Pig prices will continue to hover at the bottom in the second half of 2013

the current economic situation: China's economic growth slowss3Meconomic data from the beginning of this year to date show that China's economic growth will remain weakSince April 15, 2013, China's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew 7.7 percent in the first quarter of 2013 from the same period in 2012, slowing from 7.9 percent in the fourth quarter of 2012, according to data released by the National Bureau of Statisticss3M
It is not hard to see from the recent collapse in the gold price market and the bank's money shortage: the country's tightpolicy and the depressed economic situationUnder the trend of economic development of the whole country, it is inevitable that the relevant industrial chain should make corresponding structural adjustmentFrom the macro-level of the economy, how does this affect the pig market?s3M
We all know that the main source of local economy and fiscal revenue, real estate can be said to occupy half of the mountainsThe real estate industry itself is a pillar industry, but also a very strong correlation of the industry, about 50 industries and the real estate industry is closely relatedAnd the real estate industry chain involved in the industrial workers have hundreds of millions of, their consumption of pork can not be underestimated, although the central government has repeatedly stressed the adherence to real estate regulation and control policies, but the local government is in the dilemma of controlling housing prices and steady growth, subject to a variety of factors, the actual regulatory effect is not only difficult to show, or even counterproductiveAt this stage in China, real estate is not only an economic issue, but also a social problemWhether the real estate market is up or down, it will cause more social problems Therefore, the impact on pig prices is also obvious This is also the main reason why there are not many pigs recently and the price of pigs has been repeatedly depressed Therefore, if the economic situation does not make a qualitative leap, pig prices will be long-term floating at about seven yuan s3M
　　First, from the national level to shield, throughout the first half of the pig market, under the pull of the national two collection and storage policy, the overall rate of increase in pig prices throughout the country compared to April and May 2013 has a clear boost, the pig industry prices as a whole caused a certain impact, but this is after all, after all, the national collection and storage policy exit, the entire pig industry with market fluctuations is also very normal s3M
　　Second, the current domestic market is in the downturn stage of consumption, March-August is the traditional sense of pork consumption off-season, the later with the temperature rise, pig transfer risk increased, the market pig circulation weakened, some areas or the emergence of pig source backlog phenomenon In the demand for pork, the consumer market will enter the lowest consumption season It is expected that the late pig market will be affected by the above two aspects, prices will fall, but the range is limited, the aquaculture industry and slaughter industry will enter the "micro profit" and "zero profit" period However, according to the holiday consumption characteristics, it is expected that the Mid-Autumn Festival, National Day and other holiday consumption peak will lead to a rebound in pig prices, but the year pig prices are unlikely to rise significantly s3M
　　Third, combined with the current "complement column heat" and sow high storage column situation, the industry many think that most farmers in the last two years have a certain income, enough funds to support the high temperature off-season market, the current domestic pig and can breed sow storage column overall high operation, this year the industry significantly eliminated sow phenomenon has not appeared As a result, the country can breed sow sow column for a long time to maintain more than 50 million head, the future rise in pig prices will be more difficult s3M
　　Summary analysis
s3M according to the relevant data forecast, in the second half of this year, China's economic situation is not optimistic, to maintain steady development is the first task Because, at present, China's economy as a whole is still in the downward cycle since 2008, the international economic recovery is still slow, exports are difficult to achieve rapid growth, capital inflows remain low, domestic demand growth and overall consumption growth slowed, China's economic growth in the short term is difficult to show strong growth momentum In the face of such an unoptimistic market outlook, coupled with changes in the domestic market environment, the pig industry in the second half of 2013 will face what kind of development? s3M
　　In the second half of the year there will be several factors affecting the trend of pig prices, one is whether the pig market supply is adequate, the other is whether the pork import sourcing is rising, the third is whether the farmers are willing to continue to make up the column, and the fourth is whether the public's trust in meat products has risen Another point worth noting is that because of the long-term losses of farmers, provincial and municipal governments may introduce corresponding policies to protect the basic capacity of pig production s3M
