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    Home > Active Ingredient News > Feed Industry News > Live pig futures exceeded 28,000 yuan/ton, a record high

    Live pig futures exceeded 28,000 yuan/ton, a record high

    • Last Update: 2021-03-24
    • Source: Internet
    • Author: User
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    On the second trading day after the Spring Festival, my country's live pig futures market ushered in a strong rise, of which the 2109 contract broke through the 28,000 yuan/ton mark, an increase of over 5%, setting a record high.


    On the same day, A-share pork concept stocks strengthened collectively.


    The spot market price in the pig period is "ice and fire"ZBR China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry

    A few days ago, the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs reported that since 2021, Guangdong and Xinjiang have successively reported outbreaks of African swine fever.


    In an interview with a reporter from the Futures Daily, Zhao Guangyu, an agricultural product analyst at Nanhua Futures, said that in detail, since December last year, my country’s reproductive sows and piglets have suffered from various impacts such as African swine fever and "wild poison", and there has been a regional decline in the inventory.


    "At the same time, affected by the epidemic, the proportion of small-weight pigs and sows in slaughter increased in the past year.


    Zhao Guangyu said that piglet prices continue to be strong.


    According to Liu Yingjie, research director of agricultural products at Xinhu Futures, the post-holiday rise of live pig futures also shows that the market is concerned about the pressure of illegal virus vaccines that my country's non-pest prevention and control system is facing, which has caused the recovery process of live pigs to fall short of expectations.


    Looking ahead, Guo Dandan, a senior analyst at Zhuo Chuang Information, said that the average price of live pigs for slaughter is expected to continue to run at a high level in 2021.


      Relative to the strong futures market, the trend of the live pig spot market after the Spring Festival holiday is relatively weak.


      Liu Yingjie said that at present, the live pig spot and futures markets are clearly showing a situation of "two heavens of ice and fire".


      Can the listed pigs continue to make better profits?ZBR China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry

      Since the outbreak of African swine fever in 2018, the price of live pigs in my country has been soaring, and most domestic pig breeding companies have seen their performance in the past two years.


      Specifically, in the ranking of the live pig production of listed companies in January 2021, Muyuan is expected to produce about 2 million pigs, and Wen's pig production is 1.


      Some market participants believe that due to the recent impact of the African swine fever epidemic, the overall stock of live pigs has declined, and the farms are optimistic about the market outlook.


      "Judging from the momentum of this year's leading pig breeding companies to continue to increase the scale of pig breeding, although the average profit per head will inevitably fall, the total profit is still expected to be relatively good.


      In Wang Yajing’s view, although from the perspective of the pig cycle, our country’s live pigs are in the stage of recovery and the current round of pig cycle has entered the second half.


      Zhao Guangyu also stated that the price discovery function of my country's live pig futures provides the market with forward reference prices.


      “But the profitability of pig companies is difficult to exceed last year’s average.
    ” Zhao Guangyu further stated, “This year’s live pig production recovery and release is a high probability event.
    As the weather turns warmer, the pig disease epidemic will likely improve around the beginning of spring, which will affect the long-term pig production capacity.
    The pace and speed of recovery, but it is difficult to cause adverse effects.
    Therefore, this year’s recovery of live pig production capacity and lowering of the price center compared to last year are still a high probability event.
    The price of superimposed feed has increased compared with last year, the cost of substitute breeding, and the cost of epidemic prevention have increased.
    It’s difficult for this year’s pig farming profit, especially the farming profit of purchased piglets, to exceed last year’s average.
    "ZBR China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry

       On the second trading day after the Spring Festival, my country's live pig futures market ushered in a strong rise, of which the 2109 contract broke through the 28,000 yuan/ton mark, an increase of over 5%, setting a record high.
    Regarding the strong trend of my country's live pig futures after the holiday, market participants have stated that it is mainly due to the sporadic rebound of the non-pest epidemic and the short-term production capacity being less than expected.
    ZBR China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry

      On the same day, A-share pork concept stocks strengthened collectively.
    As of yesterday’s close, Tangrenshen, Tiankang Biotechnology, Tianbang shares, Zhengbang Technology, Aonong Biotechnology, New Hope and other stocks rose by the daily limit.
    Dabeinong, Wen's shares, Jinxinnong and other stocks followed up; in the Hong Kong stocks pork sector, Yurun Food , COFCO Jiakang, Putian Foods also rose more than 10%.
    ZBR China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry

      The spot market price in the pig period is "ice and fire"ZBR China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry

    The spot market price in the pig period is "ice and fire"

      A few days ago, the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs reported that since 2021, Guangdong and Xinjiang have successively reported outbreaks of African swine fever.
    Affected by this, the stock loss of reproductive sows and piglets in the north has expanded again.
    ZBR China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry

      In an interview with a reporter from the Futures Daily, Zhao Guangyu, an agricultural product analyst at Nanhua Futures, said that in detail, since December last year, my country’s reproductive sows and piglets have suffered from various impacts such as African swine fever and "wild poison", and there has been a regional decline in the inventory.
    .
    From December last year to January this year, the number of reproductive sows at the sample sites dropped by nearly 11% month-on-month.
    As the suspected African swine fever and other diseases continue to appear in Henan and Shandong after February, it is expected that there will be reproductive sows in February this year.
    The month-on-month trend is in a downward trend, and the loss of breeding sows for three consecutive months will be converted to the pig breeding cycle, which will lead to a reduction in the number of commercial pigs from September to November.
    ZBR China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry

