Pharmaceutical industry as a whole callback industry differentiation trend

Source: on June 16, 2014, the growth rate of the pharmaceutical sector, which is famous for its high growth and defense, slowed down significantly in the second half of last year, both in performance and stock price According to industry analysts, this is the beginning of the differentiation of the pharmaceutical industry Zhou Rui, the No.1 in the pharmaceutical industry and chief analyst of Haitong Securities pharmaceutical industry, the best analyst of first finance and economics, said on Saturday morning that the sector will be greatly differentiated in the future due to growth expectations In terms of investment direction, the medical service segment will be stronger than the pharmaceutical manufacturing sector in the next three to five years, and innovation and M & A will also help to improve the high growth expectations of individual stocks Industry differentiation "in the past six months, the growth rate of high growth companies in the pharmaceutical industry has been declining, and the valuation of pharmaceutical stocks famous for defense has been going down." Zhou Rui, reviewing the trend of the sector at the first financial best analyst selection site, said that during the peak period of growth in the pharmaceutical industry in 2009, 60% of the companies in the industry had a profit growth of about 30%; at present, the proportion of Companies in the industry that still maintain the growth rate has been reduced to 25% Affected by the overall correction of the plate since the second half of last year, the lower than expected performance in the first quarter, the price reduction of Chinese patent medicine, and the delay in bidding, the once glorious pharmaceutical plate is now shrouded in gloom According to the Shenyin world class I industry index, the pharmaceutical sector fell in March and April, reaching 4.4% and 3.08% respectively According to the Research Report of the pharmaceutical industry research group of Societe Generale Securities, the second best financial analyst in the pharmaceutical industry, the sales revenue of the pharmaceutical manufacturing industry increased by 13.46% in the first two months of this year, and the total profit increased by 15.00% Zhou Rui said that the pharmaceutical industry has entered a stable growth period at the end of 2013, which is influenced by the slowing growth of government investment in drug purchase, and is an inevitable trend in the development and differentiation of the industry However, companies that accurately enter the subdivision field and pursue high growth can still find a stable growth market of 3-5 years in the pharmaceutical board Innovation is considered by Zhou Rui as a springboard for pharmaceutical enterprises to make efforts The current situation of industrial production dominated by safe and invalid generic drugs will be broken Innovation has become the development direction of pharmaceutical industry and has been effective for listed companies Extended M & A is also listed as the main line of industry investment by many securities companies this year Zhou Rui said that when the company can not sustain the growth rate by relying on endogenous growth, the extension demand is further highlighted; although the success rate is still difficult to guarantee, it is still one of the development paths that can be explored in the next three to five years to enhance the enterprise scale through M & A "For the pharmaceutical sector, growth is more important now than defensive." Zhou Rui told the first financial daily that the growth expectation difference will lead to the gradual division of the plate The phenomenon that low growth companies are in the stage of research and development of high growth companies with undervalued value and loss for a long time and then get a hundred times valuation is likely to coexist in the future In the first half of the year, the pharmaceutical industry in the stage of hot rotation and valuation adjustment was not calm, and the hot switching was frequently affected by policies In April, the national development and Reform Commission, the health and Family Planning Commission and the Ministry of human resources and Social Security jointly issued the notice on issues related to the implementation of market adjusted prices for medical services in non-public medical institutions, which stressed the need to further promote the independent pricing policy for medical services and encourage diversified medical services On June 1, the newly revised regulations on the supervision and administration of medical devices came into effect Compared with the old regulations, the requirements of deregulation, innovation encouragement and software were emphasized The low-cost drug policies concerned by the market have also been implemented in the near future In May this year, the national development and Reform Commission issued the notice on improving the price management of low-cost drugs, which made breakthroughs in improving the price management mode of low-cost drugs, determining the daily average cost standard of low-cost drugs, establishing the entry and exit mechanism of low-cost drugs list and strengthening the supervision of market price behavior The debate about the impact of policy has not stopped Taking the introduction of low-cost drug policy as an example, the second best financial analyst and the research group of Guojin securities pharmaceutical industry said in the report that the policy will benefit the industry, but the effect still depends on more supporting policies and cooperation of various departments Zhou Rui said frankly that the low-cost drug catalog itself does not conform to the logic of drug consumption in the past; even if the price is raised, the low-cost drug is still in the low-cost category, and there is the possibility of losing the market, and it will not bring actual performance contribution As for the secondary market volatility caused by the hot spots in the first half of the year, Zhou Rui told reporters that at present, it is still the short-term behavior of funds; the market cycle caused by the current hot new technologies and products such as extension M & A and gene sequencing will be very long, and the current fundamentals of the industry and the company remain unchanged At the same time, Zhou Rui said that due to the expected release of the market in the first half of the year on the price reduction of Chinese patent medicine and the introduction of low-cost drug policies, the implementation of future policies will not bring great fluctuations to the market "For the sector, what's more important is new things, including whether the industry data has improved, and whether there are new policies to promote it For example, we should pay more attention to the new bidding expectations in the future, including the medical insurance catalogue, rather than the implementation of the old policies