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Source | Muge Academic Recently, the epidemic has reappeared in many places across the country
.
On October 28th, the Lanzhou University "New Crown Pneumonia Epidemic Epidemic Global Prediction System" website released the prediction of the COVID-19 epidemic in domestic tour groups in October 2021, which respectively affected the epidemic situation in Beijing, Shaanxi, Gansu, Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, Hebei and other places.
Make the latest predictions
.
The details are as follows: People from all walks of life who are concerned about the results of the epidemic forecast: Hello, everyone! Thank you very much for your eager attention and patience! Here, we sincerely apologize to you for releasing the forecast results more than ten days after the outbreak of this round of epidemic! Lanzhou University's "Global Prediction System for New Coronary Pneumonia Epidemics" Since its launch on May 25, 2020, it has made 16 predictions of domestic outbreaks and has received extensive attention and support from all walks of life, but we are still working to improve the accuracy of predictions , Regularly improve and improve the forecasting system
.
The outbreak of this round of domestic tour groups coincided with a period of system improvement and upgrading.
The complicated travel routes involved in the epidemic, multiple provinces, and multiple branches of Delta virus transmission have also brought new challenges and pressures to the epidemic forecast
.
The Epidemic Prediction Team of the Western Ecological Safety Collaborative Innovation Center of Lanzhou University is actively cooperating with the requirements of the Lanzhou epidemic prevention and control policy, while urgently studying and judging the transmission chain and development situation of the current round of the epidemic, upgrading the system and predicting the epidemic.
A comprehensive forecast has been made on the overall epidemic situation in three provinces, seven cities and the country; based on the analysis of the spread chain and development trend of the current round of the epidemic, combined with our previous research, we have put forward relevant epidemic prevention suggestions, and sincerely hope that the country and provinces Control is helpful
.
Thank you again for your attention and support to our team's epidemic prediction work! The epidemic prediction team of the Western Eco-Safety Collaborative Innovation Center of Lanzhou University October 28, 2021 The national forecast of the new crown pneumonia epidemic in 2021 tour groups Since October 16, 2021, the local confirmed cases of new crown pneumonia and local asymptomatic infections have been reported nationwide.
As of 24:00 on October 27, a total of 271 confirmed cases have been reported across the country (local, data source: National Health Commission)
.
According to the latest epidemic data, the prediction results of Lanzhou University's "New Crown Pneumonia Epidemic Epidemic Global Prediction System" show that under the timely and effective secondary control measures taken by the current government [1] (solid blue line), the current round of epidemics across the country is expected It will be controlled around November 9, and the cumulative number of confirmed cases is expected to be about 592 (415-771, between the two blue dotted lines); if three-level control measures are taken [2] (red dotted line), or there are still pending The discovered chain of infection is expected to be brought under control throughout the country around November 16, and the cumulative number of confirmed cases may reach about 2,416
.
Follow-up will update the forecast based on the latest development of the epidemic
.
(October 28, 2021) According to the official website, the secondary response measure refers to that when an infected case occurs, the provincial headquarters immediately organizes command members and experts to analyze and judge the impact of the public health emergency and its impact.
The development trend is comprehensively evaluated, and the provincial people’s government decides to initiate level II emergency response, and issues an order to initiate relevant emergency procedures to relevant units.
For areas with moderate risks, implement the strategy of “external defense input, internal non-proliferation”, and make it possible as soon as possible.
Order to restore normal production and life order
.
The three-level response measure refers to that when the number of infection cases has accumulated, the prefecture-level public health emergency command agency directly manages the county (city, district) under the direct control of the province immediately organizes members and experts of each unit to conduct analysis and judgment.
Conduct a comprehensive assessment of the impact of the incident and its development trend, the prefecture-level and listed people’s government decides to initiate a level III emergency response, and issues an order to initiate relevant emergency procedures to all relevant units, and implement "external defense" in areas with low epidemic risk "Input" strategy to fully restore normal production and life order
.
