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The impact of the centralized procurement of IVD in Anhui is not to suppress domestic IVD; Anhui is expected to double next year.
It has contacted the medical insurance bureau and spent some time to understand that the protection of domestic production enterprises is also very good, including Nanjing, and the medical insurance bureaus of various regions.
Communication and the communication of the National Bureau have confirmed that this time is not a suppression of domestic IVD; Anhui expects to double next year, so it will expand its dealer system.
It is still an important strategic partner and needs to control channel inventory; after centralized procurement, Many dealers from foreign companies come to Mindray
.
The hedging of the Anhui distribution system: When the profit comes down, you can give more products and more regions
.
New infrastructure brings 15 billion opportunities.
Part of the certainty that local government special debt is used for new infrastructure is quite high.
Opportunities brought by new infrastructure: 15 billion opportunities, 40% of the historical win rate, 50% this year, and 50%.
Next year; now first- and second-tier cities are developing new hospitals and new hospitals; new infrastructure will continue for a period of time, and the chairman's statement is that it will take 10-15 years to reach European and American standards; partial certainty that local government special debts will be used for new infrastructure Quite high; several countries in Western Europe (France, Germany, Italy, and West) have also proposed new infrastructure plans similar to China; therefore, the European business achieved double-digit growth on the basis of the high base last year; developing countries outside of Europe The pace of related new infrastructure is not consistent, the pace is slower, and the certainty of funding is low.
It depends on aid projects (World Bank funding, etc.
).
All are looking for higher value (without lowering the standard of diagnosis and treatment); in this environment, Mindray’s relative competitiveness is strengthened (customers will not buy blindly with their eyes closed); due to the rapid growth of domestic new infrastructure, three All production lines have benefited; internationally, similar to Q2, affected by the high base of the epidemic last year, the growth rate is low; excluding the impact of the depreciation of the dollar and the new crown, the growth rate of conventional business is very good; I have confidence in the growth rate of international business in Q4 and beyond
.
Future acquisition direction Future mergers and acquisitions will focus on missing production lines, such as the future acquisition direction of molecular diagnostics: sea peptide is a strategic raw material (luminous antigen antibody), and has been making various preparations, and there are internal teams; sea peptide products and technologies , The team has been familiar with the company during the 15-year cooperation period; with sea peptide, Mindray is confident that it will be among the world's first-class in 3 years.
Without sea peptide, there would be no such time point; other raw materials would not have great strategic value.
Manufacturing is not what the company should do, but it has been involved in the design
.
Now the company is cultivating backup suppliers in China.
Now based on the number, 70% of the core materials have completed the localization of the supply chain; from the upstream business point of view, mergers and acquisitions are not required; therefore, future mergers and acquisitions will focus on missing production lines.
For example, molecular diagnostics; the company will still rely on self-research and wait until a suitable target is available; overseas operation platforms can be strengthened, and mergers and acquisitions can also be considered-overseas IVD will be a very imaginative business for Mindray in the future; new sub-business We also need to consider whether to buy overseas or domestic.
In the past, we would buy domestic ones to reduce the risk, but now the enhancement of organizational capabilities does not rule out overseas targets; Illuminating the progress of achieving world-class IVD automation business in 3 years: the ultimate we can see now The form is the degree of automation of LabCorp and Quest, but the domestic ICL does not currently have this kind of automation market, and there is no such demand in the hospital; with the launch of CL-8000i and BS-2800M, the company's degree of automation is also improving, so prepare Naturally; IVD and ultrasound are world-class catching up: the main products are more than 20 products, the leading ones are monitoring and anesthesia (performance, market share, European and American penetration), the first-class are blood cells, respiration, defibrillation, and other products.
Somewhat worse (ultrasound, IVD); for example, ultrasound, portable M9, TE7 are first-class, but other Taiwan super R9 are poor; ultrasound, luminescence, the timetable is 3 years, world-class (node is super high-end); We hope that in the future, one product will become world-class every year, and all products will gradually become world-class; MPI can be used as a basic guarantee; 2-3% of the deduction of "loss" in the report is from 100 million government subsidies.
; As long as the relevant items pass the acceptance, they must be entered into the account; therefore, there is no adjustment; Q4 estimates that the deduction of non-net profit and net profit are almost the same; the effective tax rate for this quarter is 12%, and the effective tax rate for last year was 8%, because the effective tax rate for Q2-3 last year was abnormal; Mindray has more than 40 entities overseas, and many of the reports show losses.
