Production and market forecast of rapeseed in Henan Province

Introduction: [production and market forecast of rape seeds in Henan Province] 1 Production situation analysis according to the sampling survey of Henan provincial agricultural survey team, this year's winter planting area of rapeseed is 3.4 million mu, 320000 Mu less than the actual area of the previous year, and the total production is expected to be 33% of the previous year 760000 tons were basically flat After driving rape sowing, there is less rain and snow, which makes the early growth of rape seedling complete and strong, laying a good foundation for later production After the beginning of spring, although there is less rain, drought and "late spring cold" in some areas, it has little impact on rape production In the later stage, the weather is clear, the sunshine is good and the temperature is high, which is very suitable for the later growth of rape At present, most areas have been reaped with sickle From the perspective of harvest, the amount of oil is generally good, and the oil content is mostly between 34-39%, which is better than the previous years II Market situation and price trend forecast the current oil market has changed the influence of domestic oil production in the past, which is closely related to the imported oil, the number of oil products arriving at the port and the arrival time With the harvest and marketing of South American soybeans and the arrival of a large number of imported soybeans, the supply of domestic soybeans is unprecedented and sufficient, and the cost of arrival in the later period is getting lower and lower, the price of soybean series products will step into the overall downward pattern, and the later period of secondary oil market will be very severe In particular, the supply time of domestic rapeseed on the market is basically the same as that of imported soybeans, which leads to the situation of oversupply in the oil market This will undoubtedly increase the margin for processing enterprises to choose and discount the varieties with large processing profits, which provides the market with a large space to choose Many processing enterprises that stopped production due to loss of processing soybean in the previous period are waiting for the listing of new rapeseed, which may cause the price to be raised at the initial stage of listing because everyone is rushing to buy, but with the whole oil market The market price will be lowered, and the purchase price of rapeseed may gradually adapt to the market and go down At the same time, the price difference between canola oil and sunflower seed oil and soybean oil is not big (50-100 yuan / ton) The original consumption areas of canola oil gradually change their consumption habits to edible sunflower oil or soybean oil Many distribution businesses gradually give up operating canola oil and switch to other varieties, resulting in the sales volume of canola oil becoming smaller and smaller In view of this, it is expected that the acquisition price of canola seed in Henan Province will be held last year Ping, roughly 1 About 60 yuan / kg, then it will fluctuate up and down according to the changing market supply and demand China feed industry information network h8z