Beijing's forecast of new crown pneumonia epidemic for tour groups in 2021.
Since Beijing reported on October 19, 2021, local confirmed cases of new crown pneumonia and local asymptomatic infections, as of 24:00 on October 27, Beijing has reported a total of 23 confirmed cases ( Local, data source: National Health Commission)
.
According to the latest epidemic data, the prediction results of Lanzhou University's "New Coronary Pneumonia Epidemic Epidemic Forecast System" show that under the timely and effective secondary control measures taken by the current government[1] (solid blue line), the current round of epidemic in Beijing is expected It will be controlled around November 04, and the cumulative number of confirmed cases is estimated to be about 49 (30-69, between the two blue dotted lines); if three-level control measures [2] (red dotted line) are taken, or there are still pending The chain of infection found in Beijing is expected to be brought under control around November 17, and the cumulative number of confirmed cases may reach about 194
.
Follow-up will update the forecast based on the latest development of the epidemic
.
(October 28, 2021) The forecast of the 2021 new crown pneumonia epidemic in Inner Mongolia for tour groups.
Since the Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region reported local confirmed cases of new crown pneumonia and local asymptomatic infections on October 16, 2021, as of 24:00 on October 27, Inner Mongolia A total of 116 confirmed cases have been reported, the Alxa League has reported a total of 97 confirmed cases, and the Xilin Gol League has reported a total of 15 confirmed cases (local, data source: National Health Commission)
.
Figure 1 Forecast results of the epidemic situation in Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region According to the latest epidemic data, the forecast results of the "New Coronary Pneumonia Epidemic Forecast System" of Lanzhou University show that under the timely and effective secondary control measures taken by the current government [1] (solid blue line) ), the current round of Inner Mongolia epidemic is expected to be controlled around November 7, and the cumulative number of confirmed cases is expected to be about 207 (148-265); the current round of the Alxa League is expected to be controlled around November 7, and the cumulative number of confirmed cases The number of cases is expected to be about 178 (127-230); the current round of the Xilin Gol League epidemic is expected to be brought under control around November 1, and the cumulative number of confirmed cases is expected to be about 19 (14-24)
.
Figure 2 Forecast results of the epidemic situation in the Alxa League Figure 3 Forecast results of the epidemic situation in the Xilin Gol League If three-level control measures are adopted, or there are still undiscovered infection chains, the current round of Inner Mongolia epidemic is expected to be controlled around November 16.
The cumulative number of confirmed cases may be It will reach about 419; the current round of the Alxa League is expected to be controlled around November 16, and the cumulative number of confirmed cases may reach about 364; the current round of the Xilin Gol League is expected to be controlled around November 6, and the cumulative number of confirmed cases The number of cases may reach about 38
.
Follow-up will update the forecast based on the latest development of the epidemic
.
(October 28, 2021) Shaanxi's forecast of COVID-19 outbreak in tour groups in 2021.
Since Shaanxi Province reported local confirmed cases of new coronary pneumonia and local asymptomatic infections on October 17, 2021, as of 24:00 on October 24, Shaanxi A total of 14 confirmed cases have been reported (local, data source: National Health Commission)
.
According to the latest epidemic data, the prediction results of Lanzhou University's "New Crown Pneumonia Epidemic Epidemic Forecast System" show that under the timely and effective secondary control measures taken by the current government [1] (solid blue line), the current round of epidemic in Shaanxi is expected It will be controlled around October 31, and the cumulative number of confirmed cases is expected to be about 18 (12-23, between the two blue dotted lines); if three-level control measures [2] (red dotted line) are taken, or there are still pending The chain of infection found in Shaanxi is expected to be brought under control around November 3, and the cumulative number of confirmed cases may reach about 50
.
Follow-up will update the forecast based on the latest development of the epidemic
.
(October 28, 2021) The forecast of the 2021 new coronary pneumonia epidemic situation in Gansu for tour groups.
