Oil market bears two years, China imports more than 600 million tons

On May 31, the National Energy Administration issued the National Petroleum Reserve Regulations (Draft for Solicitation of Comments), proposing to keep the scale of national petroleum reserves in line with total petroleum consumption
.
In the crude oil bear market in the past two years, China's crude oil imports have risen sharply
.
Unlike the past, the main force of imported crude oil in this cycle is no longer just two barrels of oil
.
With the deepening of the reform of the petroleum system, local refineries have also joined the army of "group buying" of crude oil
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However, after a year-and-a-half decline, international oil prices have seen a significant rebound in the first half of this year, and reached the $50 per barrel mark in the intraday session last Friday
.
Even so, China has not seen any signs of reducing imports: in February, March and April this year, China’s crude oil imports exceeded 30 million tons.
A large number of ships full of crude oil stopped at Qingdao Port waiting to be transported to various refineries from the Middle East.
Oil merchants from South America, Russia, and Russia have come to China to compete for the market.
As the world's largest oil importer, China has become the pinnacle of international oil prices
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It has been nearly two years since crude oil embarked on a long bear journey in the second half of 2014
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During this period of time, China, as one of the world's most important crude oil consumers, quietly accelerated the rate of crude oil imports
.
In 2014, China imported 310 million tons of crude oil and reached 335 million tons in 2015.
In the first four months of this year, this figure has reached 124 million tons
.
However, while importing 25 million tons of crude oil in 2015 compared with 2014, the total import value was only more than 830 billion yuan.
Compared with the 1.
4 trillion yuan in 2014, it was equivalent to saving 570 billion yuan, which was an astonishing decline.
40%
of Starting from July 2014, China has imported 616 million tons of crude oil in the past 22 months, which is more than the total crude oil consumption in 2015
.
It was also in 2015 when oil prices were at a trough that China surpassed the United States for the first time and became the world's largest crude oil importer
.
However, although Qingdao is still under oil tankers, international oil prices have already bid farewell to the lowest trough.

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Since February this year, international oil prices have been rising all the way, and by the end of May they were close to US$50 per barrel
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"This will not have much impact on China's later imports
.
" Zhuo Chuang Information analyst Liu Mengkai analyzed in an interview with the "Daily Economic News" reporter.
On the one hand, the import quotas of local oil refineries will increase, on the other hand.
The construction of China's strategic oil reserve has not yet been completed, and both will support the later oil imports
.
On May 31, the National Energy Administration issued the "National Petroleum Reserve Regulations (Draft for Comment)" (hereinafter referred to as the "Draft for Comments")
.
The "Draft Opinions" proposes that the scale of national oil reserves should be kept commensurate with the total amount of oil consumption
.
Liu Mengkai introduced that China’s current strategic oil reserves are roughly equivalent to 50 days’ worth of imports, and the future goal is to reach at least 90 days
.
Imports in 22 months ≈ 3 years of domestic production In April this year, China once again surpassed the United States, ranking the world's largest crude oil importer with 7.
96 million barrels of crude oil per day
.
In that month, China imported a total of 32.
58 million tons of crude oil, which is the third consecutive month that imports exceeded 30 million tons
.
In the past 22 months, China’s monthly crude oil imports exceeded 30 million tons on seven occasions, and the first occurred in December 2014
.
At that time, international oil prices had been declining for nearly half a year, and were nearly 50% lower than the prices at the end of June of that year
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Because of this, although the import volume in December 2014 was 7 million tons more than that in June, the total amount of crude oil imports was more than 5 billion yuan lower than in June
.
Although international oil prices fluctuated in 2015, the downward trend did not stop
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At the beginning of the year, the international oil price was still around US$50 per barrel.
By the end of December, both WTI and Brent crude oil prices had fallen to around US$37 per barrel
.
This year, China imported 334 million tons of crude oil, a year-on-year increase of 8.
8%
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It was also in this year that China’s dependence on foreign crude oil exceeded 60% for the first time.

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Many experts interviewed by the "Daily Economic News" reporters stated that although low oil prices and high import volumes will bring imported deflation risks, for a country like China, such a large crude oil consumer, the low price that has not been encountered in ten years is exactly Increase the timing of imports
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The fact is also true
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Since the international oil price fell in July 2014 to April this year, China's total crude oil imports reached 616 million tons in 22 months, surpassing the total oil consumption of last year and close to the sum of China's crude oil production in the past three years
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However, Zhu Fang, director of the Information Department of the Sinopec Federation, told the "Daily Business News" reporter that China's annual import volume in recent years has been around 300 million tons, and imports in the past two years have been relatively stable
.
"When the price drops, no one can
say whether it will continue to fall, so there is no talk of bottom-hunting .
" Zhu Fang said, "The cost of bottom-hunting must also be calculated.
So large amounts of funds, so large amounts of crude oil are stored there.
Even if it is bought at a low price, it may not be cost-effective
.
" Geo-refining and strategic reserves support later imports.
Entering 2016, international oil prices have been supported by expectations of frozen production.
They have climbed from less than US$30 in February to nearly US$50
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Nevertheless, China still has not slowed down its crude oil imports
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In the four months for which data have been released this year, except for the slightly lower crude oil imports in January, the other three months were all over 31 million tons, and both March and April exceeded 32.
5 million tons
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"At present, it seems that China will not reduce imports because of the rebound in oil prices
.
" Liu Mengkai believes that even if oil prices reach $50, they are still relatively low compared to two years ago
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A staff member of Shandong Refinery told the "Daily Economic News" reporter that despite the recent increase in oil prices, his company only obtained the right to import crude oil last year and will not slow down the pace of importing crude oil in the short term
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At present, companies that have been approved to import crude oil have received a total of 70 million tons of annual quotas.
Together with the part of the application, the import volume of local refineries is expected to exceed 100 million tons this year, which is close to one-third of the total import volume of the country.

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Another factor supporting oil imports is the strategic oil reserve
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At the end of 2014, the National Bureau of Statistics officially announced the national oil reserve information for the first time, showing that the first phase of the national oil reserve project was completed in 2009, including 4 national oil reserve bases in Zhoushan, Zhenhai, Dalian and Huangdao, with a total reserve storage capacity of 1,640 10,000 cubic meters, and 12.
43 million tons of crude oil reserves, which is approximately equivalent to 91 million barrels, which is about 9 days of consumption
.
In December last year, the website of the National Bureau of Statistics released information again
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As of mid-2015, China had built 8 national oil reserve bases with a total reserve capacity of 26.
8 million cubic meters
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Next, 4 new projects are planned
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The "Draft Opinions" issued on May 31 divided the national oil reserve into government reserve oil and corporate obligation reserve oil to deal with oil supply interruptions or shortages caused by emergencies
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The International Energy Agency (IEA) recommends that its member countries reserve oil equivalent to 90 days of imports.
According to the estimates of the international consulting agency EnergyAspects, if China’s goal is to store crude oil equivalent to 90 days of imports, China’s strategic oil reserves will require 5.
4 100 million to 600 million barrels of crude oil
.
"Our country's strategic oil reserves are not yet this number, and we need to continue to import in the future
.
" Liu Mengkai believes that this will be an important force supporting China's oil imports
.