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As the COVID-19 pandemic continues, the risk of death from infection (the risk of death for all infected persons, including asymptomatic and mildly infected persons) is critical to measuring the burden of death caused by COVID-19 in the coming months or years.
New York City is the hardest hit by new crown pneumonia in the United States, and researchers modeled the risk of death from severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection in the New York area of the United States.
In this model-based study, researchers developed a population network model reasoning system that uses existing case, mortality and mobility data to estimate potential SARS-CoV-2 infection rates in New York City during the spring 2020 pandemic.
based on the above model, the researchers further estimated the risk of infection deaths among all ages and five age groups between 1 March and 6 June 20≥20 (i.e., before the closure and reopening of the city).
between March 1 and June 6, 2020, 205,639 New York City residents were laboratory confirmed to have been infected with SARS-CoV-2, and 21,447 were confirmed to have died from COVID-19.
estimated the overall risk of infection death in New York City at 1.39 percent.
researchers estimated that the risk of infection death in the two oldest age groups (65-74 and ≥75 years) was much higher than in the younger group, with a cumulative estimated risk of infection deaths of 0.116 per cent for those aged 25-44 years. The cumulative risk of infection death was 0.939 percent for people aged 45-64, 4.87 percent for people aged 65-74, and 14.2 percent for people aged 75 and older.
estimates that people aged 65-74 have a 6.72 per cent risk of dying from infection per week and those aged 75 and over have a 19.1 per cent risk of dying from infection per week.
study systematically studied infection rates and mortality rates during the New York City spring 2020 neo-crown pneumonia pandemic, closely monitored infection rates and population health outcomes, and developed appropriate public health responses at a time when the COVID-19 pandemic was spreading was an important means of containing the epidemic.
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