Manufacturing and R&D expenses are placed in the country, and overseas marketing is released, so there is no tax deduction; overseas entities began to make money last year, so the tax deduction rate last year; 12 -13% is the normal effective tax rate; Shenmai—15%, Shenmai Soft—10%, so the average of these two is 12-13%; the focus of the future is developing countries.
The focus of the future is developing countries.
; The expense rate in developed countries is relatively high, and there will not be a lot of new investment in developed countries in the future (such as the number of new heads
.
At the end of this year and early next year, the blood coagulation new technology platform will become Mindray’s future blood cell business; the new blood coagulation technology platform will be released at the end of this year and early next year.
Relying on the company’s position in the laboratory, collaborative sales can be achieved; Biochemical 2800M came out, hoping to get rid of the big but not strong stereotype (Mindray Biochemical has the largest market share); blood cells rely on BC-7500CRP this year to defeat Sysmex; there is also a morphological analyzer (on this year) The AI version is a non-Ai version; the AI version requires Class III, which will be certified next year, with an accuracy rate of over 95%; CellaVision has an accuracy rate of 30%)
.
The monitor is holding a big move.
The next generation of products will redefine the monitor, focusing on the nearest to the patient, the medical care, and achieve the same viscosity as a mobile phone (still still being conceived); the ventilator is non-invasive when discharged from the hospital this year.
; Infusion pumps increased rapidly last year; a focus in the future may be fusion innovation, in line with the general trend of department integration (such as multidisciplinary consultation), so as a technical partner of the hospital, the company should also provide interdisciplinary solutions (such as The current combination of anesthesia and perfusion pump), including the management needs of hospital administrators-the corresponding IT solution
.
"New third-tier" investment and expectations The market capacity represented by the "new third-tier" (orthopedics, animals, minimally invasive surgery) is very large, not inferior to existing businesses; current investment and expectations: last year, the minimum is 150 million, and the maximum is 3 100 million, doubling this year, and the next 5 years will be a high-speed growth period; the company's principle of resource allocation is based on growth goals; for example, chemiluminescence started to invest in a high proportion in 2018, when chemiluminescence accounted for 10% of IVD revenue, but it was allocated 50% IVD R&D resources; there is no difference in investment between the new three lines; from the perspective of synergy, minimally invasive synergy is better, and orthopedic synergy is relatively poor (I am not sure whether to do it for a long time, and the result was later centralized procurement); Molecular diagnosis: PCR first Molecular diagnosis: PCR first, the market is big, the company is not afraid of late; 7 billion in 2024 is the goal of chemiluminescence, what counts as a leader: Europe's top 200, the United States' top 20 penetration; the technological level must lead, and none of them are indispensable; The blood cell technology is good, but the installed capacity in Europe and the United States cannot reach it; 7 billion in 2024 is the goal of chemiluminescence; 900 installed overseas luminous installations in the first three quarters: 900 Q1-3 installed, mainly in the Asia-Pacific, 200-300 in the Middle East Taiwan; Q4 will be able to see when overseas markets will recover when overseas markets will recover: Q4 will be reflected overseas, and will be higher in developing countries next year; minimally invasive surgery is also the future trend █ why not do consumables for minimally invasive surgery: the main focus Based on its own competitive advantage; Mindray's understanding of minimally invasive surgery is: its core is a hard mirror
.
The market is large, and the domestic substitution space is large.
Minimally invasive surgery is also a trend in the future; the company has been precipitating for many years, and now it has 4K fluorescence, which has a great competitive advantage in China; Minimally invasive surgery revenue and R&D investment level: 1-9 Monthly ~ 200 million, more than 100 million in the same period last year; 200 million in the whole year of last year; if invested, research and development ~ 20%
.
█ Lifting the ban on the two controlling shareholders without reducing their holdings; there is no need for funds; █ Surgical robots: The clinical controversy is well understood by the company-20 million units, what problems can it solve? Not only Da Vinci, but also orthopedic, percutaneous, etc.
, can be observed
.
█ What is the future market space for monitors: 70% will be achieved in the future; █ Hard lenses: After the era of major infrastructure construction, we will enter the era of major diagnostics and major surgery; in the future, we will promote hard lens products as a training center; The core technology is confident to be world-class, and we hire German experts; in the future (within 3 years), we will increase investment in microscopic energy platforms, such as electrosurgical knife and ultrasonic knife, and also make some high-value consumables
.