Since the local confirmed cases of new coronary pneumonia and local asymptomatic infections were reported in Gansu Province on October 19, 2021, as of 24:00 on October 27, Gansu The province has reported a total of 63 confirmed cases, Lanzhou has reported a total of 45 confirmed cases, Zhangye City has reported a total of 11 confirmed cases, and Jiayuguan City has reported a total of 5 confirmed cases (local, data source: National Health Commission)
.
Figure 1 Forecast results of the epidemic situation in Gansu Province According to the latest epidemic data, the updated forecast results of Lanzhou University's "Global Prediction System for New Coronary Pneumonia Epidemics" show that under the timely and effective secondary control measures taken by the current government [1] (blue solid Line), the current round of the epidemic in Gansu Province is expected to be brought under control around November 4.
The cumulative number of confirmed cases is expected to be about 94 (67-120, between the two blue dotted lines); the current round of the epidemic in Lanzhou is expected to be 11 It will be controlled around 3rd, and the cumulative number of confirmed cases is expected to be about 59 (43-75, between the two blue dotted lines); the current round of the epidemic in Zhangye City is expected to be controlled around November 1, and the cumulative number of confirmed cases is expected About 19 people (13-24, between the two blue dotted lines); the current round of the epidemic in Jiayuguan City is expected to be controlled around November 1.
The cumulative number of confirmed cases is expected to be about 8 people (5-12, two blue dotted lines) Between the dotted lines)
.
Figure 2 Epidemic prediction results of Lanzhou City Figure 3 Epidemic prediction results of Zhangye City Figure 4 If three-level control measures are adopted for the prediction results of Jiayuguan City's epidemic situation [2] (red dotted line), or there are still undiscovered infection chains, this round of epidemics in Gansu Province is expected It will be controlled around November 7, and the cumulative number of confirmed cases may reach about 161; the current round of the epidemic in Lanzhou is expected to be controlled around November 7, and the cumulative number of confirmed cases may reach about 100; this round in Zhangye City The epidemic is expected to be controlled around November 3, and the cumulative number of confirmed cases may reach about 34; the current round of the epidemic in Jiayuguan City is expected to be controlled around November 5, and the cumulative number of confirmed cases may reach about 16
.
Follow-up will update the forecast based on the latest development of the epidemic
.
(October 28, 2021) The forecast of the 2021 new crown pneumonia epidemic in Ningxia for tour groups Since Ningxia Autonomous Region reported the local confirmed cases of new crown pneumonia and local asymptomatic infections on October 18, 2021, as of 24:00 on October 27, Ningxia The autonomous region has reported a total of 24 confirmed cases, Yinchuan City has reported a total of 13 confirmed cases, and Wuzhong City has reported a total of 10 confirmed cases (local, data source: National Health Commission)
.
Figure 1 Forecast results of epidemic situation in Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region According to the latest epidemic data, the updated forecast results of Lanzhou University's "Global Prediction System for New Coronary Pneumonia Epidemics" show that under the timely and effective secondary control measures taken by the current government [1] (blue Solid line), the current round of the epidemic in Ningxia Autonomous Region is expected to be brought under control around November 5, and the cumulative number of confirmed cases is expected to be about 37 (26-48, between the two blue dotted lines); the current round of the epidemic in Yinchuan City is expected to be It will be controlled around November 4th, and the cumulative number of confirmed cases is expected to be about 18 (13-23, between the two blue dotted lines); the current round of the epidemic in Wuzhong City is expected to be controlled around November 3rd, and the cumulative number of confirmed cases Estimated to be about 15 people (8-23, between the two blue dotted lines)
.
Figure 2 Outbreak prediction results in Wuzhong City Figure 3 Outbreak prediction results in Yinchuan City, if three-level control measures [2] (red dotted line) are adopted, or there are still undiscovered infection chains, the current round of Ningxia epidemic is expected to be controlled around November 11 , The cumulative number of confirmed cases may reach about 72; the current round of the epidemic in Wuzhong City is expected to be controlled around November 8, and the cumulative number of confirmed cases may reach about 34; the current round of epidemic in Yinchuan City is expected to be around November 8 Under control, the cumulative number of confirmed cases may reach about 30
.
