean price

Introduction:q62mid-June, the Ministry of Agriculture of China issued three safety certificates for the import of genetically modified soybeans, which have limited impact on the domestic soybean industry, mainly because the area under cultivation has been compressed to the limitThe new varieties increase the potential supply sources of imported soybeans, and with the difference between the supply and demand pattern of soybean meal and soybean oil, the linkage between soybean meal prices and CBOT soybean prices will be further enhanced in the next few yearsq62
Since 1995, the number of imported soybeans has increased rapidly, mainly to meet domestic demand for oil and soybean mealWith the increase of national income, the demand for oil and meat consumption increases rapidlyBefore 2007, soybean oil consumption growth rate remained at about 10%, after which the growth rate fell to about 5%Soybean meal consumption growth rate has been maintained at more than 10%Over the next decade, China's economy will continue to grow at a rate of about 7% a year, and national income will continue to growIt is foreseeable that meat consumption will continue to maintain a high growth rate, which will continue to drive consumer demand for soybean meal, thereby increasing imports of soybeansThe increase in imported soybeans mainly meets the increasing domestic consumption demand, while the crowding of domestic soybeans is limitedq62
From the point of view of food security, China's total arable land limit of 1.8 billion mu, so that the government must wheat, corn, rice and other basic food crops and soybeans and other crops to choose between, if we want to maintain the full localization of soybeans, then we must import wheat, corn and other basic grainAfter all, the total amount of 1.8 billion mu of arable land is not enough to make all agricultural products self-sufficient and must be chosenIt is a more suitable strategic choice to take advantage of the two evils, to maintain the self-sufficiency of basic food crops, and to import soybeans with relatively low impactq62
The increasing import of soybeans has led to a weakening of the government's ability to influence soybean prices, especially oil-based soybeans, to follow CBOT soybean prices The addition of three new GM soybean varieties will increase the potential supply of imports and will increase the degree of integration of domestic and foreign markets In the long run, the linkage between domestic soybean oil and soybean meal prices and CBOT soybeans will be enhanced Given that soybean meal consumption is growing at a faster rate than soybean oil consumption by 3 to 5 percentage points, China's imports of soybeans are primarily to meet the demand for soybean meal, not soybean oil Thus, the passive increase in soybean oil supply will have a certain crowding-out effect on palm oil imports and rapeseed production and import q62
The change in the supply and demand pattern of soybean oil and soybean meal makes the rise and fall of CBOT soybean prices in the next few years mainly pass edire to domestic soybean meal prices, rather than domestic soybean oil prices In the short term, domestic soybean imports in June, July and August will exceed 20 million tons, domestic oil plant start-up rate will improve, the second quarter continued to be tight soybean meal supply and demand pattern will be greatly alleviated In the context of supply relief, soybean meal prices are at least weak, if the macro level of some problems, soybean meal prices may appear a certain amount of decline Since the Spring Festival, soybean oil destocking has been relatively slow, soybean oil commercial inventory is still about 900,000 tons, coupled with the next three months of passive increase in soybean oil supply, soybean oil supply and demand will be more relaxed, soybean oil futures prices have the possibility of a new low q62
Overall, the Ministry of Agriculture of China has added three new gm soybean varieties, which have limited impact on the domestic soybean industry, mainly because the area under cultivation has been reduced to the limit The new varieties increase the potential supply sources of imported soybeans, and with the difference between the supply and demand pattern of soybean meal and soybean oil, the linkage between soybean meal prices and CBOT soybean prices will be further enhanced in the next few years q62 Introduction: q62 mid-June, the Ministry of Agriculture of China issued three safety certificates for the import of genetically modified soybeans, which have limited impact on the domestic soybean industry, mainly because the area under cultivation of domestic soybeans has been compressed to the limit The new varieties increase the potential supply sources of imported soybeans, and with the difference between the supply and demand pattern of soybean meal and soybean oil, the linkage between soybean meal prices and CBOT soybean prices will be further enhanced in the next few years q62
Since 1995, the number of imported soybeans has increased rapidly, mainly to meet domestic demand for oil and soybean meal With the increase of national income, the demand for oil and meat consumption increases rapidly Before 2007, soybean oil consumption growth rate remained at about 10%, after which the growth rate fell to about 5% Soybean meal consumption growth rate has been maintained at more than 10% Over the next decade, China's economy will continue to grow at a rate of about 7% a year, and national income will continue to grow It is foreseeable that meat consumption will continue to maintain a high growth rate, which will continue to drive consumer demand for soybean meal, thereby increasing imports of soybeans The increase in imported soybeans mainly meets the increasing domestic consumption demand, while the crowding of domestic soybeans is limited q62
From the point of view of food security, China's total arable land limit of 1.8 billion mu, so that the government must wheat, corn, rice and other basic food crops and soybeans and other crops to choose between, if we want to maintain the full localization of soybeans, then we must import wheat, corn and other basic grain After all, the total amount of 1.8 billion mu of arable land is not enough to make all agricultural products self-sufficient and must be chosen It is a more suitable strategic choice to take advantage of the two evils, to maintain the self-sufficiency of basic food crops, and to import soybeans with relatively low impact q62
The increasing import of soybeans has led to a weakening of the government's ability to influence soybean prices, especially oil-based soybeans, to follow CBOT soybean prices The addition of three new GM soybean varieties will increase the potential supply of imports and will increase the degree of integration of domestic and foreign markets In the long run, the linkage between domestic soybean oil and soybean meal prices and CBOT soybeans will be enhanced Given that soybean meal consumption is growing at a faster rate than soybean oil consumption by 3 to 5 percentage points, China's imports of soybeans are primarily to meet the demand for soybean meal, not soybean oil Thus, the passive increase in soybean oil supply will have a certain crowding-out effect on palm oil imports and rapeseed production and import q62
The change in the supply and demand pattern of soybean oil and soybean meal makes the rise and fall of CBOT soybean prices in the next few years mainly pass edire to domestic soybean meal prices, rather than domestic soybean oil prices In the short term, domestic soybean imports in June, July and August will exceed 20 million tons, domestic oil plant start-up rate will improve, the second quarter continued to be tight soybean meal supply and demand pattern will be greatly alleviated In the context of supply relief, soybean meal prices are at least weak, if the macro level of some problems, soybean meal prices may appear a certain amount of decline Since the Spring Festival, soybean oil destocking has been relatively slow, soybean oil commercial inventory is still about 900,000 tons, coupled with the next three months of passive increase in soybean oil supply, soybean oil supply and demand will be more relaxed, soybean oil futures prices have the possibility of a new low q62
Overall, the Ministry of Agriculture of China has added three new gm soybean varieties, which have limited impact on the domestic soybean industry, mainly because the area under cultivation has been reduced to the limit The new varieties increase the potential supply sources of imported soybeans, and with the difference between the supply and demand pattern of soybean meal and soybean oil, the linkage between soybean meal prices and CBOT soybean prices will be further enhanced in the next few years q62