Nearly a month crude oil rally such as Hong late high finishing correction

iw9
First, WTI rise reasons analysisiw9WTI since the end of June, launched a good round of uptrendThe author in the 6.28 China University futures analyst team in July market seminar from the economic level, seasonal level, geopolitics and emergencies and other aspects of the analysis of U.Scrude oil (107.29, 0.06, 0.06%) will enter the rising periodAfter a month of market basically verified the author's point of viewOverall, the current rally in U.Scrude oil is a combination of positive stimulusiw9
1Economic level: The U.Seconomy is recovering modestly, economic data boosts crude oiliw9(1) ISM manufacturing PMI data show that the U.Seconomy is still in an expansionary period: The U.S ISM manufacturing PMI returned to 50.9 above the line in June, with an expected 50.5, up from 49.0 Historical data show that U.S manufacturing was in the expansion zone for five of the six months in the first half of the year iw9
　　(2) Strong job market data: U.S nonfarm payrolls rose 195,000 in June, with the market expected to grow by 165,000 The U.S unemployment rate was 7.6 percent in June and the market is expected to be 7.5 percent The data for the previous two months were revised upward significantly Non-farm payrolls in April were revised up from 149,000 to 199,000 Non-farm payrolls in May were revised up from a range of 175,000 to 195,000 iw9
　　2 Policy level: The Federal Reserve remains loose to encourage U.S crude exports iw9 (1) Despite Bernanke's June speech proposing a road map for QE exit But in a recent speech, Bernanke told markets that Fed officials had not abandoned their commitment to loose monetary policy, even though the Fed could slow its $85 billion-a-month bond purchases The reasons are high unemployment, low inflation and "quite limited" fiscal policy Bernanke does not expect the Fed to raise interest rates for some time after the unemployment rate falls to 6.5 percent Bernanke's speech weighed on the dollar to some extent, causing a rise in the price of crude oil, which is priced at $100 million iw9
　　(2) U.S crude oil exports may be realized: The U.S Congress has restricted oil exports since the 1973-1974 Arab oil embargo caused a shortage of oil But last year's record 766,000 barrels a day increase in domestic oil production also partly shifted the perception that the U.S needs foreign oil, which will prompt Congress to relax its ban on exports iw9
　　3, the seasonal level: into the demand season, the emergency resonance iw9 (1) into the peak demand for summer oil: summer because of hot weather, driving out of the crowd increased, electricity consumption is also increased, is the traditional demand season for crude oil Coupled with this year's local high temperature weather in the United States, resulting in electricity consumption, oil increased to a certain extent also played a supporting role At the same time, the Middle East in the summer due to high temperatures, the demand for crude oil to generate electricity increased, the Middle East to make up for their own demand for crude oil exports will also decline nearly a month of crude oil rally such as Hong late high finishing correction nearly a month crude oil rally such as Hong late high finishing correction (2) 1 / 2 1 2 next the end of the iw9 , WTI rise reasons analysis iw9 WTI since the end of June, launched a good rally The author in the 6.28 China University futures analyst team in July market seminar from the economic level, seasonal level, geopolitics and emergencies and other aspects of the analysis of U.S crude oil (107.29, 0.06, 0.06%) will enter the rising period After a month of market basically verified the author's point of view Overall, the current rally in U.S crude oil is a combination of positive stimulus iw9
　　1 Economic level: The U.S economy is recovering modestly, economic data boosts crude oil iw9 (1) ISM manufacturing PMI data show that the U.S economy is still in an expansionary period: The U.S ISM manufacturing PMI returned to 50.9 above the line in June, with an expected 50.5, up from 49.0 Historical data show that U.S manufacturing was in the expansion zone for five of the six months in the first half of the year iw9
　　(2) Strong job market data: U.S nonfarm payrolls rose 195,000 in June, with the market expected to grow by 165,000 The U.S unemployment rate was 7.6 percent in June and the market is expected to be 7.5 percent The data for the previous two months were revised upward significantly Non-farm payrolls in April were revised up from 149,000 to 199,000 Non-farm payrolls in May were revised up from a range of 175,000 to 195,000 iw9
　　2 Policy level: The Federal Reserve remains loose to encourage U.S crude exports iw9 (1) Despite Bernanke's June speech proposing a road map for QE exit But in a recent speech, Bernanke told markets that Fed officials had not abandoned their commitment to loose monetary policy, even though the Fed could slow its $85 billion-a-month bond purchases The reasons are high unemployment, low inflation and "quite limited" fiscal policy Bernanke does not expect the Fed to raise interest rates for some time after the unemployment rate falls to 6.5 percent Bernanke's speech weighed on the dollar to some extent, causing a rise in the price of crude oil, which is priced at $100 million iw9
　　(2) U.S crude oil exports may be realized: The U.S Congress has restricted oil exports since the 1973-1974 Arab oil embargo caused a shortage of oil But last year's record 766,000 barrels a day increase in domestic oil production also partly shifted the perception that the U.S needs foreign oil, which will prompt Congress to relax its ban on exports iw9
　　3, the seasonal level: into the demand season, the emergency resonance iw9 (1) into the peak demand for summer oil: summer because of hot weather, driving out of the crowd increased, electricity consumption is also increased, is the traditional demand season for crude oil Coupled with this year's local high temperature weather in the United States, resulting in electricity consumption, oil increased to a certain extent also played a supporting role At the same time, the Middle East in the summer due to high temperatures, the demand for crude oil to generate electricity increased, the Middle East to make up for their own demand for crude oil exports will also decline