Follow-up will update the forecast based on the latest development of the epidemic
.
(October 28, 2021) 2021 new crown pneumonia epidemic forecast for tour groups in Hebei Since Hebei Province reported local confirmed cases of new crown pneumonia and local asymptomatic infections on October 20, 2021, as of 24:00 on October 27, Hebei A total of 3 confirmed cases have been reported in the province (local, data source: National Health Commission)
.
According to the latest epidemic data, the updated forecast results of Lanzhou University's "Global Forecast System for New Coronary Pneumonia Epidemics" show that under the timely and effective secondary control measures taken by the current government [1] (solid blue line), Hebei Province is in this round The epidemic is expected to be brought under control around November 2, and the cumulative number of confirmed cases is expected to be about 10 (6-13, between the two blue dotted lines)
.
If three-level control measures are taken [2] (red dotted line), or there are still undiscovered chains of infection, the current round of the epidemic in Hebei is expected to be controlled around November 9, and the cumulative number of confirmed cases may reach about 26
.
Follow-up will update the forecast based on the latest development of the epidemic
.
(October 28, 2021) The world's first global epidemic prediction system has previously accurately predicted epidemics in many places.
Since the global outbreak of new crown pneumonia, it was organized and led by Professor Huang Jianping, Director of the Collaborative Innovation Center for Western Ecological Security, Lanzhou University The central team successfully developed the "New Coronary Pneumonia Epidemic Prediction System" with all the intellectual property rights of Lanzhou University
.
How powerful is this system? In August, it accurately predicted the epidemic situation in Henan and Yangzhou
.
In September, the epidemic situation in Putian and Xiamen was accurately predicted again
.
According to reports, the epidemic forecast system of Lanzhou University "prediction is mainly divided into daily forecasts and sudden epidemic forecasts
.
Daily work includes forecasts for the future one day, one month and two quarters for more than 190 countries around the world, every 10 days Update monthly and seasonal forecast data
.
"Screenshot of the "New Coronary Pneumonia Epidemic Global Prediction System" website "The system is a prediction system that combines the statistical-dynamic method of climate prediction with epidemiological models, and is a fusion of interdisciplinary knowledge The innovative result of this
.
Traditional epidemiological models are only suitable for regional simulation and forecasting, while the global forecasting system we have established covers a wider space and does global forecasting
.
” Professor Huang Jianping said
.
The flow chart of the "Global Prediction System for New Coronary Pneumonia Epidemics" The "Global Prediction System for New Coronary Pneumonia Epidemics" (GPCP) is based on real-time updated epidemic data to reliably predict the daily and seasonal new incidences of new coronary pneumonia in each country
.
Previously, foreign universities and related institutions had launched an epidemic prediction system, but they only focused on the prediction of the domestic epidemic in the United States.
Similarly, there are other domestic schools that have predicted the domestic epidemic, but they did not continue
.
"What we are doing is a global prediction system, and it is currently the only system in the world that insists on making predictions
.
" On June 8, the National Science Review published an online publication of Professor Huang Jianping’s team titled "New Crown The latest results of "The oscillation-outbreaks characteristic of the COVID-19 pandemic" reveals that the sudden rise in oscillation is the main feature of the global spread of the new crown pneumonia epidemic
.
Among them, the fluctuations are mainly affected by seasonal changes and the lag in case reporting, while short-term mutations are mainly caused by the gathering of people
.
This achievement provides an important theoretical basis for the scientific modeling and parameterization of the global new crown epidemic
.
On January 31 this year, Zhong Nanshan, an academician of the Chinese Academy of Engineering, also praised: "The prediction of the'Global New Crown Epidemic Prediction System' developed by the Lanzhou University Western Ecological Safety Joint Construction Center is quite reliable
.
