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The world ethylene industry has gone through more than 90 years of history
.
In 2014, the world's ethylene production capacity was 153 million tons, with 271 sets of ethylene production equipment, with an average scale of 565,000 tons/year, an increase of 4.
3% year-on-year.
Worldwide, those with a production capacity of more than 1 million tons/year already built and under construction There are more than 40 crackers
.
The United States is the world's largest ethylene producer.
In 2014, the ethylene production capacity was 28.
426 million tons, accounting for 18.
5% of the world's total production capacity; China ranked second, accounting for 13.
4% of the world's total production capacity.
In the past few years, China's ethylene production capacity and demand The production capacity increased from 15.
365 million tons in 2011 to 21.
375 million tons in 2015, with an average annual growth rate of 6.
8%; production increased from 15.
536 million tons in 2011 to 17.
303 million tons in 2015, with an average annual growth rate of 2.
2 %; The equivalent demand increased from 31.
324 million tons in 2011 to 37.
330 million tons in 2015, with an average annual increase of 3.
6%.
1 Petroleum ethylene raw materials have greater optimization space at low oil prices.
The steam cracking ethylene technology has a wide application range of raw materials Ethane, light hydrocarbons, liquefied gas, naphtha, hydrogenation tail oil, diesel, etc.
The raw material cost accounts for up to 60% to 80% of the total cost.
Different raw materials are used, and the production cost of ethylene is also different.
A big difference
.
However, if the value of ethylene and cracking by-products is considered comprehensively, the competition gap between naphtha crackers and ethane crackers has narrowed under the current low crude oil price operation
.
The ethylene production cost of the naphtha cracker is about 4,500 yuan/ton, and the ethylene production cost of the ethane cracker in North America and the Middle East is about 1,500 yuan/ton and 1,000 yuan/ton, respectively.
The ethylene in the Middle East and North America uses ethane as the raw material.
Production costs still maintain an absolute competitive advantage
.
Under low oil prices, the development of alternative energy sources and the production of olefins by non-petroleum routes such as coal and methanol will be suppressed, while the production of olefins from naphtha will have greater room for optimization of raw materials cost reduction, diversification, and refining and chemical integration.
Enhanced chemical competitiveness
.
For enterprises integrating 10 million tons of oil refining and one million tons of ethylene, due to the reduction of diesel-gasoline ratio and the slowdown in the growth rate of refined oil consumption, the refining will shift from mass production of diesel and gasoline to the production of more high-grade gasoline, aviation kerosene and more.
Clean diesel and low-cost chemical raw materials
.
This trend of change is long-term.
During the country's "13th Five-Year Plan" period, the pace of structural adjustment will accelerate, and more low-cost and high-quality raw materials will enter the ethylene cracking unit
.
The advantages of the diversification of steam cracking by-products should be fully utilized, and the comprehensive utilization of carbon four, carbon five and aromatics should be done well
.
The downstream supporting products should fully reflect differentiation, high-end, and high value-added, so as to avoid aggravating the surplus of general-purpose products
.
2 Coal-to-olefins still have profitability under low oil prices.
Changes in coal-to-olefins costs have little to do with changes in oil prices, while naphtha-to-olefins costs are closely related to changes in oil prices.
At low oil prices of 35-55 USD/barrel, the cost of petroleum olefins It has obvious advantages and large profit margins, and coal-to-olefins can also achieve a break-even; at a price of 65-75 US dollars per barrel, the cost of coal-to-olefins is equivalent to the cost of naphtha-to-olefins, and has a good profitability level; At more than US$90/barrel, coal-to-olefins has good benefits, while naphtha-to-olefins faces high costs and low profits
.
With higher oil prices, the profitability of coal-to-olefins has increased
.
In particular, coal-to-olefins at a price of US$85/barrel can fully meet the requirement of an internal rate of return of more than 12% for newly-built plants, and has strong profitability
.
The cost of methanol feedstock accounts for more than 75% of the cost structure of methanol-to-olefins, and its cost changes are related to changes in imported methanol prices to a greater extent.
The increase in imported methanol prices leads to higher methanol-to-olefins costs, and there is room for profit.
Very small
.
Under the current low oil prices, the cost of methanol-to-olefins is significantly higher than the cost of naphtha-to-olefins, which is facing greater pressure
.
3 Coal-to-olefins investment intensity is high, and water resources and carbon emissions will affect its further development of coal chemical projects.
The one-time investment is very high, of which the investment in coal gasification equipment accounts for up to 50%.
Coal-based integrated equipment targets PE/PP Most of the products adopt MTO second-generation technology to increase the production of ethylene and propylene.
