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Pig prices have continued to fall in recent days, and have fallen to the 12 yuan mark so far, and hog futures have also hit a new low
in nearly 4 months.
Cai Lian News Agency reporters learned that due to the gradual stabilization of pig supply, coupled with weak consumer demand, resulting in a continuous decline in pig prices, further causing farmers to panic out of the slaughter, pig prices may be difficult to continue the previous sharp rise in this year, and subsequent pork consumption may have a situation of low peak season
.
The pig period is now double-dropped
Data monitoring of Xinmu.
com shows that as of November 10, the average price of pigs (foreign three yuan) in the country is 12.
26 yuan / jin, which is about to fall into the 12 yuan level
.
From a high of 14.
28 yuan / jin on October 24 to the current 12.
26 yuan / jin, only in the past half month, the decline is more than 2 yuan / jin
.
(Image source: Xinmu.
com)
In addition, while the price of the pig spot market continued to fall, hog futures also hit a new low in the past 4 months, and as of the date of writing, the main contract index of hog futures closed at 21155 yuan / ton
.
For this round of continuous decline, some industry analysts said that it is mainly because the continued weakness of the consumer side has led to a decline in pig prices, and exceeded the expected sentiment of farmers.
According to calculations, compared with the high point half a month ago, for every 120 kg pig slaughtered, the breeding profit shrank by nearly 500 yuan
.
"This is still not taking into account the rising cost of feed, so now many of our farmers are out of the slaughter, afraid that pig prices will not fall
.
" A number of farmers told
reporters.
Yongyi Consulting Zheng Lili holds the same view on this: "Yongyi monitoring data shows that the slaughterhouse slaughter volume in October is much lower than the same period last year, and even worse than in previous years, due to the weak demand for pork consumption, pig prices continue to fall, and the decline in pig prices has further caused panic at the breeding end, the increase in slaughter has further promoted the decline in pig prices, and farmers have also appeared a psychology
of falling and selling.
" ”
The decline in pig prices has made farmers enthusiastic about pickling and the winter solstice consumption season decline in the early stage, and they are also waiting for the arrival of the subsequent peak season
.
"The drop in pig prices has caused a certain panic for farmers, and at present, many farmers below me have accelerated their slaughter progress
.
However, there are still some secondary fattening and pen farmers who are still resisting prices, believing that there will be a wave of rebound in pig prices in the next peak season
.
Mr.
Zhu, the head of a livestock station in southwest China, told
the CaiLian reporter.
High season or not? Weak support under weak consumption
Will pig prices rebound with the winter solstice and pickling season? Can farmers wait for peak season?
From the supply side, the overall slaughter data of major listed pig enterprises has continued to increase month-on-month since August; On the other hand, the current retail and secondary fattening markets are also gradually supplied, and the medium and large pig markets will be correspondingly sufficient
in the later stage.
The National Development and Reform Commission has also repeatedly said that the pig production capacity is now very sufficient, and the price does not have a basis for a big rise in the later period
.
In the case of stable supply, the consumption side has become an important factor
in determining the trend of pig prices.
Data released by the National Bureau of Statistics on November 9 showed that pork prices rose 51.
8% year-on-year, affecting the CPI by about 0.
64 percentage points
.
As of the fourth week of October, the price of pork rose to 41.
61 yuan / kg, and the high pig price of last week for 11 consecutive weeks also suppressed the consumer demand
for pork.
The first-line consumer market also reflects this situation, the reporter in a number of large agricultural products wholesale market random interviews learned that most consumers and merchants believe that the current pork price is still high, there is a certain inhibition of consumption, in the high pig price will be biased towards chicken or beef
.
In addition, enema will be carried out gradually in November, and pickling will be gradually promoted
from the end of the year.
However, the reporter learned from many places in Sichuan and Chongqing that the current data of sausage filling is about 60%
lower than the same period last year.
"Last year, I had to pour hundreds of pounds of meat a day, but at this time this year, I can pour 100 pounds a day, I don't know if it will be better in the future
.
" A wholesale market worker told
reporters.
In this regard, Shanghai Steel Union pig analyst Pan Tingting believes that this year's pig price is higher than last year, and the high pig price affects consumption
to a certain extent.
Mysteel agricultural product data shows that the average price of pigs slaughtered in Sichuan on November 8 was 25.
35 yuan / kg, compared with 18.
43 yuan / kg in the same period last year, an increase of 6.
92 yuan / kg year-on-year, an increase of 37.
57%.
Not only Sichuan, but also the national pig slaughter price this year is also at a high level, and the terminal is more resistant to the high pig price and consumption is limited
.
In addition, the recent recurrence of the epidemic in many places in the southern region has also paved a layer of fog
for the subsequent consumption season.
"According to the situation in previous years, generally by mid-November, consumer demand is better than the previous month, but this year has not appeared, and the monitoring of slaughterhouse slaughterhouses from January to October this year is worse than in previous years, so it may be weaker than previous years, and the peak season is relatively weak, but there is still some uncertainty
in the follow-up.
" Zheng Lili said
.
;
;Pig prices have continued to fall in recent days, and have fallen to the 12 yuan mark so far, and hog futures have also hit a new low
in nearly 4 months.