It has contacted the medical insurance bureau and spent some time to understand that the protection of domestic production enterprises is also very good, including Nanjing, and the medical insurance bureaus of various regions.
Communication and the communication of the National Bureau have confirmed that this time is not a suppression of domestic IVD; Anhui expects to double next year, so it will expand its dealer system.
It is still an important strategic partner and needs to control channel inventory; after centralized procurement, Many dealers from foreign companies come to Mindray
.
The hedging of the Anhui distribution system: When the profit comes down, you can give more products and more regions
.
New infrastructure brings 15 billion opportunities.
Part of the certainty that local government special debt is used for new infrastructure is quite high.
Opportunities brought by new infrastructure: 15 billion opportunities, 40% of the historical win rate, 50% this year, and 50%.
Next year; now first- and second-tier cities are developing new hospitals and new hospitals; new infrastructure will continue for a period of time, and the chairman's statement is that it will take 10-15 years to reach European and American standards; partial certainty that local government special debts will be used for new infrastructure Quite high; several countries in Western Europe (France, Germany, Italy, and West) have also proposed new infrastructure plans similar to China; therefore, the European business achieved double-digit growth on the basis of the high base last year; developing countries outside of Europe The pace of related new infrastructure is not consistent, the pace is slower, and the certainty of funding is low.
It depends on aid projects (World Bank funding, etc.
).
All are looking for higher value (without lowering the standard of diagnosis and treatment); in this environment, Mindray’s relative competitiveness is strengthened (customers will not buy blindly with their eyes closed); due to the rapid growth of domestic new infrastructure, three All production lines have benefited; internationally, similar to Q2, affected by the high base of the epidemic last year, the growth rate is low; excluding the impact of the depreciation of the dollar and the new crown, the growth rate of conventional business is very good; I have confidence in the growth rate of international business in Q4 and beyond
.
Future acquisition direction Future mergers and acquisitions will focus on missing production lines, such as the future acquisition direction of molecular diagnostics: sea peptide is a strategic raw material (luminous antigen antibody), and has been making various preparations, and there are internal teams; sea peptide products and technologies , The team has been familiar with the company during the 15-year cooperation period; with sea peptide, Mindray is confident that it will be among the world's first-class in 3 years.
Without sea peptide, there would be no such time point; other raw materials would not have great strategic value.
Manufacturing is not what the company should do, but it has been involved in the design
.
Now the company is cultivating backup suppliers in China.
Now based on the number, 70% of the core materials have completed the localization of the supply chain; from the upstream business point of view, mergers and acquisitions are not required; therefore, future mergers and acquisitions will focus on missing production lines.
For example, molecular diagnostics; the company will still rely on self-research and wait until a suitable target is available; overseas operation platforms can be strengthened, and mergers and acquisitions can also be considered-overseas IVD will be a very imaginative business for Mindray in the future; new sub-business We also need to consider whether to buy overseas or domestic.
In the past, we would buy domestic ones to reduce the risk, but now the enhancement of organizational capabilities does not rule out overseas targets; Illuminating the progress of achieving world-class IVD automation business in 3 years: the ultimate we can see now The form is the degree of automation of LabCorp and Quest, but the domestic ICL does not currently have this kind of automation market, and there is no such demand in the hospital; with the launch of CL-8000i and BS-2800M, the company's degree of automation is also improving, so prepare Naturally; IVD and ultrasound are world-class catching up: the main products are more than 20 products, the leading ones are monitoring and anesthesia (performance, market share, European and American penetration), the first-class are blood cells, respiration, defibrillation, and other products.
Somewhat worse (ultrasound, IVD); for example, ultrasound, portable M9, TE7 are first-class, but other Taiwan super R9 are poor; ultrasound, luminescence, the timetable is 3 years, world-class (node is super high-end); We hope that in the future, one product will become world-class every year, and all products will gradually become world-class; MPI can be used as a basic guarantee; 2-3% of the deduction of "loss" in the report is from 100 million government subsidies.
; As long as the relevant items pass the acceptance, they must be entered into the account; therefore, there is no adjustment; Q4 estimates that the deduction of non-net profit and net profit are almost the same; the effective tax rate for this quarter is 12%, and the effective tax rate for last year was 8%, because the effective tax rate for Q2-3 last year was abnormal; Mindray has more than 40 entities overseas, and many of the reports show losses.