" And WeChat group
.
On October 28th, the Lanzhou University "New Crown Pneumonia Epidemic Epidemic Global Prediction System" website released the prediction of the COVID-19 epidemic in domestic tour groups in October 2021, which respectively affected the epidemic situation in Beijing, Shaanxi, Gansu, Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, Hebei and other places.
Make the latest predictions
.
The details are as follows: People from all walks of life who are concerned about the results of the epidemic forecast: Hello, everyone! Thank you very much for your eager attention and patience! Here, we sincerely apologize to you for releasing the forecast results more than ten days after the outbreak of this round of epidemic! Lanzhou University's "Global Prediction System for New Coronary Pneumonia Epidemics" Since its launch on May 25, 2020, it has made 16 predictions of domestic outbreaks and has received extensive attention and support from all walks of life, but we are still working to improve the accuracy of predictions , Regularly improve and improve the forecasting system
.
The outbreak of this round of domestic tour groups coincided with a period of system improvement and upgrading.
The complicated travel routes involved in the epidemic, multiple provinces, and multiple branches of Delta virus transmission have also brought new challenges and pressures to the epidemic forecast
.
The Epidemic Prediction Team of the Western Ecological Safety Collaborative Innovation Center of Lanzhou University is actively cooperating with the requirements of the Lanzhou epidemic prevention and control policy, while urgently studying and judging the transmission chain and development situation of the current round of the epidemic, upgrading the system and predicting the epidemic.
A comprehensive forecast has been made on the overall epidemic situation in three provinces, seven cities and the country; based on the analysis of the spread chain and development trend of the current round of the epidemic, combined with our previous research, we have put forward relevant epidemic prevention suggestions, and sincerely hope that the country and provinces Control is helpful
.
Thank you again for your attention and support to our team's epidemic prediction work! The epidemic prediction team of the Western Eco-Safety Collaborative Innovation Center of Lanzhou University October 28, 2021 The national forecast of the new crown pneumonia epidemic in 2021 tour groups Since October 16, 2021, the local confirmed cases of new crown pneumonia and local asymptomatic infections have been reported nationwide.
As of 24:00 on October 27, a total of 271 confirmed cases have been reported across the country (local, data source: National Health Commission)
.
According to the latest epidemic data, the prediction results of Lanzhou University's "New Crown Pneumonia Epidemic Epidemic Global Prediction System" show that under the timely and effective secondary control measures taken by the current government [1] (solid blue line), the current round of epidemics across the country is expected It will be controlled around November 9, and the cumulative number of confirmed cases is expected to be about 592 (415-771, between the two blue dotted lines); if three-level control measures are taken [2] (red dotted line), or there are still pending The discovered chain of infection is expected to be brought under control throughout the country around November 16, and the cumulative number of confirmed cases may reach about 2,416
.
Follow-up will update the forecast based on the latest development of the epidemic
.
(October 28, 2021) According to the official website, the secondary response measure refers to that when an infected case occurs, the provincial headquarters immediately organizes command members and experts to analyze and judge the impact of the public health emergency and its impact.
The development trend is comprehensively evaluated, and the provincial people’s government decides to initiate level II emergency response, and issues an order to initiate relevant emergency procedures to relevant units.
For areas with moderate risks, implement the strategy of “external defense input, internal non-proliferation”, and make it possible as soon as possible.
Order to restore normal production and life order
.
The three-level response measure refers to that when the number of infection cases has accumulated, the prefecture-level public health emergency command agency directly manages the county (city, district) under the direct control of the province immediately organizes members and experts of each unit to conduct analysis and judgment.
Conduct a comprehensive assessment of the impact of the incident and its development trend, the prefecture-level and listed people’s government decides to initiate a level III emergency response, and issues an order to initiate relevant emergency procedures to all relevant units, and implement "external defense" in areas with low epidemic risk "Input" strategy to fully restore normal production and life order
.
