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Article source: Medical Rubik's Cube Info
Author: Shi Bei
Recently, Nature Reviews Drug Discovery published an article on mRNA drug market analysis, introducing the global mRNA drug distribution companies and R&D progress, and forecasting the mRNA market in 2035
With the launch and widespread use of the COVID-19 mRNA vaccine, the mRNA technology platform will make a major breakthrough in 2020
The mRNA drugs currently under development can be divided into three main categories according to their uses and drug types: preventive vaccines, therapeutic vaccines and therapeutic drugs
mRNA drugs: number of projects, development stage, and treatment direction
mRNA drugs: number of projects, development stage, and treatment directionAmong the 31 companies included in the analysis, 77% have at least one mRNA preventive vaccine, 77% have at least one mRNA therapeutic vaccine, and 35% have at least one mRNA therapeutic drug Of companies reached 55%
Of the 76 preventive vaccines, 22% are used to prevent COVID-19 infection and 77% are used to prevent other infectious diseases; 21% of the 32 therapeutic vaccines are related to cancer; of the 72 mRNA therapeutic drugs, oncology drugs Accounted for 13%, rare disease drugs accounted for 20%, and respiratory disease drugs accounted for 17%
From the perspective of product development progress, there are already mRNA preventive vaccines approved for marketing or emergency use authorization (EUA) from Pfizer/BioNtech and Moderna respectively
Market Trend Forecast of mRNA Products
Market Trend Forecast of mRNA ProductsHigher development success rate (POS) is the advantage of mRNA vaccines over other vaccines
Taking into account the target population penetration rate, pricing and competition for the main indications, it is estimated that the average global peak sales of preventive mRNA vaccine drugs (products other than the COVID-19 vaccine) are about 800 million US dollars
Therapeutic vaccines may be a niche space among mRNA drugs, but based on the size of the patient population and the possible dominance of treatment models targeting multiple tumor-associated antigens, such drugs may have huge commercial potential
If the target population size, competition between different treatment models, pricing, market penetration, and increased risks are taken into account, the average peak sales of personalized cancer vaccine products are about 5 billion US dollars, and the peak sales of single disease products are about 1.
Therapeutic drugs may be the biggest opportunity among mRNA drugs, involving many indications, but whether mRNA drugs have clinical advantages over other therapies is still unclear, and there are also high clinical risks
It is expected that therapeutic drugs will account for 10%-30% of mRNA products
Outlook
OutlookThe market size of mRNA products depends on the sales of COVID-19 vaccines in the short term, and is expected to exceed US$50 billion in 2021
With the introduction of other preventive vaccines and therapeutic vaccine products, the mRNA drug market is expected to start to grow in 2028 and will reach US$23 billion in 2035