　　As far as the current market trend, the second half of the pig prices will continue to hover at the bottom s3M the current economic situation: China's economic growth slows s3M economic data from the beginning of this year to date show that China's economic growth will remain weak Since April 15, 2013, China's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew 7.7 percent in the first quarter of 2013 from the same period in 2012, slowing from 7.9 percent in the fourth quarter of 2012, according to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics s3M
　　It is not hard to see from the recent collapse in the gold price market and the bank's money shortage: the country's tight policy and the depressed economic situation Under the trend of economic development of the whole country, it is inevitable that the relevant industrial chain should make corresponding structural adjustment From the macro-level of the economy, how does this affect the pig market? s3M
　　We all know that the main source of local economy and fiscal revenue, real estate can be said to occupy half of the mountains The real estate industry itself is a pillar industry, but also a very strong correlation of the industry, about 50 industries and the real estate industry is closely related And the real estate industry chain involved in the industrial workers have hundreds of millions of, their consumption of pork can not be underestimated, although the central government has repeatedly stressed the adherence to real estate regulation and control policies, but the local government is in the dilemma of controlling housing prices and steady growth, subject to a variety of factors, the actual regulatory effect is not only difficult to show, or even counterproductive At this stage in China, real estate is not only an economic issue, but also a social problem Whether the real estate market is up or down, it will cause more social problems Therefore, the impact on pig prices is also obvious This is also the main reason why there are not many pigs recently and the price of pigs has been repeatedly depressed Therefore, if the economic situation does not make a qualitative leap, pig prices will be long-term floating at about seven yuan s3M
　　First, from the national level to shield, throughout the first half of the pig market, under the pull of the national two collection and storage policy, the overall rate of increase in pig prices throughout the country compared to April and May 2013 has a clear boost, the pig industry prices as a whole caused a certain impact, but this is after all, after all, the national collection and storage policy exit, the entire pig industry with market fluctuations is also very normal s3M
　　Second, the current domestic market is in the downturn stage of consumption, March-August is the traditional sense of pork consumption off-season, the later with the temperature rise, pig transfer risk increased, the market pig circulation weakened, some areas or the emergence of pig source backlog phenomenon In the demand for pork, the consumer market will enter the lowest consumption season It is expected that the late pig market will be affected by the above two aspects, prices will fall, but the range is limited, the aquaculture industry and slaughter industry will enter the "micro profit" and "zero profit" period However, according to the holiday consumption characteristics, it is expected that the Mid-Autumn Festival, National Day and other holiday consumption peak will lead to a rebound in pig prices, but the year pig prices are unlikely to rise significantly s3M
　　Third, combined with the current "complement column heat" and sow high storage column situation, the industry many think that most farmers in the last two years have a certain income, enough funds to support the high temperature off-season market, the current domestic pig and can breed sow storage column overall high operation, this year the industry significantly eliminated sow phenomenon has not appeared As a result, the country can breed sow sow column for a long time to maintain more than 50 million head, the future rise in pig prices will be more difficult s3M
　　Summary analysis
s3M according to the relevant data forecast, in the second half of this year, China's economic situation is not optimistic, to maintain steady development is the first task Because, at present, China's economy as a whole is still in the downward cycle since 2008, the international economic recovery is still slow, exports are difficult to achieve rapid growth, capital inflows remain low, domestic demand growth and overall consumption growth slowed, China's economic growth in the short term is difficult to show strong growth momentum In the face of such an unoptimistic market outlook, coupled with changes in the domestic market environment, the pig industry in the second half of 2013 will face what kind of development? s3M
　　In the second half of the year there will be several factors affecting the trend of pig prices, one is whether the pig market supply is adequate, the other is whether the pork import sourcing is rising, the third is whether the farmers are willing to continue to make up the column, and the fourth is whether the public's trust in meat products has risen Another point worth noting is that because of the long-term losses of farmers, provincial and municipal governments may introduce corresponding policies to protect the basic capacity of pig production s3M
　　As far as the current market trend, the second half of the pig prices will continue to hover at the bottom s3M