      "At the same time, affected by the epidemic, the proportion of small-weight pigs and sows in slaughter increased in the past year.
    Considering the impact on the later stage of the re-raising of pigs, the price of piglets has also begun to rise ahead of schedule.
    " said Wang Yajing, senior agricultural product analyst at Guodu Futures.
    ZBR China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry

      Zhao Guangyu said that piglet prices continue to be strong.
    The national average price of 15KG piglets at the sample site this week has exceeded 1,800 yuan/head.
    It is expected that piglet prices will remain strong in March, which will further support the cost of live pig prices in September.
    ZBR China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry

      According to Liu Yingjie, research director of agricultural products at Xinhu Futures, the post-holiday rise of live pig futures also shows that the market is concerned about the pressure of illegal virus vaccines that my country's non-pest prevention and control system is facing, which has caused the recovery process of live pigs to fall short of expectations.
    ZBR China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry

      Looking ahead, Guo Dandan, a senior analyst at Zhuo Chuang Information, said that the average price of live pigs for slaughter is expected to continue to run at a high level in 2021.
    Due to the decrease in slaughter volume from May to August, the price of pigs may rise.
    ZBR China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry

      Relative to the strong futures market, the trend of the live pig spot market after the Spring Festival holiday is relatively weak.
    According to the latest monitoring data from the National Bureau of Statistics, the price of live pigs (external three yuan) dropped by 9% from the beginning of February to the end of January this year.
    ZBR China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry

      Liu Yingjie said that at present, the live pig spot and futures markets are clearly showing a situation of "two heavens of ice and fire".
    Pig futures continued to rise after the holiday, and the trading volume improved significantly yesterday.
    At the same time, due to the low consumption season after the Spring Festival, the overall slaughter volume remained low, as well as the frequent occurrence of non-plague epidemics in some areas of my country, and the farmers panicked for slaughter (a large number of small-weight pigs were sold for slaughter).
    ) With multiple negative suppressions such as the impact on the market, the price of pigs in my country's spot market continued to fall sharply.
    ZBR China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry

      Can the listed pigs continue to make better profits?ZBR China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry

    Can the listed pigs continue to make better profits?

      Since the outbreak of African swine fever in 2018, the price of live pigs in my country has been soaring, and most domestic pig breeding companies have seen their performance in the past two years.
    Judging from this year, under the expectation of a downward price of pigs throughout the year, the momentum of increased production capacity expansion of my country's listed pig companies is still unabated.
    ZBR China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry

      Specifically, in the ranking of the live pig production of listed companies in January 2021, Muyuan is expected to produce about 2 million pigs, and Wen's pig production is 1.
    004 million, a month-on-month increase of 12.
    9% and a year-on-year increase of 15.
    5%; Zhengbang Technology Live Pigs The number of slaughtered pigs was 777,000, a decrease of 41.
    4% from the previous month and an increase of 162.
    5% year-on-year; the number of pigs slaughtered by New Hope was 732,000, a decrease of 55.
    9% from the previous month and an increase of 129.
    1% year-on-year.
    It is understood that in January this year, with the exception of Wen's shares, Tianbang shares and Tangrenshen, other listed companies have a certain month-on-month decline in their slaughter volume, but all have increased significantly year-on-year.
    ZBR China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry

      Some market participants believe that due to the recent impact of the African swine fever epidemic, the overall stock of live pigs has declined, and the farms are optimistic about the market outlook.
    This year, group companies with leading cost management can continue to achieve profitability.
    ZBR China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry

      "Judging from the momentum of this year's leading pig breeding companies to continue to increase the scale of pig breeding, although the average profit per head will inevitably fall, the total profit is still expected to be relatively good.
    " Liu Yingjie said.
    ZBR China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry

      In Wang Yajing’s view, although from the perspective of the pig cycle, our country’s live pigs are in the stage of recovery and the current round of pig cycle has entered the second half.
    However, due to the uncertainty of the non-pneumonia epidemic, the price decline has not been smooth.
    After the live pigs are released for slaughter ahead of schedule, there may be a short-term shortage of live pig supply, and corporate profits are expected to rebound again.
    Of course, we still need to pay attention to the spread of non-pest disease, piglet prices and changes in the sow stock structure in the later stage.
    ZBR China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry

      Zhao Guangyu also stated that the price discovery function of my country's live pig futures provides the market with forward reference prices.
    The rise in futures prices also indicates that pig companies will have better future pig farming profits, especially the strong ability to prevent and control pig disease epidemics.
    Companies that participate in hedging to lock in aquaculture profits at a high level are expected to have better future profitability.
    ZBR China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry

      “But the profitability of pig companies is difficult to exceed last year’s average.
    ” Zhao Guangyu further stated, “This year’s live pig production recovery and release is a high probability event.
    As the weather turns warmer, the pig disease epidemic will likely improve around the beginning of spring, which will affect the long-term pig production capacity.
    The pace and speed of recovery, but it is difficult to cause adverse effects.
    Therefore, this year’s recovery of live pig production capacity and lowering of the price center compared to last year are still a high probability event.
    The price of superimposed feed has increased compared with last year, the cost of substitute breeding, and the cost of epidemic prevention have increased.
    It’s difficult for this year’s pig farming profit, especially the farming profit of purchased piglets, to exceed last year’s average.
    "ZBR China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry

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