Propylene oxide: A brief talk about 2017? A snoop on 2018

In 2017, the overall propylene oxide price opened higher than in 2016, and continued to fluctuate around 10,000 yuan
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In the first half of 2017, the price of China's propylene oxide market returned to the normal price range compared to 2016.
However, it fluctuated and continued to fluctuate within a narrow range.
The long-short staggered market showed significant characteristics such as fast frequency, small amplitude, and short cycle, which intensified the market.
Traders’ risks and difficulties.
In the second half of the year, with the commissioning of Jinling Huntsman’s installations, there was a surge in August/September under the influence of market supply and demand.
The favorable demand for “Golden Nine, Silver and Ten” was “overdrawn in advance”.
"In the fourth quarter, the market continued to be organized at a high level, long and short intertwined, upstream and downstream are gambling with each other, the market has been high for several times, and it is difficult to go down.
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Capacity-Output As of the end of 2017, the effective domestic production capacity of propylene oxide was 3.
221 million tons, compared with 2016 The new production capacity was the 80,000 tons/year installation of Shandong Sanyue Phase III in May, and the 240,000 tons/year installation of Nanjing Jinling Huntsman in July.
However, Shandong Dongda permanently shut down its 80,000 tons/year plant in early April.
For the PO plant, the actual increase in production capacity throughout the year is mostly reflected in the release of Jinling Huntsman’s production capacity.
Under the background of the overall increase in production capacity from the previous month, the output in 2017 did not increase significantly.
As of the end of October, the total domestic propylene oxide production was in About 2.
14 million tons, the annual output is expected to reach about 2.
65 million tons, which is a limited increase compared to last year’s 2.
58 million tons of annual output.
This aspect reflects that the overall PO utilization rate in 2017 was lower than last year, and the average annual PO operations were started.
The rate is mostly around 80%, but under the background of environmental protection pressure in the north and the unstable start of some new process capacity, the overall start of PO in January-November 2017 was less than 80%.
Price-profit article as of the end of October, 2017 domestic propylene oxide The average price is 9,979 yuan/ton (Shandong cash exchange factory), the average profit is 2,205 yuan/ton, which is 12.
41% higher than the 2016 average price of 8,877 yuan/ton, and the profit is even more than the 2016 average annual profit of 1,440 yuan/ton.
5.
3% higher.
The overall price fluctuated between 9,000-10,000 yuan/ton in the first half of 2017, and most of the second half fluctuated at a high level above 10,000 yuan.
As of now, the highest point in the year has occurred at 13,400 yuan/ton in mid-to-late August.
At that time, it was mainly affected by the uncertainty of news such as the centralized launch of Jinling Huntsman and Jilin Shenhua installations, which caused the industry to be overly bearish on the market.
Under the stimulus of downstream short positions, the factory took advantage of the momentum to rise, and the price went all the way.
high
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The lowest point occurred at 8550 yuan/ton in early May.
At that time, due to the concentrated driving of the new installations of Jishen and Sanyue Phase III, and the weak demand and other bad news, the industry’s bearish expectations were aggravated, and the downstream risk aversion sentiment deepened buying retreat, leading to Supply and demand are unfavorable expansion, and prices are bottoming out in stages
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Looking at the overall price trend this year, the price trend is slightly flatter than in previous years.
Although the price has risen compared with last year, it is still low compared to the average price of 2010-2015
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Import-Export Propylene oxide has been gradually launched with new domestic production capacity, and the import dependence has been decreasing year by year.
As of 2017, the import dependence has dropped to below 10%.
This year, the import and export volume of cyclic propylene has shown a sharp decline in the month-on-month trend.
In 2017 The cumulative total domestic propylene oxide imports from January to September was only 175,400 tons, a year-on-year decline of 28.
6%.
During this period, the total imports in June and September exceeded year-on-year, and the export volume was not the same as last year.
The decrease in imports is mainly due to the instability of some installations in Saudi Arabia and the United States this year, which has reduced imports to China.
In particular, the United States has significantly reduced its imports from last year.
The United States' total imports from China this year are expected to drop by about 50% from the previous month
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While China faces export policy barriers, the export volume has little impact on the domestic propylene oxide supply and demand pattern.
In the future, with the gradual launch of new HPPO process installations, the domestic propylene oxide market is expected to open the door to exports
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Environmental Protection-Policy Under the background that most of the current bulk petrochemical products are facing the pressure of overcapacity, propylene oxide is "self-serving" relying on the domestic market pattern of short supply, maintaining high profits and dominance of the industrial chain throughout the year.
There will be several waves of domestic propylene oxide every year.
Irrational pulls up the market, and under such an industry background, government environmental inspections have evolved into "accomplices" in boosting PO prices
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In 2017, several policy-driven influencing factors interfered with: the “Belt and Road” Beijing Conference held in mid-May; the August/September National Games and the “Nineteenth National Congress” news troubled industry psychology, as well as batches and phases.
The government’s requirements for atmospheric governance in 2+26 cities are under heavy environmental protection pressures.
The domestic chlorohydrin plant is under heavy pressure.
Several major factories in Shandong have taken turns overhauling.
The centralized release of overhauls is good for stimulating the market and successfully reversed the market.
This also reflects the frequent volatility of the entire PO market, and the market pattern of rising and falling only for a moment
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2018-Opportunities and challenges coexist 2018-2020 is the three years of concentrated release of new domestic propylene oxide production capacity
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The new PO production capacity planned for 2018 includes: Nanjing Hongbaoli Group's 120,000 tons/year self-use installation; Blue Planet 400,000 tons/year HPPO installation; CITIC Guoan 80,000 tons/year PO/SM co-production installation; other new The increase in production capacity will be difficult to complete effective production during 2018, and the above three new production capacity devices are affected by technical barriers and various factors.
It is still unknown whether they can be put into production smoothly in 2018.
Even if they can be put into production smoothly, the capacity utilization rate of the new process is low.
, It is expected that the overall new effective production capacity will remain limited in 2018
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In addition, in the first half of 2018, many major domestic and foreign PO devices have maintenance plans.
Under the situation of concentrated domestic and foreign supply in the first half of 2018, the prices of internal and external disks are bound to rise significantly, and the flow of market supplies will also undergo regional adjustments.
In terms of the market, it is reported that in the second quarter of next year, two major factories in East China and Shandong will have parking maintenance plans for nearly two months.
By then, there will be a huge shortage of supply in the East China region, and the downstream will stock up in advance under the panic on the news.
This move will inevitably result in a surge in the PO market in the first half of next year.
Based on the above theoretical inference, it is expected that the price of PO in 2018 will be higher than that in 2017, but it will be postponed to mid-2018 with the centralized resumption of overhaul devices and an increase of 300,000 in South Korea.
When the ton/year production capacity is put on the market, there will be a rational decline cycle in the market after the market rises and the demand is off-season
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Under the collision of centralized maintenance and repair, 2018 will compete with the release of new production capacity.
For the propylene oxide market, 2018 will be a year of opportunities and challenges coexisting.
Under this market background, the operability of the industry will be enhanced, coupled with domestic environmental protection.
Under the increasingly severe situation, the pressure for the overall industrial transformation and upgrading still exists in the future
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