Key data analysis! Zhong Nanshan predicts that the epidemic will end by April

Editor's note: novel coronavirus pneumonia has attracted public attention After statistics, the number of close contacts, the number of close contacts in medical observation period, the number of suspected cases per day and the number of cases diagnosed daily and cumulative number were recorded China's novel coronavirus pneumonia epidemic is expected to slow down rapidly in February 11th, and the peak is expected to appear in mid 2, which will probably end in April, according to Sina's financial report, which was released by Reuters in Guangzhou in February 11th How to judge the development of epidemic situation? Will it be as Zhong Lao said? Next, we will comb several key data indicators of new coronavirus pneumonia in the near future to judge the development trend of the epidemic The number of novel coronavirus contacts during the medical observation period has stabilized The criteria for judging the close contacts of the epidemic are effectively controlled by the national health and Health Commission in January 22nd The new management plan for suspicious exposed persons and close contacts of pneumonia caused by new coronavirus (Second Edition) Close contacts generally include the following four types: 1 People who live, study, work or have close contact with the case 2 Medical staff, family members or other personnel who have similar close contact with the case 3 Take the same vehicle as the case and have close contact personnel 4 After investigation, the on-site investigators are evaluated to be in line with other personnel who are in contact with close contacts Once the close contacts are screened and confirmed, they will enter the medical observation period, record the body temperature and respiratory symptoms in detail, and decide whether to include the suspected cases according to the observation and the diagnosis standard of the suspected cases The medical observation period is 14 days If there is no relevant clinical symptoms, the medical observation can be relieved Recent provincial epidemic reports show that close contacts are the main source of suspected and confirmed cases According to the data released by the National Health Commission, since February 4, the number of close contacts in the medical observation period has remained stable at about 188000, with the highest value (189660) on February 7 Although the number of close contacts is easily limited by the supply of social resources, for example, due to the lack of supply of social resources, some close contacts can not be identified and included in the management scope However, after nearly 20 days of social investigation and statistics, most of the close contacts should have been included in the epidemic control system This indicator shows that the development of the epidemic has been effectively controlled and is currently in a stable period of nearly 8 days Although there is no significant decline, it can be expected to usher in the turning point of the epidemic Data source: Official Website of national health and Health Commission; drawing: medical words As the main route of transmission of sars-cov-2) is through respiratory droplets and contact, the decrease of the number of close contacts in the medical observation period will mean the decrease of the number of people exposed to the virus Under the condition that other conditions remain unchanged, the number of suspected and confirmed cases will inevitably decrease, and then the inflection point of the epidemic will appear Therefore, compared with the number of suspected cases and confirmed cases, the number of close contacts in the medical observation period can more prospectively indicate whether the inflection point of the epidemic is coming The number of existing suspected cases began to decline, but the number of new suspected cases per day has not declined significantly Although the diagnosis standard of suspected cases has changed significantly in the previous five versions of the diagnosis and treatment guidelines, the main diagnosis standard is still combined with the epidemiological history and clinical symptoms to judge Statistics show that the daily increase of suspected cases is still around 3300-4000, and the highest value (5328 cases) appears on February 5, which may be related to the fifth edition of the diagnosis and treatment guidelines relaxing the diagnostic standards of suspected cases in Hubei Province, indicating that the development of the current epidemic situation is still very serious Data source: Official Website of the national health and Health Commission; drawing: on the other hand, the number of existing suspected cases continued to increase for more than ten days, and began to decline since February 9, which has been declining for three consecutive days Its highest value (28942 cases) appeared on February 8, and its growth rate also dropped from the initial 100% to negative growth On February 9, the number of suspected cases decreased by 5353 per day, 18.5%; on February 10, 8.1%; on February 11, 25.9%, 5608 per day The rapid decline of the existing suspected cases shows that the current diagnosis speed has been greatly improved Some suspected cases have been transferred to confirmed cases, or the suspected cases have been eliminated through virus nucleic acid detection or gene sequencing The existing suspected cases are like the case pool of confirmed cases, which is equivalent to the stock cases When the number of suspected cases drops to a certain value, the number of existing confirmed cases will decline significantly (new confirmed cases are less than the sum of cured and dead cases), which indicates that the epidemic officially enters the decline channel Therefore, simply looking at the number of suspected cases is not enough to judge the dynamic change of the epidemic situation The number of confirmed cases continues to increase, the number of daily (confirmed + suspected) cases begins to decline, and the epidemic situation is getting better According to the diagnosis and treatment guidelines, the biological samples of suspected cases or clinical diagnosis cases can be determined as confirmed cases only when they are tested positive by virus nucleic acid, or the gene sequencing is highly homologous with 2019-ncov Statistics show that the number of new confirmed cases per day increased from more than 1000 last month to about 3000 From February 10, the number of new confirmed cases per day began to decrease significantly, but still higher than 2000 cases per day The rapid detection of confirmed cases leads to the rapid increase of confirmed cases, which is totally different from the rapid increase of confirmed cases caused by out of control epidemic situation At present, the continuous and rapid increase of confirmed cases every day should be analyzed based on the changes in the number of suspected cases As the number of existing suspected cases began to decline rapidly, it is more likely to be a positive change brought about by the increase in the speed of diagnosis In addition, since the 5th, Wuhan, the core region, has "made every effort to achieve the full collection of receivables" and increased the identification and isolation of "four groups of people", which is one of the reasons for the continuous and rapid increase of recently confirmed cases The real number of single day cases should be more optimistic than the data of confirmed cases At the same time, we should see that at present, the cumulative number of confirmed cases has exceeded 40000 According to statistics on November 11, 38800 cases (including 8204 severe cases) have been confirmed, with a large number of cases, and still maintain a high growth rate, suggesting that the current epidemic situation is still very severe, the turning point has not yet appeared, and the epidemic prevention and control will continue for some time Data source: Official Website of the national health and Health Commission; drawing: in addition to medical words, statistical data also show that the number of cases cured and discharged every day has increased rapidly At present, the cumulative number has reached more than 4740, and the number of newly cured and discharged patients per day has reached more than 740 The case fatality rate of the disease has decreased from 3.19% on January 24 to 2.49% at present (data on February 11: 1113 cases / 44653 cases) The total number of confirmed cases and suspected cases per day decreased rapidly from about 5000 cases in the early stage, and even decreased by - 2380 and - 3593 cases per day on February 9 and February 11, respectively, which indicated that the epidemic began to change in a better direction, with fewer new cases, more cured patients and lower mortality Data source: Official Website of the national health and Health Commission; drawing: the data analysis above the conclusion of medical words shows that the current epidemic situation is still severe: the increase of confirmed cases per day is still 2000-3000; the cumulative confirmed cases have exceeded 40000, and still maintain a rapid growth; the number of people in the medical observation period and the number of suspected cases remain at a high level But we are also pleased to see that the number of close contacts in the medical observation period has been basically stable and is no longer increasing rapidly; the number of existing suspected cases has declined rapidly; the number of new cases per day has begun to decrease Therefore, we can judge that the growth momentum of the epidemic has been initially curbed and the epidemic is developing in a good direction We firmly believe that the epidemic prevention and control has been as Zhong Lao said, the growth rate of the epidemic slows down, the peak is about to appear, and the victory is ahead Finally, let's applaud all the "rebels" who are fighting in the front line of anti epidemic! 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