Manufacturing and R&D expenses are placed in the country, and overseas marketing is released, so there is no tax deduction; overseas entities began to make money last year, so the tax deduction rate last year; 12 -13% is the normal effective tax rate; Shenmai—15%, Shenmai Soft—10%, so the average of these two is 12-13%; the focus of the future is developing countries.
The focus of the future is developing countries.
; The expense rate in developed countries is relatively high, and there will not be a lot of new investment in developed countries in the future (such as the number of new heads
.
At the end of this year and early next year, the blood coagulation new technology platform will become Mindray’s future blood cell business; the new blood coagulation technology platform will be released at the end of this year and early next year.
Relying on the company’s position in the laboratory, collaborative sales can be achieved; Biochemical 2800M came out, hoping to get rid of the big but not strong stereotype (Mindray Biochemical has the largest market share); blood cells rely on BC-7500CRP this year to defeat Sysmex; there is also a morphological analyzer (on this year) The AI version is a non-Ai version; the AI version requires Class III, which will be certified next year, with an accuracy rate of over 95%; CellaVision has an accuracy rate of 30%)
.
The monitor is holding a big move.
The next generation of products will redefine the monitor, focusing on the nearest to the patient, the medical care, and achieve the same viscosity as a mobile phone (still still being conceived); the ventilator is non-invasive when discharged from the hospital this year.
; Infusion pumps increased rapidly last year; a focus in the future may be fusion innovation, in line with the general trend of department integration (such as multidisciplinary consultation), so as a technical partner of the hospital, the company should also provide interdisciplinary solutions (such as The current combination of anesthesia and perfusion pump), including the management needs of hospital administrators-the corresponding IT solution
.
"New third-tier" investment and expectations The market capacity represented by the "new third-tier" (orthopedics, animals, minimally invasive surgery) is very large, not inferior to existing businesses; current investment and expectations: last year, the minimum is 150 million, and the maximum is 3 100 million, doubling this year, and the next 5 years will be a high-speed growth period; the company's principle of resource allocation is based on growth goals; for example, chemiluminescence started to invest in a high proportion in 2018, when chemiluminescence accounted for 10% of IVD revenue, but it was allocated 50% IVD R&D resources; there is no difference in investment between the new three lines; from the perspective of synergy, minimally invasive synergy is better, and orthopedic synergy is relatively poor (I am not sure whether to do it for a long time, and the result was later centralized procurement); Molecular diagnosis: PCR first Molecular diagnosis: PCR first, the market is big, the company is not afraid of late; 7 billion in 2024 is the goal of chemiluminescence, what counts as a leader: Europe's top 200, the United States' top 20 penetration; the technological level must lead, and none of them are indispensable; The blood cell technology is good, but the installed capacity in Europe and the United States cannot reach it; 7 billion in 2024 is the goal of chemiluminescence; 900 installed overseas luminous installations in the first three quarters: 900 Q1-3 installed, mainly in the Asia-Pacific, 200-300 in the Middle East Taiwan; Q4 will be able to see when overseas markets will recover when overseas markets will recover: Q4 will be reflected overseas, and will be higher in developing countries next year; minimally invasive surgery is also the future trend █ why not do consumables for minimally invasive surgery: the main focus Based on its own competitive advantage; Mindray's understanding of minimally invasive surgery is: its core is a hard mirror
.
The market is large, and the domestic substitution space is large.
Minimally invasive surgery is also a trend in the future; the company has been precipitating for many years, and now it has 4K fluorescence, which has a great competitive advantage in China; Minimally invasive surgery revenue and R&D investment level: 1-9 Monthly ~ 200 million, more than 100 million in the same period last year; 200 million in the whole year of last year; if invested, research and development ~ 20%
.
█ Lifting the ban on the two controlling shareholders without reducing their holdings; there is no need for funds; █ Surgical robots: The clinical controversy is well understood by the company-20 million units, what problems can it solve? Not only Da Vinci, but also orthopedic, percutaneous, etc.
, can be observed
.
█ What is the future market space for monitors: 70% will be achieved in the future; █ Hard lenses: After the era of major infrastructure construction, we will enter the era of major diagnostics and major surgery; in the future, we will promote hard lens products as a training center; The core technology is confident to be world-class, and we hire German experts; in the future (within 3 years), we will increase investment in microscopic energy platforms, such as electrosurgical knife and ultrasonic knife, and also make some high-value consumables
.
