Outlook of corn market in the United States

Introduction: the market generally believes that the corn planting area in the United States will increase by 2-4 million acres this spring, and the unit yield may be 140 bushels / acre The traders' commitment agreement report showed that the fund increased short positions in US corn to 365 million bushels, including options Since June 2001, the fund has never had such a large short position, which means they bet there will be no abnormal climate this year But commercial companies hold a long position of 450 million bushels That means they won't buy more corn But that will change by the end of the month, when producers will be faced with a decision to either sell off for cash or become a may contract position The number of export tests was higher than expected at 37 million bushels, but lower than the weekly average required to meet USDA's target export volume of 1975 million bushels The shipping volume is 8% lower than the same period last year If there is no significant improvement, the export volume may decline in March Although the price of corn futures contract in February will normally rise, the contract in July tried to stabilize at a contract low of 217.50 cents But March is usually the month when prices are stronger, especially if they are weaker in February Now it seems that the price above 222.5 cents is a necessary condition for the price to rise If this happens, the price is expected to rise to 230-232 cents, and possibly 248 cents But if export sales do not improve significantly, the market price cannot reach this level In terms of time, the high price may appear around March 13 or 27 If the July corn contract doesn't hold steady at 217.50 cents, then the bottom price may be about 210 cents at the end of this month The price of futures contracts in December may rise to 240-247 cents It's possible that the price will rise to 252 cents, but in order to make the price rise further, the planting of corn in spring needs to be delayed or have a humid and cold climate (author:) share to feed Weibo share to: