Low-carbon economic development report: Pollution-intensive industries peaked in 5 years

China Coatings Network
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China's main peak can be achieved in stages: in the next 5-10 years, the main energy, pollution-intensive industries reached a peak, to achieve changes in industrial structure, structural energy efficiency contribution rate increased; China's Low Carbon Economic Development Report (2015), released by the International Institute for Low Carbon Economy on the 11th, said that in the short term, carbon and energy taxes at different tax rates will lead to higher production costs, which in turn will lead to a decline in GDP, but the loss of these two tax policies on GDP will not exceed 0.8%, which is an affordable level. The Institute is co-founded by the University of Foreign Economics and Trade and Nagoya University in Japan. In the report, Liu Yu, an associate researcher at the Institute of Science and Technology Policy and Management Sciences of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, and other experts recently used CGE models to simulate the effects of carbon and environmental taxes on economic growth. The simulation results of the new standard GB13223-2011 on China's macro-economy and emissions issued by the Ministry of Environmental Protection show that the new standard has a greater impact on the macro-economy, resulting in a 1.25% decline in GDP growth and a 3.99% decline in thermal power industry output. However, the new standard can reduce the output of high energy-consuming industries, which is conducive to energy conservation and emission reduction. Yu Lele, an associate researcher at the Institute of Science and Technology Policy and Management Sciences of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, and Xue Jin, a professor at Nagoya University, simulated the functions of energy and carbon taxes using the CGE model. The result is that, in the long run, both the energy tax and the carbon tax can reduce energy consumption and corresponding CO2 emissions in the sector, providing potential energy for China's economic development. Dai Yande, deputy editor-in-chief of the report and deputy director of the Energy Research Institute of the National Development and Reform Commission, and other experts have analyzed various scenarios on China's energy development road map, saying that China is in the best period of energy transformation, both in terms of the overall environment of international energy development and the domestic economic and energy development situation. Experts such as Mr Dai believe China is likely to peak coal around 2020, peak carbon emissions between 2025 and 2030 and peak energy around 2035. The study found that adjusting energy structure and energy intensity is the most effective policy tool to achieve the peak target, and that early peak times can have a greater impact on GDP and employment. Wang Yi, director of the Science and Technology Policy Institute of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, and other experts used scenario analysis methods to simulate several possible types of future policies. In their view, China's main peaks can be achieved in stages: in the next 5-10 years, the main energy and pollution-intensive industries will peak, the industrial structure will change, the contribution of structural energy conservation will increase, in the next 10-20 years, the main resource consumption and pollutant emissions peak, and the peak carbon emissions will be reached in the next 10-20 years. "China's peak carbon emissions depend on the combined costs, and for our country, the unique energy endowments and industrial economic structure have to pay a greater price to peak early, and therefore face difficult choices," the experts said. The report also predicts that China will establish a national unified carbon market from 2016, which will become the world's largest carbon rights trading market. The above-mentioned experts suggest that the government should take full account of the spatial characteristics in formulating emission reduction policies, and should focus on narrowing the regional development gap and optimizing the industrial layout, so as to minimize the cost of emission reduction and balance regional carbon emissions. Carbon dioxide has been classified as an "atmospheric pollutant" by some countries, the report said. But in China, apart from policies that enforce and impose legal and illegal fees and fines, it is not yet possible to impose a carbon tax like an environmental pollution tax, but to indirectly impose a resource use tax to control carbon emissions, without legally defining the properties of carbon dioxide. The experts suggested that to develop and implement a carbon or environmental tax, a legal basis must first be provided to define carbon dioxide as a pollutant.