Only a quarter of the Western Roman emperors died from the mathematical principles of natural causes

The Roman Empire was ruled by 175 people, from Augustus (63 BC-19 AD) to Constantine XI (1405-53), including the Eastern Roman Empire or the Byzantine Empire after the split in 395 AD , But does not include those who were minors during the regency or co-emperor and were unable to rule independently

Of the 69 rulers of the Western Roman Empire, only 24.

Researchers at the S?o Paulo School of Mathematics and Computer Science (ICMC-USP) in S?o Carlos (S?o Paulo State, Brazil) investigated the underlying mathematical patterns associated with the Roman emperor’s reign and showed that they followed statisticians The so-called "Power Law"

An article about this research was published in the Royal Society's peer-reviewed science journal "Royal Society Open Science"

"Although they seem to be random, the power-law distribution of probability is also found in many other phenomena related to complex systems, such as the size of lunar craters, the magnitude of earthquakes, the frequency of words in text, the market value of companies, and even social The number

The research was funded by FAPESP (Projects 19/23293-0 and 17/25971-0) and was carried out with the support of the Center for the Application of Industrial Mathematics and Sciences (CeMEAI), which is a research, innovation and communication center supported by FAPESP ( RIDC), sponsored by ICMC-USP

All the phenomena mentioned by Rodriguez show a pattern, often referred to as the Pareto principle or the 80/20 rule

The first to observe this ratio was the Italian economist Vilfredo Pareto (1848-1923)

In addition to the 80/20 rule, another pattern can be seen in the career of the Roman emperor

If the 80/20 rule is a well-known model, then the sharp drop in the survival curve around the 13th year is a new discovery

The 13-year change is an unanswered question, but in the long-term pursuit of quantitative history, statistical analysis can become an important supplementary resource for the study of historical phenomena

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About the S?o Paul Research Foundation (FAPESP)

The S?o Paulo Research Foundation (FAPESP) is a public institution whose mission is to support scholarships, scholarships and grants to researchers in all areas of knowledge by granting scholarships, scholarships and grants to researchers related to higher education and research institutions in the state of S?o Paulo in Brazil.

Magazine

Royal Society of Open Science

Methodological research

Data/statistical analysis

Article title

The Law of Power in "Roman Empire: Survival Analysis"

Article publication date

28-7-2021