On the minister's channel, these two words about the situation of pigs are worth the details

pork as a table "just need", has been the focus of attention, this year's two meetings of pork topic has been mentioned many timesg4Lg4L(Minister of Agriculture and Rural Affairs Han Changfu)g4Lon the 22nd of the first ministerial channel, Minister of Agriculture and Rural Affairs Han Changfu on the current situation of pig production and supply of "two words", worth fine -g4Lthe first sentence: the current pig production recovery momentum is good, to achieve this year's pig production target can be expectedg4LParsing one: Where is the recovery momentum of pig production?g4Lpig production to restore momentum, from the apparent level reflected in the decline in pork prices, from the invisible level reflected in the improvement of pig production capacityg4L
look at the price indicator firstSince mid-February this year, pig purchase prices and wholesale pork prices have fallen slightly for 13 consecutive weeks, according to the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairsg4Lg4L (data source: Agriculture and Rural Department of Livestock and Veterinary Bureau) g4L
compared with the 7th week of 2020 price peak, the current wholesale price of pork per kilogram is about 12 yuan, the recent decline in pig prices in the market has also been shown g4L look at the capacity indicators Because the market is better, the enthusiasm of the market body is also very high, pig investment in the increase, more new pig farms, make up the column to increase the rapid growth According to the month-by-month distribution of pig production by the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, since October last year, the stock of sows can breed the stock of live stocks to stop falling and rebound, has been back to growth for seven consecutive months; Can breed sow storage column and pig storage column, is the core index of pig production, so it can be seen that the momentum is good g4L Parspute II: What is the pig production target this year? g4L No specific data are set for this year's pig production targets, but the CPC Central Committee, the State Council and the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs have all shown sufficient attention to promoting the recovery of pig production. g4L Last year the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs formulated the "Three-Year Action Plan to Accelerate the Recovery of Pig Production" and set out the annual production recovery target: to curb the decline in pig stocks as soon as possible in 2019 to ensure that the decline and recovery by the end of the year; g4L Central No 1 document for 2020 also specifically mentions: to ensure that pig production capacity is basically back to near normal year levels by the end of 2020 g4L in accordance with this momentum to go ahead, to achieve this year's pig production recovery target, that is, to return to basically close to the perennial level is very promising. g4L Second sentence: the full recovery of pig production requires a process, all aspects of work will not be relaxed g4L Analysis: How far is it to fully recover from the full recovery of pig production ? g4L there are many factors that cause the rise in pig prices, in addition to the impact of African swine fever, there are some areas on environmental grounds to expand the exclusion zone improper policy, while bumping into a new round of pork rise cycle, said here must mention a concept - "pig cycle." g4L pork prices may seem wayward, but there has always been an endogenous cyclical pattern: the price of meat has risen - sow stocks have increased - the supply of pigs has increased - the price of meat has fallen - the price of meat has fallen , the supply of sows has been eliminated in large numbers - the supply of pigs has decreased - and the price of meat has risen again g4L g4L from up to down, then up, a complete pig cycle is about 4 to 5 years China's pork demand is relatively stable, pig prices appear cyclical fluctuations, mainly because Of China's pig farmers accounted for a relatively high, "chasing up and down" phenomenon is very common g4L
This wave of pig price rise just hit the rising cycle, become the "super pig cycle." g4L
so when will pork prices reach an inflection point? g4L New Hope Group Chairman Liu Yonghao believes: estimated that this year, pork prices are still quite high, the first half of next year may still be a little high, the second half of the gradual lysing to normal level is possible g4L although there is still a certain distance from the full recovery of pig production, but through compaction responsibility, policy support, to correct unreasonable restrictions on the breeding policy, grasp the large belt small, normal prevention and control of the African swine plague epidemic and other measures, I believe that pig production and supply situation will be significantly improved g4L Minister Han Changfu also gave a two-sentence fix - "after the market pork prices will not rise significantly." ""It will be sure that there is no shortage of meat in the bowls of the well-off old people "
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