Prospects for grain and oilseed crops in Canada

Introduction: sowing in western Canada has ended, but it has been delayed in Manitoba due to excessive soil moisture Aafc expects production in western Canada to decline from April's report due to extreme droughts in Alberta and Western Saskatchewan The estimated spring planting area, with the exception of durum and spring wheat, is based on data from a survey of planting intentions conducted by Statistics Canada in late March However, due to drought, aafc's price forecast for durum wheat is slightly higher than that of Statistics Canada East Canada is the main corn and soybean producing area in Canada, and planting has ended Most of the soil moisture is in good condition, and the expected per unit yield is higher than the low level in 2000 / 01 Aafc expects total grain and oilseed production in Canada to be 59 million tons, about 6 million tons lower than in 2000 / 01 Exports and domestic consumption are expected to decline due to a decline in supply It is expected that global wheat processing will be higher than the level in 2000 / 01 due to the decline in production and the decline in end of period stocks in major exporting countries Global crude grain prices are expected to be basically the same as in 2000 / 01, as the United States continues to maintain an adequate supply of corn The current low level of oil seed price is expected to remain due to the oversupply of global oil seeds and the low price of edible oil The main factors include: the growth of crops in major import and export countries, the harvest of Winter Wheat in the United States, China's accession to the WTO and the exchange rate between the Canadian dollar and the United States dollar Wheat (non durum): wheat production is expected to decline by 8% in 2001 / 02, although the planting area is increased, due to the decline of unit yield Due to the decline in supply, the decline in exports is expected to be only 13.4 million tons, the third lowest since the 1988 / 89 drought Feed consumption is expected to decline due to tight supply, but the strong demand for pig feed keeps its feed consumption at a historically high level It is expected that the ending inventory will continue to decline, which is the lowest since 1994 / 95, lower than the 5-year average of 22% In cwb5's forecast for 2001 / 02, the price of 11.5% protein content of CWRS No 1 is expected to fall by US $1 / ton to US $208 / ton compared with April, but increase by US $18 / ton compared with 2000 / 01 Ontario's winter wheat production is expected to decline by 28% to 1 million tons According to the price outlook of Ontario wheat producer market and Trade Bureau, the price of ceww 1 wheat is expected to be 135-145 US dollars / ton, 30 US dollars / ton higher than that in 2000 / 01 Hard wheat: the expected yield drop is 25% due to the decrease of planting area and unit yield The decline in production was offset by a 51% increase in the beginning of the period, with supply still 10% higher than the five-year average Exports are expected to increase by 0.3 million tonnes as global demand continues to be strong and North Africa is expected to have lower production for the third consecutive year It is expected that the domestic feed consumption will remain at the normal level, compared with the abnormally high feed consumption in 2000 / 01 It is expected that the ending inventory will decrease to 2.1 million tons, but it is still far higher than the 5-year average of 1.6 million tons Cwb2001 / 02 trade profit outlook forecasts that the price of 11.5% protein content of No 1 cwad is $214 / T, an increase of $8 / t over the previous month, but a decrease of $19 / t over the year 2000 / 01 Barley: the expected yield is slightly lower than that in 2000 / 01, because the expected per unit yield decrease offsets the increase of planting area The total supply is expected to increase slightly Feed consumption is expected to increase due to strong feed demand and a decline in wheat feed The export volume of feed barley is expected to be basically the same as that of 2000 / 01, but the export volume of malt barley is expected to increase slightly due to the continuous strong demand, especially from the United States Inventory is expected to decline at the end of the period Feed barley off-site prices are expected to increase slightly, supported by tight supply of ending inventory CWB trade profit outlook forecasts that No.1 CW feed barley price is 147 USD / ton, an increase of 6 USD / ton compared with 2000 / 01 The price of malted barley is expected to decline due to an increase in global supply of malted barley Oats: it is expected that the yield of oats will increase, which will be offset by the increase of planting area The decrease in supply is expected to be due to a decrease in the stock at the beginning of the period Exports are expected to decline slightly due to a decline in supply, but remain close to the five-year average It is expected that the ending inventory will decrease and the price will be supported Corn: corn production is expected to increase significantly, due to the highest record planting area and the return to normal per unit yield in eastern Canada The decrease in the stock at the beginning of the period will partially offset the increase in production Imports are expected to decline significantly due to increased domestic supply and improved quality Feed consumption is expected to increase slightly due to increased domestic corn supply and lower feed wheat supply in Ontario Expected ending inventory increase The expected price is lower than that in 2000 / 01 due to the decrease of the expected basis and the fact that the corn price in the United States is basically the same as that in 2000 / 01 Rapeseed: expected yield drop of 32% due to decreased planting area and unit yield Supply is also expected to decline significantly, due to a significant decline in the opening inventory and production As a result, the domestic crushing volume and export volume have declined sharply due to the limited supply End of period inventory is expected to decline by 65% Prices are expected to increase only marginally as support from the decline in Canadian supply is offset by low US soybean oil prices, low palm oil prices and adequate global soybean and palm oil supply Flaxseed: the production of flaxseed is expected to increase slightly, because the decrease of planting area is offset by the expected increase of average per unit yield in Manitoba and Saskatchewan The decrease in supply is expected to be offset by a decrease in inventory at the beginning of the period The increase in exports is expected to be due to increased demand in the EU It is expected that the inventory at the end of the period will decrease by 45%, which will give a little support to the price Soybeans: increase in yield is expected, offset by higher yield per unit area Supply is expected to remain stable, offset by a decrease in imports It is expected that the domestic crushing volume and export volume will remain unchanged Prices are expected to decline slightly from current low levels due to higher US supply.