Li Tianquan: research and development trend of high growth pharmaceutical enterprises in China through data perspective

According to the latest news of yaozhi.com, since the opening of the third industrial development conference of China biomedical park in 2019 yesterday, various special forums have been carried out successively Among them, Li Tianquan, founder and vice president of yaozhi.com, gave a passionate speech on the theme of "data perspective of the R & D trend of China's high growth pharmaceutical enterprises" at the development strategy and listing financing Summit Forum of China's biomedical high growth enterprises today, and brought the theme of "real world diagnosis and treatment number" to you at the second academic annual meeting of China Union real world professional association in 2019 According to the wonderful report of the perspective doctor's prescription behavior Li Zong, with the latest achievements of data visualization in the R & D center of yaozhi.com, debuted the secrets behind the industry operation logic and enterprise competition Li Tianquan, founder and vice president of yaozhi.com, asked the data to tell you the logic behind the rise of pharmaceutical companies, market value comparison Pharmaceutical intelligence data combed the market value changes of listed pharmaceutical enterprises in Shanghai and Shenzhen from 1993 to 2019 (the first half of the year) The market value of a group of old state-owned enterprises, such as Huabei pharmaceutical and Shandong Xinhua Pharmaceutical, declined gradually After the market value of Harbin Pharmaceutical Group, famous for advertising, peaked, it also declined, eventually falling out of the top 10 A group of research and development enterprises represented by Jiangsu Hengrui have risen rapidly and are stable in the top of the market value list In the market value chart of listed pharmaceutical enterprises in 2019, due to a greater brand premium, the market value of some brand Chinese medicine enterprises contains high components According to the overall trend analysis of the number of new drug registration applications, this part of the pharmaceutical companies will face a downward trend in the future market value Perhaps we will see their transformation layout (please continue to focus on the WeChat official account (ID:yaozh008), and follow up the relevant articles In the first half of 1993-2019 years, the market value of Shanghai and Shenzhen listed companies TOP10 (Note: dynamic map can enter the official account yaozh_club) R & D input contrast market value is the embodiment of high growth Studying the logic behind these high growth companies, we find that R & D is the core competitiveness of the enterprises representing the future value of the enterprise Pharmaceutical intelligence data combed the R & D investment of listed pharmaceutical companies in Shanghai and Shenzhen from 2009 to 2019 (the first half of the year), and we found the logic behind it The proportion of R & D investment basically indicates the trend of market value in the future For example, Jiangsu Hengrui's R & D investment is unique, which makes it quickly reach the top in market value, and it will be listed on the top 50 (pharmexec) list of global pharmaceutical enterprises in 2019 this year; the companies with little R & D investment will fall in the market value ranking in the future This R & D investment trend chart, perhaps the market value trend chart in the future, has market foresight and research value In the first half of 2009-2019 years, the investment and development of Shanghai and Shenzhen listed companies TOP10 (Note: the official account can be entered by the yaozh_club) The analysis of sales expenditure is complicated The data of listed companies' sales expenditure are analyzed We find that R & D is an important factor in determining the growth of enterprises, but it is not a single factor Generally speaking, the proportion of R & D investment of traditional enterprises is relatively low, and the proportion of sales expenditure is relatively high; however, the sales expenditure of R & D enterprises is still high, such as Fosun, Hengrui, Kelun, etc Analysis of China's market, sales costs are indispensable at present The short-term capital return is realized for the sales expenses, and the R & D expenses ensure the sustainable development of the funds R & D is an important part of the development of enterprises Enterprises without new products have no future, but they pay attention to R & D while ignoring other parts, and face imbalance risks in the domestic complex market How to balance marketing and R & D is a subject that every enterprise should study deeply according to individual situation Top 20 data perspective of sales expenditure in 2019 pharmaceutical industry semi annual report change trend of domestic drug R & D traditional Chinese medicine represents the difficulty of new drug R & D of traditional Chinese medicine in the past, and it is unimaginable that the R & D of traditional Chinese medicine generic drugs is more difficult According to the statistics of pharmaceutical intelligence data, the compound preparation is the largest one among the six categories of new drugs, and its proportion is increasing year by year compared with that of generic drugs in the same year The proportion of generic drugs has been shrinking year by year, reaching zero by 2018 The proportion of compound preparations in the number of applications for registration of traditional Chinese medicine is gradually increasing, but according to the independent analysis of the registration data of compound preparations, the trend of the number of applications for registration has been declining year by year So far this year, the number of applications is only 6, most of which are only for clinical application, not for production As the absolute main force, the compound preparations of traditional Chinese medicine are still seriously lack of motivation On the contrary, the whole new traditional Chinese medicine is new We can imagine the number of drug applications Chemical medicine represents the twists and turns in China's new drug research and development road Since 2005, with the change of policy, the industry has suffered a lot For example, in the July 22 massacre in 2015, a large number of drug research and development were withdrawn; chemical drug registration reform and classification, new drug threshold continued to increase, etc As can be seen from the figure below, the data of chemical drugs at the major policy reform nodes did not fluctuate abnormally, but rose in a beautiful curve, with sesame blossoming steadily higher In 2018, there were 112 clinical applications for innovative chemical drugs and 15 listed varieties, the number of which is gratifying According to the current trend, we can speculate that the subsequent chemical innovation continued to rise Through the statistical chart of pharmaceutical intelligence data in the future, it can be intuitively found that the biopharmaceutical representatives are not affected by the verification of clinical trials in 2015, but grasp the rhythm and rise steadily After the reform of bio drug registration, maybe there will be a blowout development of bio drugs, with a promising future Looking at the international perspective, according to the number of new drugs approved by FDA over the years (see the drug intelligence data for details), we know that chemical drugs are the backbone of the number of new drugs, but the proportion of biological drugs is gradually increasing, which shows that biological drugs may be the focus of future research and development Policy changes the environment, and data perspective shows that the policy orientation of the pharmaceutical industry is very obvious in the future The introduction of a policy may mean the decline of a number of enterprises To be invincible in the market is the aspiration of enterprises It is the "hard principle" to make a good layout plan before the policy is issued There are laws to study domestic policies over the years With the progress of science and technology and the market order, policies emerge new, and the policy orientation tends to be closer The trend is ahead of the policy, which seems to be more important than the policy trend National progress, international integration, a series of policies to introduce domestic pharmaceutical enterprises to the world Good innovative drugs are bound to be internationalized In contrast to generic drugs, from 2008 to 2018, the number of Anda declared by Chinese pharmaceutical companies in the United States rose by leaps and bounds, which is also the embodiment of the internationalization of generic drugs No matter making innovative drugs or generic drugs, it is wise to analyze historical data to get the development trend, see clearly the future trend, and gradually determine the product from the strategy, and follow the trend Statement: this opinion only represents the author, not the position of yaozhi.com, welcome to exchange and supplement in the message area; 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