The general scale is coal-based 1.
8 million tons/year methanol to 680,000 tons/year polyolefins, with an investment of about 21 billion yuan
.
Due to the high one-time investment and financing difficulties of coal chemical projects, especially the relatively weak capital strength of private enterprises, high loan interest rates, and higher financing costs than state-owned enterprises, many private enterprises’ coal chemical projects have planned projects due to tight capital chains.
Cancellation or delay in project construction progress
.
Since methanol-to-olefins omit coal gasification and methanol production equipment, the one-time investment is much lower than that of coal-to-olefins.
The investment in an integrated unit of outsourcing methanol to produce 600,000 tons/year of olefins and polyolefins is about 9 billion yuan
.
When coal is used as a raw material to produce olefins, the domestic supply of raw coal can be met, and the price of raw materials is basically not affected by fluctuations in international oil prices
.
However, the production of olefins from coal is facing multiple pressures such as low oil prices, water resources and carbon emissions
.
From the perspective of the composition of coal and petroleum, the hydrogen/carbon atomic ratio of coal is 0.
2-1.
0, while the hydrogen/carbon atomic ratio of petroleum is 1.
6-2.
0.
Because coal has more carbon and less hydrogen in its composition, the process of producing petrochemical products from coal Inevitably with the adjustment of the hydrogen/carbon atomic ratio, its large-scale and low-cost source can only be the reaction with water, which inevitably emits a large amount of CO2, consumes a large amount of water resources and discharges a large amount of sewage.
With more hydrogen and less carbon, the CO2 emitted during its conversion (or direct utilization) process is greatly reduced
.
In addition, the carbon tax has a great impact on coal chemical projects.
The current cost calculation of the coal-to-olefin plant does not consider the carbon transaction tax
.
Calculate carbon dioxide emissions per unit of olefin according to the energy efficiency value required by the national demonstration project plan.
From this calculation, the carbon tax of coal to olefin is about 100 yuan/ton.
If the country levies a carbon tax, the competitiveness of coal chemical projects will be greatly weakened.
.
4 Realizing product performance and increasing added value is the key to enhancing the competitiveness of olefin products.
Using naphtha steam cracking technology, the yield of diene is about 50%, and the by-products include butadiene, benzene, toluene, xylene and carbon.
Five components, etc.
, product diversification, should give full play to the production advantages of copolymer brands, develop synthetic resin products such as tube materials, automotive materials, medical materials, and high-performance membrane materials that meet market needs, and change the homogeneity of general-purpose homopolymer products.
In a competitive situation, high performance and high added value of products will be realized, quality and efficiency will be improved, and market competitiveness will be enhanced
.
Using ethane steam cracking technology to produce ethylene, the ethylene yield is about 80%, the yield of propylene and other products is low, the product is relatively single, and the downstream supporting program is single, which makes it difficult to achieve product differentiation
.
Compared with naphtha steam cracking technology, the yield of diene from coal to olefins (including MTO) is about 75%, and the types and quantities of by-products are less
.
The main by-product of coal-to-olefins (including MTO) is butene, which accounts for about 93%, and the content of butane and butadiene is very small.
Therefore, the use of carbon four is similar to that of naphtha steam cracking technology.
The utilization of carbon four is completely different, mainly through OCU/OCP technology to generate ethylene and propylene
.
The C4 yield of naphtha to olefins is about 15%, mainly butadiene, and the butadiene product is separated through the butadiene extraction process
.
5 China’s polyolefin market will form a new pattern.
Changes in the cost of coal to olefins and oil price fluctuations are relatively small.
Even in the context of low oil prices, the production capacity of coal to olefins is also expanding.
As of March 2016, domestic coal to olefins ( Including MTO), the production capacity has reached 8.
39 million tons, accounting for 18.
7% of the domestic olefin production capacity.
The current production capacity is 8.
84 million tons/year (all completed around 2020), and some projects in the planning stage will soon enter construction It is expected that by the end of 2016, a production capacity of 9.
76 million tons/year will be formed.
The coal-to-olefin production capacity that will be completed and put into operation in 2020 will account for more than 20% of the total domestic olefin production capacity, and will reach 28% in 2025.
By then, the domestic olefin market will form petroleum olefins.
(Including propane dehydrogenation to propylene), coal to olefins, and imported olefins (equivalent), the "three-part world" market structure
.
At the same time, coal-to-olefin companies are also striving to expand the types and quantities of downstream polyolefin products.
For example, the polyolefin plant of Zhongtian Hechuang includes 120,000 tons/year of autoclave high-pressure polyethylene (which can produce high VA content EVA) and The market competitiveness of 250,000 tons/year tubular high-pressure polyethylene will gradually appear.
