Nature's latest forecast - Top 10 drugs in sales in 2020

The author combs the content of the article "top product forecasts for 2020" published by Nature Reviews Drug Discovery for reference Table 1 The top 10 drug, Humira Humira (adamumumab), ranks first in the drug sales list Anti TNF monoclonal antibody Humira has become the most successful drug in the industry, with the title of "drug king", and the sales volume is predicted to reach a new high in 2020 This advantage is largely due not only to its efficacy in the treatment of rheumatoid arthritis and other immune diseases, but also to abbvie's efforts to defend the product's patent, which accounts for nearly two-thirds of its sales This means that although five biological analogues of Humira? Have been approved by the US FDA, they have not yet been activated In the United States, its biological analogues are expected to be sold in 2023, although the star status of Humira is also gradually weakening Different from the booming foreign market, the performance of TNF - α inhibitors led by adamumumab is unsatisfactory in the domestic market The leading leader, Sansheng Guojian, accounts for half of the total TNF - α inhibitors The sales volume is 1 billion yuan, and adamumumab only contributes 200 million yuan, which is not consistent with the Title of the global drug king Keytruda expects strong growth in a variety of antitumor drugs over the next five years By 2024, keytruda (pembrolizumab) is likely to be the biggest selling drug The checkpoint inhibitor beat rival PD-1 inhibitor opdivo (nivolumab) in almost all areas According to the approved indications, as of November 2019, drug K has been approved for 15 tumor species and 21 indications, and drug o has become the most widely used PD-1 inhibitor in clinic Since taking the third line of SCLC in August 2018, drug o has been basically numerous particles, and has failed in many indications: the second line of SCLC, the first line of liver cancer The rapid growth in keytruda sales is largely due to the high frequency of its use as a monotherapy and chemotherapy in the first-line treatment of non-small cell lung cancer Keytruda as a first-line standard therapy for NSCLC and advanced melanoma, coupled with the expansion of new indications, has an impressive sales growth rate In the near future, due to patent expiration, some drugs in the above table may decline in ranking Revlimid will have its own generic in 2022 However, Bristol Myers Squibb is slightly relieved that the drug is expected to generate $36.7 billion in revenue between now and 2022 In January 2019, Bristol Myers Squibb purchased celgene for $74 billion, and took lenalidomide, the heavyweight product of multiple myeloma In the domestic market, Baiji Shenzhou is responsible for the sales of lenalidomide Due to the relatively high price, the market is not full With the generic drugs of Shuanglu pharmaceutical, Zhengda Tianqing and Qilu pharmaceutical coming into the market, the price of lenalidomide also began to fall off a cliff, from the initial 20000 or so to the current 34000 Not surprisingly, two cornerstone drugs for multiple myeloma: lenalidomide and bortezomib, have been purchased in volume From 2023, eylea (Aflibercept) and Stella (ustekinumab) will also face a decline in sales Eylea's biological analogues are expected to start selling in 2024, so sales of Novartis' new product, beouv (broucizumab), for the treatment of wet age-related macular degeneration, will decline Beouv? Is easy to administer, with a 12 week dosing plan; Novartis has also made a bold decision to conduct head-to-head trials in an attempt to capture market share from eyla In the market of stellara psoriasis, Johnson & Johnson and Novartis have made great efforts IL-12 / 23 ustekinumab, with its leading advantages, is now far ahead in the psoriasis market, with sales of US $5.1 billion in 2018 Relying on head-to-head research, Novartis' IL-17 secukinumab defeated ustekinumab, making great strides in the market and catching up Johnson & Johnson is not waiting to die It is doing its best to protect stelara and expand the indications of psoriasis to Crohn's disease and ulcerative colitis Table 2 The data of secukinumab vs ustekinumab is from the drug crossover database imbruvica Because Btk small molecule inhibitors have very good specificity, they show very good advantages in the treatment of B-cell malignant tumors and some B-cell immune diseases Therefore, Btk inhibitors have become the most promising drugs in the hematoma market Since the approval of ibruvica (ibrutinib), a Btk inhibitor, in 2013, it is widely believed that it has changed the treatment of leukemia In just four years after its IPO, imbruvica's annual sales have been climbing one after another, and it has become one of the first-line super heavyweight bombs, reaching US $6.205 billion in 2018 However, with concerns about cardiovascular and hypertension problems, drug resistance due to gene mutations and competition for other Btk inhibitors, sales growth of imbruvica may slow down In 2019, the most exciting news for medical people is that the second generation Btk inhibitor of Baiji Shenzhou crosses the Pacific Ocean In addition to being significantly better than ibuprofen in the treatment of mantle cell lymphoma, it also carries the label of "made in China", which makes Chinese people proud Table 3 The list data of 1 kind of drugs targeting Btk in China are from eliquis and xarlto Bristol Myers Squibb / Pfizer's anticoagulant eliquis (apixaban) and Bayer / Johnson's xarlto (rivaroxaban) The market is surging like keytruda and opdivo If eliquis can surpass xarlto in sales this year and keep growing, it will become the second largest drug in the industry by 2024, next to keytruda In the domestic market, due to the lack of channel advantages and the late listing, apixaban has not achieved outstanding performance However, with such a huge variety, many domestic players have been ready to move Hausen pharmaceutical, Zhengda Tianqing pharmaceutical, dongyangguang pharmaceutical and Kelun Pharmaceutical It involves imitation According to the development of clopidogrel, with the expiration of apixaban patent in 2022, it is estimated that the domestic belt purchase is doomed, and the above manufacturers start a new round of price fight Biktarvy finally said biktarvy of Gilead The drug, approved for HIV treatment, was a huge success in its first year on the market, with a record of $1.184 billion The competition for HIV market is mainly between biktarvy and dovato, a two-component drug of GlaxoSmithKline / Viiv, but at present, it seems that dovato does not pose a threat to biktarvy at all With its current compound annual growth rate of more than double sales, biktarvy is expected to become a repeat of the best-selling list in 2021 Note: This paper comes from nature reviews drug discovery, top product forecasts for 2020, and the author has some supplements on this basis.