Pfizer's new crown vaccine Comirnaty and oral drug Paxlovid miss first-quarter sales

CompilationFan Dongdong, haon

In a note to clients on Monday, Cantor Fitzgerald's Louise Chen analyst team said it had lowered its Q1 2022 sales forecast for Pfizer, but kept its full-year forecast "unchanged".

The reason for the downgrade is that the team's latest forecast believes that the sales revenue of Pfizer's new crown oral drug Paxlovid and new crown vaccine Comirnaty will be lower than expected in Q1 this year

Paxlovid: U.

A previous consensus had expected first-quarter U.

In this regard, the Cantor Fitzgerald analysis team pointed out that according to the website of the US Department of Health and Human Services (HHS), Pfizer has distributed a total of 1.

Analysts have done a mathematical estimate of the regimens deployed by the company in 2021 and believe the company may have distributed a total of 1.

Paxlovid: Markets outside the U.

A similar situation exists outside the U.

However, Pfizer will need to dispense more than about 4 million courses of treatment in Q1 2022 to hit that sales target, but analysts say it will be difficult to achieve that growth given the already relatively large number of Q4 2021 distributions

Currently, analysts expect Paxlovid’s Q1 sales outside the U.

Comirnaty: halved from $2 billion expected

Why: Vaccine distributions drop by half

In terms of COVID-19 vaccines, analysts previously unanimously estimated that Pfizer’s mRNA vaccine Comirnaty’s sales in the U.

In Q4 2021, the U.

However, in Q1 2022, the US CDC website shows an increase of 47 million doses for vaccine distribution

If the sales corresponding to 103 million doses in Q4 2021 is US$2.

About Comirnaty and Paxlovid

It is worth mentioning that, as the first mRNA new crown vaccine approved by the regulatory authorities, Comirnaty has already made a big splash in 2021, with sales reaching 37 billion US dollars, becoming the world's best-selling drug, helping Pfizer to become the "King of Medicine".
The so-called Humira ($20.
6 billion) squeezed out of the throne
.

Up to now, Comirnaty has been approved in many countries and regions such as the United States, the European Union, Hong Kong, China and Macau, China
.
In Greater China, Fosun Pharma cooperates with BioNtech for localized production and commercialization.
The vaccine will be included in the Hong Kong and Macau government vaccination plan in March 2021, and will be vaccinated in Taiwan, China in September 2021, but it has not yet been approved in the mainland.
batch listing
.

Paxlovid only received emergency approval from the FDA on December 22, 2021, and immediately won an order of 20 million courses of treatment from the US government.
On December 16 of the same year, the European Medicines Agency (EMA) also issued an announcement suggesting that EU member states are urgently The drug can be used under certain circumstances, and in January this year, Paxlovid was conditionally approved for the treatment of new coronavirus infection, and the indication is for the treatment of adult patients who do not require supplemental oxygen and are at high risk of developing severe treatment of new coronavirus infection
.

In addition, on February 11, 2022, Paxlovid has been approved for import registration in China or NMPA with conditions
.
On March 15, 2022, the National Health and Medical Commission issued the "New Coronavirus Pneumonia Diagnosis and Treatment Plan (Trial Version 9)", which included Paxlovi in ​​the diagnosis and treatment plan
.
On March 21, 2022, the National Medical Insurance Administration issued the "Notice on Effectively Doing a Good Job in Medical Insurance for Current Epidemic Prevention and Control", and included Paxlovid in medical insurance
.

It is reported that Pfizer expects Comirnaty to achieve revenue of more than $32 billion in 2022; Paxlovid will achieve high revenue of more than $22 billion
.

But for now, analysts have significantly lowered their expectations for the sales performance of Comirnaty and Paxlovid in Q1 2022
.

What are the real sales of Comirnaty and Paxlovid in Q1 2022, and what is their overall sales performance in 2022? Everything awaits the announcement of Pfizer's financial report and subsequent performance, and Sina Pharmaceuticals will continue to pay attention
.

Reference source: High-flying Pfizer may disappoint on Comirnaty and Paxlovid sales in Q1, analyst warns