Therefore, whether from the perspective of production capacity growth or product structure, coal-to-olefins will have an increasing impact on petroleum olefin companies, and it is worthy of oil Enterprises attach great importance to it
.
6 It is recommended that under the current new situation of China's new economic normal, low international oil prices, and increasingly fierce competition in the global petrochemical market, China's ethylene production companies are facing both good opportunities and severe challenges.
The author suggests that the following aspects should be done well
.
1) The development of naphtha steam cracking to produce ethylene should strive to achieve the integration of refining and chemical, the light and diversified cracking raw materials, the park and base of production equipment, the differentiation and high-end of downstream products, etc.
, make full use of steam cracking The advantages of diversification of by-products, the comprehensive utilization of carbon four, carbon five and aromatics, in order to reduce production costs and enhance competitiveness
.
2) Under low oil prices, the coal-to-olefins industry needs to transform the rough development model of scale expansion in the past, adhere to the refined development strategy, innovate the construction operation model, refine the raw material processing path, improve the resource utilization rate, reduce the cost, and pay attention to environmental protection.
, Energy-saving, emission-reduction, water-saving and other links, in order to meet the more stringent environmental protection requirements in the future
.
3) The development of methanol-to-olefins mainly depends on stable and cheap sources of methanol.
It is possible to consider deploying natural gas-to-methanol projects in the Middle East as the raw material for domestic olefin production, or following the “Belt and Road” thinking, especially the deployment of natural gas-to-methanol to olefins in Central Asia The project is to reduce the cost of raw materials, and at the same time consider extending the methanol-to-olefin industry chain to the development of fine chemicals, and increase the added value of products
.
4) Imported ethane cracking to produce ethylene can be considered, but a stable, continuous, and reasonably priced supply of ethane raw materials should be implemented first to avoid the failure of the equipment due to raw material interruption, and at the same time to avoid the high operating cost of the equipment caused by the soaring price of raw materials
.
5) Continue to research and develop methane to ethylene and synthesis gas to ethylene technology
.
Strengthen the investment in research and development of methane to ethylene and synthesis gas to ethylene, strive for breakthroughs in catalysts and other core technologies, solve engineering technical problems, and realize industrial application as soon as possible
.
.
In 2014, the world's ethylene production capacity was 153 million tons, with 271 sets of ethylene production equipment, with an average scale of 565,000 tons/year, an increase of 4.
3% year-on-year.
Worldwide, those with a production capacity of more than 1 million tons/year already built and under construction There are more than 40 crackers
.
The United States is the world's largest ethylene producer.
In 2014, the ethylene production capacity was 28.
426 million tons, accounting for 18.
5% of the world's total production capacity; China ranked second, accounting for 13.
4% of the world's total production capacity.
In the past few years, China's ethylene production capacity and demand The production capacity increased from 15.
365 million tons in 2011 to 21.
375 million tons in 2015, with an average annual growth rate of 6.
8%; production increased from 15.
536 million tons in 2011 to 17.
303 million tons in 2015, with an average annual growth rate of 2.
2 %; The equivalent demand increased from 31.
324 million tons in 2011 to 37.
330 million tons in 2015, with an average annual increase of 3.
6%.
1 Petroleum ethylene raw materials have greater optimization space at low oil prices.
The steam cracking ethylene technology has a wide application range of raw materials Ethane, light hydrocarbons, liquefied gas, naphtha, hydrogenation tail oil, diesel, etc.
The raw material cost accounts for up to 60% to 80% of the total cost.
Different raw materials are used, and the production cost of ethylene is also different.
A big difference
.
However, if the value of ethylene and cracking by-products is considered comprehensively, the competition gap between naphtha crackers and ethane crackers has narrowed under the current low crude oil price operation
.
The ethylene production cost of the naphtha cracker is about 4,500 yuan/ton, and the ethylene production cost of the ethane cracker in North America and the Middle East is about 1,500 yuan/ton and 1,000 yuan/ton, respectively.
The ethylene in the Middle East and North America uses ethane as the raw material.
Production costs still maintain an absolute competitive advantage
.
Under low oil prices, the development of alternative energy sources and the production of olefins by non-petroleum routes such as coal and methanol will be suppressed, while the production of olefins from naphtha will have greater room for optimization of raw materials cost reduction, diversification, and refining and chemical integration.
Enhanced chemical competitiveness
.
For enterprises integrating 10 million tons of oil refining and one million tons of ethylene, due to the reduction of diesel-gasoline ratio and the slowdown in the growth rate of refined oil consumption, the refining will shift from mass production of diesel and gasoline to the production of more high-grade gasoline, aviation kerosene and more.
Clean diesel and low-cost chemical raw materials
.
This trend of change is long-term.
During the country's "13th Five-Year Plan" period, the pace of structural adjustment will accelerate, and more low-cost and high-quality raw materials will enter the ethylene cracking unit
.
The advantages of the diversification of steam cracking by-products should be fully utilized, and the comprehensive utilization of carbon four, carbon five and aromatics should be done well
.
The downstream supporting products should fully reflect differentiation, high-end, and high value-added, so as to avoid aggravating the surplus of general-purpose products
.
2 Coal-to-olefins still have profitability under low oil prices.
Changes in coal-to-olefins costs have little to do with changes in oil prices, while naphtha-to-olefins costs are closely related to changes in oil prices.
At low oil prices of 35-55 USD/barrel, the cost of petroleum olefins It has obvious advantages and large profit margins, and coal-to-olefins can also achieve a break-even; at a price of 65-75 US dollars per barrel, the cost of coal-to-olefins is equivalent to the cost of naphtha-to-olefins, and has a good profitability level; At more than US$90/barrel, coal-to-olefins has good benefits, while naphtha-to-olefins faces high costs and low profits
.
With higher oil prices, the profitability of coal-to-olefins has increased
.
In particular, coal-to-olefins at a price of US$85/barrel can fully meet the requirement of an internal rate of return of more than 12% for newly-built plants, and has strong profitability
.
The cost of methanol feedstock accounts for more than 75% of the cost structure of methanol-to-olefins, and its cost changes are related to changes in imported methanol prices to a greater extent.
The increase in imported methanol prices leads to higher methanol-to-olefins costs, and there is room for profit.
Very small
.
Under the current low oil prices, the cost of methanol-to-olefins is significantly higher than the cost of naphtha-to-olefins, which is facing greater pressure
.
3 Coal-to-olefins investment intensity is high, and water resources and carbon emissions will affect its further development of coal chemical projects.
The one-time investment is very high, of which the investment in coal gasification equipment accounts for up to 50%.
Coal-based integrated equipment targets PE/PP Most of the products adopt MTO second-generation technology to increase the production of ethylene and propylene.
The general scale is coal-based 1.
8 million tons/year methanol to 680,000 tons/year polyolefins, with an investment of about 21 billion yuan
.
Due to the high one-time investment and financing difficulties of coal chemical projects, especially the relatively weak capital strength of private enterprises, high loan interest rates, and higher financing costs than state-owned enterprises, many private enterprises’ coal chemical projects have planned projects due to tight capital chains.
Cancellation or delay in project construction progress
.
Since methanol-to-olefins omit coal gasification and methanol production equipment, the one-time investment is much lower than that of coal-to-olefins.
The investment in an integrated unit of outsourcing methanol to produce 600,000 tons/year of olefins and polyolefins is about 9 billion yuan
.
When coal is used as a raw material to produce olefins, the domestic supply of raw coal can be met, and the price of raw materials is basically not affected by fluctuations in international oil prices
.
However, the production of olefins from coal is facing multiple pressures such as low oil prices, water resources and carbon emissions
.
From the perspective of the composition of coal and petroleum, the hydrogen/carbon atomic ratio of coal is 0.
2-1.
0, while the hydrogen/carbon atomic ratio of petroleum is 1.
6-2.
0.
Because coal has more carbon and less hydrogen in its composition, the process of producing petrochemical products from coal Inevitably with the adjustment of the hydrogen/carbon atomic ratio, its large-scale and low-cost source can only be the reaction with water, which inevitably emits a large amount of CO2, consumes a large amount of water resources and discharges a large amount of sewage.
With more hydrogen and less carbon, the CO2 emitted during its conversion (or direct utilization) process is greatly reduced
.
In addition, the carbon tax has a great impact on coal chemical projects.
The current cost calculation of the coal-to-olefin plant does not consider the carbon transaction tax
.
Calculate carbon dioxide emissions per unit of olefin according to the energy efficiency value required by the national demonstration project plan.
From this calculation, the carbon tax of coal to olefin is about 100 yuan/ton.
If the country levies a carbon tax, the competitiveness of coal chemical projects will be greatly weakened.
.
4 Realizing product performance and increasing added value is the key to enhancing the competitiveness of olefin products.
Using naphtha steam cracking technology, the yield of diene is about 50%, and the by-products include butadiene, benzene, toluene, xylene and carbon.
Five components, etc.
