[Medicine heaven and earth] the procurement volume of gefitinib alliance has declined again; how about the profit of the winning enterprise under the "Three Kingdoms" competition

On September 6, at the request of the relevant regions of the alliance, Shanghai joint procurement office changed the oral regular release dosage form of gefitinib 250mg, the agreed purchase quantity of Hainan in the first year from 2.8436 million tablets to 38800 tablets, and the calculation base of the agreed purchase quantity in the first year of the Alliance region was adjusted to 5.3927 million tablets On September 8, another 250mg of gefitinib oral regular release dosage form was added The calculation base of agreed purchase volume in the first year of Jiangxi was revised from 1029200 tablets to 159000 tablets The calculation base of agreed purchase volume in the first year of the alliance region was adjusted to 4522500 tablets The specific reasons were not explained officially, but some changes were also caused in combination with the document of centralized drug purchase in the alliance region We also take this opportunity to talk about the changes after the expansion of gefitinib's centralized production and how it may change in the future Before the 4 + 7 full-scale expansion, the purchase amount of 250mg of gefitinib oral regular release dosage form was 49.15w, while after the expansion, the original purchase amount of gefitinib alliance region was 819.75w in the first year However, after this adjustment, the original basis changed to 452.25w, with a change rate of nearly 45%, and the growth rate changed from 1873% to 820% However, even so, the total purchase amount increased eight times compared with last year In addition, on May 20 this year, China biopharmaceutical announced that the anti-tumor drug "gefitinib tablet" developed by its subsidiary, Zhengda Tianqing Pharmaceutical Group Co., Ltd., has also obtained the drug registration approval issued by the State Food and Drug Administration of China In this way, the domestic market of "gefitinic tablets" has also officially entered the situation of "three countries competing for hegemony" The addition of Zhengda Tianqing has also officially made "giffitinis" the brightest star on all the league's procurement lists Because it is not only the competition of domestic and foreign production enterprises, but also the competition of new and old production enterprises At the same time, it also happens to be three enterprises (at most three win the bid in alliance procurement) The only pity is that the procurement gap between the two "gefitinis" has been reduced, which has reduced the original growth rate of 1873% Next, if we analyze "gefitinib" in terms of price, we can find a strange phenomenon, that is, for the purpose of 4 + 7 volume purchase, no matter domestic and foreign enterprises, they are working hard to reduce the price; l the original price of AstraZeneca is 5000, and the price of AstraZeneca was reduced from 5000 yuan to 2358 yuan through national negotiation on the eve of the market of gefitinib of Qilu pharmaceutical AstraZeneca is determined to reduce the price to 547 yuan / box L Qilu pharmaceutical won the bid price of 498 yuan from March 2019 to June 2019: l Zhengda Tianqing priced 460 yuan (Provisional) But as a result, the prices of the three gefitinis manufacturing enterprises have become extremely similar The winning enterprises are likely to win the bid at the same time The purchase volume has soared to 70% of last year's purchase volume The purchase unit price may be the same as last year's bid price It is estimated that the total sales volume of "gefitinis" is close to 173 million yuan On the other hand, it is also because of the decrease of procurement volume in Hainan and Jiangxi province that the top three procurement volume of "jifeitini" will change in the next year, Henan, Shandong and Anhui will top the list, and Hainan and Shanxi will decline The revised ranking of procurement volume of each province (10000 pieces) can be seen from the above table If three enterprises win the bid, the first ranking estimated procurement volume is close to 142W pieces, accounting for 54%, which is equal to the sum of the remaining two In addition, if the pricing of existing production enterprises remains unchanged, the ranking will be Zhengda Tianqing, Qilu and AstraZeneca in turn However, if the prices of the three bid winning enterprises are the same, according to the provisions of the centralized procurement document for drugs in the alliance region, the enterprises selected in the "4 + 7 urban centralized procurement of drugs" last year will take priority, and the ranking will become AstraZeneca, Zhengda Tianqing and Qilu Based on the price of gefitinib, the above purchase price is unified as the benchmark, and the purchase unit price is 54.7 yuan / piece The operating amount of gefitinib's first ranking enterprise can reach 8807w, and the specific net profit depends on the profit proportion of each enterprise All in all, no matter what the reason, the decline of the purchasing volume of gefitinib has a direct impact on the enterprise's prediction of gefitinib market, or even the prediction of 4 + 7 expansion action, coupled with the increasingly fierce pharmaceutical market, especially the target companies in the last procurement, such as Qilu and Zhengda Tianqing on gefitinib, whether they need to strive for the first place In order to get the qualification of preferred provinces and cities, we need to consider clearly However, compared with the total purchase volume last year, the market improvement is huge, which proves that the implementation of the purchase work is also effective If the purchase can break through again, the enterprise can win the market from it, and it is believed that the expansion of follow-up drugs and follow-up markets will not be far away Statement: this opinion only represents the author, not the position of yaozhi.com, welcome to exchange and supplement in the message area; 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