Beijing's forecast of new crown pneumonia epidemic for tour groups in 2021.
Since Beijing reported on October 19, 2021, local confirmed cases of new crown pneumonia and local asymptomatic infections, as of 24:00 on October 27, Beijing has reported a total of 23 confirmed cases ( Local, data source: National Health Commission)
.
According to the latest epidemic data, the prediction results of Lanzhou University's "New Coronary Pneumonia Epidemic Epidemic Forecast System" show that under the timely and effective secondary control measures taken by the current government[1] (solid blue line), the current round of epidemic in Beijing is expected It will be controlled around November 04, and the cumulative number of confirmed cases is estimated to be about 49 (30-69, between the two blue dotted lines); if three-level control measures [2] (red dotted line) are taken, or there are still pending The chain of infection found in Beijing is expected to be brought under control around November 17, and the cumulative number of confirmed cases may reach about 194
.
Follow-up will update the forecast based on the latest development of the epidemic
.
(October 28, 2021) The forecast of the 2021 new crown pneumonia epidemic in Inner Mongolia for tour groups.
Since the Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region reported local confirmed cases of new crown pneumonia and local asymptomatic infections on October 16, 2021, as of 24:00 on October 27, Inner Mongolia A total of 116 confirmed cases have been reported, the Alxa League has reported a total of 97 confirmed cases, and the Xilin Gol League has reported a total of 15 confirmed cases (local, data source: National Health Commission)
.
Figure 1 Forecast results of the epidemic situation in Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region According to the latest epidemic data, the forecast results of the "New Coronary Pneumonia Epidemic Forecast System" of Lanzhou University show that under the timely and effective secondary control measures taken by the current government [1] (solid blue line) ), the current round of Inner Mongolia epidemic is expected to be controlled around November 7, and the cumulative number of confirmed cases is expected to be about 207 (148-265); the current round of the Alxa League is expected to be controlled around November 7, and the cumulative number of confirmed cases The number of cases is expected to be about 178 (127-230); the current round of the Xilin Gol League epidemic is expected to be brought under control around November 1, and the cumulative number of confirmed cases is expected to be about 19 (14-24)
.
Figure 2 Forecast results of the epidemic situation in the Alxa League Figure 3 Forecast results of the epidemic situation in the Xilin Gol League If three-level control measures are adopted, or there are still undiscovered infection chains, the current round of Inner Mongolia epidemic is expected to be controlled around November 16.
The cumulative number of confirmed cases may be It will reach about 419; the current round of the Alxa League is expected to be controlled around November 16, and the cumulative number of confirmed cases may reach about 364; the current round of the Xilin Gol League is expected to be controlled around November 6, and the cumulative number of confirmed cases The number of cases may reach about 38
.
Follow-up will update the forecast based on the latest development of the epidemic
.
(October 28, 2021) Shaanxi's forecast of COVID-19 outbreak in tour groups in 2021.
Since Shaanxi Province reported local confirmed cases of new coronary pneumonia and local asymptomatic infections on October 17, 2021, as of 24:00 on October 24, Shaanxi A total of 14 confirmed cases have been reported (local, data source: National Health Commission)
.
According to the latest epidemic data, the prediction results of Lanzhou University's "New Crown Pneumonia Epidemic Epidemic Forecast System" show that under the timely and effective secondary control measures taken by the current government [1] (solid blue line), the current round of epidemic in Shaanxi is expected It will be controlled around October 31, and the cumulative number of confirmed cases is expected to be about 18 (12-23, between the two blue dotted lines); if three-level control measures [2] (red dotted line) are taken, or there are still pending The chain of infection found in Shaanxi is expected to be brought under control around November 3, and the cumulative number of confirmed cases may reach about 50
.
Follow-up will update the forecast based on the latest development of the epidemic
.
(October 28, 2021) The forecast of the 2021 new coronary pneumonia epidemic situation in Gansu for tour groups.