, product diversification, should give full play to the production advantages of copolymer brands, develop synthetic resin products such as tube materials, automotive materials, medical materials, and high-performance membrane materials that meet market needs, and change the homogeneity of general-purpose homopolymer products.
In a competitive situation, high performance and high added value of products will be realized, quality and efficiency will be improved, and market competitiveness will be enhanced
.
Using ethane steam cracking technology to produce ethylene, the ethylene yield is about 80%, the yield of propylene and other products is low, the product is relatively single, and the downstream supporting program is single, which makes it difficult to achieve product differentiation
.
Compared with naphtha steam cracking technology, the yield of diene from coal to olefins (including MTO) is about 75%, and the types and quantities of by-products are less
.
The main by-product of coal-to-olefins (including MTO) is butene, which accounts for about 93%, and the content of butane and butadiene is very small.
Therefore, the use of carbon four is similar to that of naphtha steam cracking technology.
The utilization of carbon four is completely different, mainly through OCU/OCP technology to generate ethylene and propylene
.
The C4 yield of naphtha to olefins is about 15%, mainly butadiene, and the butadiene product is separated through the butadiene extraction process
.
5 China’s polyolefin market will form a new pattern.
Changes in the cost of coal to olefins and oil price fluctuations are relatively small.
Even in the context of low oil prices, the production capacity of coal to olefins is also expanding.
As of March 2016, domestic coal to olefins ( Including MTO), the production capacity has reached 8.
39 million tons, accounting for 18.
7% of the domestic olefin production capacity.
The current production capacity is 8.
84 million tons/year (all completed around 2020), and some projects in the planning stage will soon enter construction It is expected that by the end of 2016, a production capacity of 9.
76 million tons/year will be formed.
The coal-to-olefin production capacity that will be completed and put into operation in 2020 will account for more than 20% of the total domestic olefin production capacity, and will reach 28% in 2025.
By then, the domestic olefin market will form petroleum olefins.
(Including propane dehydrogenation to propylene), coal to olefins, and imported olefins (equivalent), the "three-part world" market structure
.
At the same time, coal-to-olefin companies are also striving to expand the types and quantities of downstream polyolefin products.
For example, the polyolefin plant of Zhongtian Hechuang includes 120,000 tons/year of autoclave high-pressure polyethylene (which can produce high VA content EVA) and The market competitiveness of 250,000 tons/year tubular high-pressure polyethylene will gradually appear.
Therefore, whether from the perspective of production capacity growth or product structure, coal-to-olefins will have an increasing impact on petroleum olefin companies, and it is worthy of oil Enterprises attach great importance to it
.
6 It is recommended that under the current new situation of China's new economic normal, low international oil prices, and increasingly fierce competition in the global petrochemical market, China's ethylene production companies are facing both good opportunities and severe challenges.
The author suggests that the following aspects should be done well
.
1) The development of naphtha steam cracking to produce ethylene should strive to achieve the integration of refining and chemical, the light and diversified cracking raw materials, the park and base of production equipment, the differentiation and high-end of downstream products, etc.
, make full use of steam cracking The advantages of diversification of by-products, the comprehensive utilization of carbon four, carbon five and aromatics, in order to reduce production costs and enhance competitiveness
.
2) Under low oil prices, the coal-to-olefins industry needs to transform the rough development model of scale expansion in the past, adhere to the refined development strategy, innovate the construction operation model, refine the raw material processing path, improve the resource utilization rate, reduce the cost, and pay attention to environmental protection.
, Energy-saving, emission-reduction, water-saving and other links, in order to meet the more stringent environmental protection requirements in the future
.
3) The development of methanol-to-olefins mainly depends on stable and cheap sources of methanol.
It is possible to consider deploying natural gas-to-methanol projects in the Middle East as the raw material for domestic olefin production, or following the “Belt and Road” thinking, especially the deployment of natural gas-to-methanol to olefins in Central Asia The project is to reduce the cost of raw materials, and at the same time consider extending the methanol-to-olefin industry chain to the development of fine chemicals, and increase the added value of products
.
4) Imported ethane cracking to produce ethylene can be considered, but a stable, continuous, and reasonably priced supply of ethane raw materials should be implemented first to avoid the failure of the equipment due to raw material interruption, and at the same time to avoid the high operating cost of the equipment caused by the soaring price of raw materials
.
5) Continue to research and develop methane to ethylene and synthesis gas to ethylene technology
.
Strengthen the investment in research and development of methane to ethylene and synthesis gas to ethylene, strive for breakthroughs in catalysts and other core technologies, solve engineering technical problems, and realize industrial application as soon as possible
.
