International crude oil to maintain a high volatility market is gradually entering an eventful summer.
Last Update: 2020-07-30
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★ a week's summary
the daily trend chart of the Shanghai fuel. (Source: Shanghai Mid-term)
oil market is entering an eventful summer
, NYMEX crude oil has been around $61-67 per barrel for several months, demand remains strong and supply is interrupted anxiety is a key factor supporting oil prices to remain high. Recently, the biggest storm in 60 years swept through the two major oil exporters, once again become the trigger for rising international oil prices, so how will the fragile international oil market face the upcoming summer oil peak and hurricane-prone season?
first, summer is the hurricane-prone season in the northern hemisphere, and a strong hurricane is likely to cause significant damage to oil facilities along the coast. Many investors will still remember the summer of 2005, after another hurricane, when disaster struck again and again, and "Katrina" even disrupted production at oil facilities along the U.S. coast of Mexico, where some refineries have not yet fully recovered. In the summer of 2006, oil prices were pushed to a high of $80 in a wave of hurricane concerns. In the end, there were no hurricanes that severely damaged oil facilities after the hurricane season, and throughout the second half of 2006, oil prices were largely in the process of falling, falling as low as nearly $50, or nearly 40 percent. A year has passed, and the 2007 hurricane season is coming, and with this year's El Nino more severe than in previous years, the U.S. Bureau of Oceanography expects a very high probability of a major hurricane in the northern hemisphere this summer. If it does, it will have a psychological impact on investors, pushing up oil prices. Hurricane Gunu in the Persian Gulf, which disrupted Oman's oil exports for three days and hit southern Iran, has sent NYMEX crude futures prices above $67. It is conceivable that this summer, international oil prices will be an extraordinary summer.
second, OPEC's reluctance to cut production in the near future may partly help international oil prices. Despite repeated calls from the EIA for OPEC to increase production, OPEC officials have made it clear that there is no need to hold an emergency meeting before the September meeting to control prices by increasing production unless they see a significant drop in oil inventories in the oil-consuming countries. If we interpret OPEC's comments as a way to determine production increases or decreases in the future by judging whether oil on the international market is in the balance between supply and demand, then perhaps we will see a very interesting scene in the international oil market in the future. Because in recent years, the international oil market supply and demand is in fact in fact a general balance, even slightly greater than demand, but in some areas of the supply and demand imbalance. China and the United States, the world's two largest oil consumers, have just implemented strategic oil reserves since the last two years, with limited initial volumes, and the Bush administration announced earlier this year that it plans to expand its strategic oil reserves from 700 million barrels to 1.5 billion barrels after nearly two years of soaring oil prices. From the weekly U.S. Energy Agency's crude oil inventory report, we can also see the trend of crude oil inventories continue to rise. This means that OPEC will decide on production increases or decreases in the future through a more market-oriented approach, and that the U.S. government does not want to use its oil reserves, but rather hopes that OPEC will ease the rise in oil prices by cutting production. So this summer, the game of political power may have a major impact on oil prices in the event of a hurricane or strong consumer demand that has led to a drop in U.S. crude inventories.
third, the upcoming summer oil peak will make international oil prices easy to rise and fall. The summer oil boom is not just in the United States, it should even extend to the entire northern hemisphere. Driving trips, power shortages, etc. will increase the demand for crude oil. Summer is also the traditional oil consumption season, at least in recent years, summer is the year when the price of crude oil peak. $70 in 2005 and $80 in 2006, so what about 2007?
in any case, the above is based on historical trends derived from the inference, whether a hurricane will occur, whether OPEC will insist on not cutting production, and the peak of consumption in the end will affect the oil market, is still unknown. However, from the technical graph of NYMEX crude oil futures, the last three months to see the oil price continued to be in a strong triangle finishing, expanded to a year, it is very easy left and right shoulder "V" type reversal, the strong technology foreshadows the future oil prices hit historical highs are very likely, and in a fundamental and very easy to appear in the coming of many factors, we do not have much reason to doubt that this summer oil prices will continue to go up to the next level, perhaps eventually like the end of the season. NYMEX Market Related Futures Position Structure published by the
★ CFTC: (as of June 5)
Long Long Long
2 Heating Oil
light crude oil
increaseor or decrease
. Heating oil No. 2
light crude oil
percentage of total positions
2 heating oil
Light Crude oil
2 heating oil
light crude oil
★ OPEC oil price chart
OPEC oil price chart. (Source: Shanghai Medium)
★-related oil prices
New York WTI crude oil July
Singapore high sulfur 180cst
Shanghai fuel oil futures 0709
★ other relevant inventory data
the U.S. Energy Information Association (EIA) crude oil and crude oil product inventory data comparison table: (million s)
change from the previous week
0.40% increase in
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