Since the local confirmed cases of new coronary pneumonia and local asymptomatic infections were reported in Gansu Province on October 19, 2021, as of 24:00 on October 27, Gansu The province has reported a total of 63 confirmed cases, Lanzhou has reported a total of 45 confirmed cases, Zhangye City has reported a total of 11 confirmed cases, and Jiayuguan City has reported a total of 5 confirmed cases (local, data source: National Health Commission)
.
Figure 1 Forecast results of the epidemic situation in Gansu Province According to the latest epidemic data, the updated forecast results of Lanzhou University's "Global Prediction System for New Coronary Pneumonia Epidemics" show that under the timely and effective secondary control measures taken by the current government [1] (blue solid Line), the current round of the epidemic in Gansu Province is expected to be brought under control around November 4.
The cumulative number of confirmed cases is expected to be about 94 (67-120, between the two blue dotted lines); the current round of the epidemic in Lanzhou is expected to be 11 It will be controlled around 3rd, and the cumulative number of confirmed cases is expected to be about 59 (43-75, between the two blue dotted lines); the current round of the epidemic in Zhangye City is expected to be controlled around November 1, and the cumulative number of confirmed cases is expected About 19 people (13-24, between the two blue dotted lines); the current round of the epidemic in Jiayuguan City is expected to be controlled around November 1.
The cumulative number of confirmed cases is expected to be about 8 people (5-12, two blue dotted lines) Between the dotted lines)
.
Figure 2 Epidemic prediction results of Lanzhou City Figure 3 Epidemic prediction results of Zhangye City Figure 4 If three-level control measures are adopted for the prediction results of Jiayuguan City's epidemic situation [2] (red dotted line), or there are still undiscovered infection chains, this round of epidemics in Gansu Province is expected It will be controlled around November 7, and the cumulative number of confirmed cases may reach about 161; the current round of the epidemic in Lanzhou is expected to be controlled around November 7, and the cumulative number of confirmed cases may reach about 100; this round in Zhangye City The epidemic is expected to be controlled around November 3, and the cumulative number of confirmed cases may reach about 34; the current round of the epidemic in Jiayuguan City is expected to be controlled around November 5, and the cumulative number of confirmed cases may reach about 16
.
Follow-up will update the forecast based on the latest development of the epidemic
.
(October 28, 2021) The forecast of the 2021 new crown pneumonia epidemic in Ningxia for tour groups Since Ningxia Autonomous Region reported the local confirmed cases of new crown pneumonia and local asymptomatic infections on October 18, 2021, as of 24:00 on October 27, Ningxia The autonomous region has reported a total of 24 confirmed cases, Yinchuan City has reported a total of 13 confirmed cases, and Wuzhong City has reported a total of 10 confirmed cases (local, data source: National Health Commission)
.
Figure 1 Forecast results of epidemic situation in Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region According to the latest epidemic data, the updated forecast results of Lanzhou University's "Global Prediction System for New Coronary Pneumonia Epidemics" show that under the timely and effective secondary control measures taken by the current government [1] (blue Solid line), the current round of the epidemic in Ningxia Autonomous Region is expected to be brought under control around November 5, and the cumulative number of confirmed cases is expected to be about 37 (26-48, between the two blue dotted lines); the current round of the epidemic in Yinchuan City is expected to be It will be controlled around November 4th, and the cumulative number of confirmed cases is expected to be about 18 (13-23, between the two blue dotted lines); the current round of the epidemic in Wuzhong City is expected to be controlled around November 3rd, and the cumulative number of confirmed cases Estimated to be about 15 people (8-23, between the two blue dotted lines)
.
Figure 2 Outbreak prediction results in Wuzhong City Figure 3 Outbreak prediction results in Yinchuan City, if three-level control measures [2] (red dotted line) are adopted, or there are still undiscovered infection chains, the current round of Ningxia epidemic is expected to be controlled around November 11 , The cumulative number of confirmed cases may reach about 72; the current round of the epidemic in Wuzhong City is expected to be controlled around November 8, and the cumulative number of confirmed cases may reach about 34; the current round of epidemic in Yinchuan City is expected to be around November 8 Under control, the cumulative number of confirmed cases may reach about 30
.