Cai Lian News Agency reporters learned that due to the gradual stabilization of pig supply, coupled with weak consumer demand, resulting in a continuous decline in pig prices, further causing farmers to panic out of the slaughter, pig prices may be difficult to continue the previous sharp rise in this year, and subsequent pork consumption may have a situation of low peak season
.
in nearly 4 months.
The pig period is now double-dropped
The pig period is now double-droppedData monitoring of Xinmu.
com shows that as of November 10, the average price of pigs (foreign three yuan) in the country is 12.
26 yuan / jin, which is about to fall into the 12 yuan level
.
From a high of 14.
28 yuan / jin on October 24 to the current 12.
26 yuan / jin, only in the past half month, the decline is more than 2 yuan / jin
.
(Image source: Xinmu.
com)
com) (Image source: Xinmu.
com) (Image source: Xinmu.
com).
In addition, while the price of the pig spot market continued to fall, hog futures also hit a new low in the past 4 months, and as of the date of writing, the main contract index of hog futures closed at 21155 yuan / ton
.
For this round of continuous decline, some industry analysts said that it is mainly because the continued weakness of the consumer side has led to a decline in pig prices, and exceeded the expected sentiment of farmers.
According to calculations, compared with the high point half a month ago, for every 120 kg pig slaughtered, the breeding profit shrank by nearly 500 yuan
.
"This is still not taking into account the rising cost of feed, so now many of our farmers are out of the slaughter, afraid that pig prices will not fall
.
" A number of farmers told
reporters.
Yongyi Consulting Zheng Lili holds the same view on this: "Yongyi monitoring data shows that the slaughterhouse slaughter volume in October is much lower than the same period last year, and even worse than in previous years, due to the weak demand for pork consumption, pig prices continue to fall, and the decline in pig prices has further caused panic at the breeding end, the increase in slaughter has further promoted the decline in pig prices, and farmers have also appeared a psychology
of falling and selling.
" ”
The decline in pig prices has made farmers enthusiastic about pickling and the winter solstice consumption season decline in the early stage, and they are also waiting for the arrival of the subsequent peak season
.
"The drop in pig prices has caused a certain panic for farmers, and at present, many farmers below me have accelerated their slaughter progress
.
However, there are still some secondary fattening and pen farmers who are still resisting prices, believing that there will be a wave of rebound in pig prices in the next peak season
.
Mr.
Zhu, the head of a livestock station in southwest China, told
the CaiLian reporter.
High season or not? Weak support under weak consumption
High season or not? Weak support under weak consumptionWill pig prices rebound with the winter solstice and pickling season? Can farmers wait for peak season?
From the supply side, the overall slaughter data of major listed pig enterprises has continued to increase month-on-month since August; On the other hand, the current retail and secondary fattening markets are also gradually supplied, and the medium and large pig markets will be correspondingly sufficient
in the later stage.
The National Development and Reform Commission has also repeatedly said that the pig production capacity is now very sufficient, and the price does not have a basis for a big rise in the later period
.
In the case of stable supply, the consumption side has become an important factor
in determining the trend of pig prices.
Data released by the National Bureau of Statistics on November 9 showed that pork prices rose 51.
8% year-on-year, affecting the CPI by about 0.
64 percentage points
.
As of the fourth week of October, the price of pork rose to 41.
61 yuan / kg, and the high pig price of last week for 11 consecutive weeks also suppressed the consumer demand
for pork.
The first-line consumer market also reflects this situation, the reporter in a number of large agricultural products wholesale market random interviews learned that most consumers and merchants believe that the current pork price is still high, there is a certain inhibition of consumption, in the high pig price will be biased towards chicken or beef
.
In addition, enema will be carried out gradually in November, and pickling will be gradually promoted
from the end of the year.
However, the reporter learned from many places in Sichuan and Chongqing that the current data of sausage filling is about 60%
lower than the same period last year.
"Last year, I had to pour hundreds of pounds of meat a day, but at this time this year, I can pour 100 pounds a day, I don't know if it will be better in the future
.
" A wholesale market worker told
reporters.
In this regard, Shanghai Steel Union pig analyst Pan Tingting believes that this year's pig price is higher than last year, and the high pig price affects consumption
to a certain extent.
Mysteel agricultural product data shows that the average price of pigs slaughtered in Sichuan on November 8 was 25.
35 yuan / kg, compared with 18.
43 yuan / kg in the same period last year, an increase of 6.
92 yuan / kg year-on-year, an increase of 37.
57%.
Not only Sichuan, but also the national pig slaughter price this year is also at a high level, and the terminal is more resistant to the high pig price and consumption is limited
.
In addition, the recent recurrence of the epidemic in many places in the southern region has also paved a layer of fog
for the subsequent consumption season.
"According to the situation in previous years, generally by mid-November, consumer demand is better than the previous month, but this year has not appeared, and the monitoring of slaughterhouse slaughterhouses from January to October this year is worse than in previous years, so it may be weaker than previous years, and the peak season is relatively weak, but there is still some uncertainty
in the follow-up.
" Zheng Lili said
.