Follow-up will update the forecast based on the latest development of the epidemic
.
(October 28, 2021) 2021 new crown pneumonia epidemic forecast for tour groups in Hebei Since Hebei Province reported local confirmed cases of new crown pneumonia and local asymptomatic infections on October 20, 2021, as of 24:00 on October 27, Hebei A total of 3 confirmed cases have been reported in the province (local, data source: National Health Commission)
.
According to the latest epidemic data, the updated forecast results of Lanzhou University's "Global Forecast System for New Coronary Pneumonia Epidemics" show that under the timely and effective secondary control measures taken by the current government [1] (solid blue line), Hebei Province is in this round The epidemic is expected to be brought under control around November 2, and the cumulative number of confirmed cases is expected to be about 10 (6-13, between the two blue dotted lines)
.
If three-level control measures are taken [2] (red dotted line), or there are still undiscovered chains of infection, the current round of the epidemic in Hebei is expected to be controlled around November 9, and the cumulative number of confirmed cases may reach about 26
.
Follow-up will update the forecast based on the latest development of the epidemic
.
(October 28, 2021) The world's first global epidemic prediction system has previously accurately predicted epidemics in many places.
Since the global outbreak of new crown pneumonia, it was organized and led by Professor Huang Jianping, Director of the Collaborative Innovation Center for Western Ecological Security, Lanzhou University The central team successfully developed the "New Coronary Pneumonia Epidemic Prediction System" with all the intellectual property rights of Lanzhou University
.
How powerful is this system? In August, it accurately predicted the epidemic situation in Henan and Yangzhou
.
In September, the epidemic situation in Putian and Xiamen was accurately predicted again
.
According to reports, the epidemic forecast system of Lanzhou University "prediction is mainly divided into daily forecasts and sudden epidemic forecasts
.
Daily work includes forecasts for the future one day, one month and two quarters for more than 190 countries around the world, every 10 days Update monthly and seasonal forecast data
.
"Screenshot of the "New Coronary Pneumonia Epidemic Global Prediction System" website "The system is a prediction system that combines the statistical-dynamic method of climate prediction with epidemiological models, and is a fusion of interdisciplinary knowledge The innovative result of this
.
Traditional epidemiological models are only suitable for regional simulation and forecasting, while the global forecasting system we have established covers a wider space and does global forecasting
.
” Professor Huang Jianping said
.
The flow chart of the "Global Prediction System for New Coronary Pneumonia Epidemics" The "Global Prediction System for New Coronary Pneumonia Epidemics" (GPCP) is based on real-time updated epidemic data to reliably predict the daily and seasonal new incidences of new coronary pneumonia in each country
.
Previously, foreign universities and related institutions had launched an epidemic prediction system, but they only focused on the prediction of the domestic epidemic in the United States.
Similarly, there are other domestic schools that have predicted the domestic epidemic, but they did not continue
.
"What we are doing is a global prediction system, and it is currently the only system in the world that insists on making predictions
.
" On June 8, the National Science Review published an online publication of Professor Huang Jianping’s team titled "New Crown The latest results of "The oscillation-outbreaks characteristic of the COVID-19 pandemic" reveals that the sudden rise in oscillation is the main feature of the global spread of the new crown pneumonia epidemic
.
Among them, the fluctuations are mainly affected by seasonal changes and the lag in case reporting, while short-term mutations are mainly caused by the gathering of people
.
This achievement provides an important theoretical basis for the scientific modeling and parameterization of the global new crown epidemic
.
On January 31 this year, Zhong Nanshan, an academician of the Chinese Academy of Engineering, also praised: "The prediction of the'Global New Crown Epidemic Prediction System' developed by the Lanzhou University Western Ecological Safety Joint Construction Center is quite reliable
.
" And WeChat group
