Review and Prospect of soybean market

Introduction: soybean is an important food variety next to rice, wheat and corn in China, and also one of the essential raw materials of edible vegetable oil In 2000, China's soybean market changed greatly: first, the spot price fluctuated greatly; second, the number of imports reached a record; third, the international and domestic futures markets ended the shadow of the bear market since the Asian financial crisis and began to stabilize and recover In 2001, China's soybean market also showed a trend of one after another, but the overall market was relatively stable The main reason is the role played by big business and national macro-control In recent years, as one of the most important crops in our country, soybean is planted almost all over the country From the perspective of planting season, soybean is mainly divided into spring sowing and summer sowing Spring sown soybeans are usually harvested from April to May and September to October In Northeast China and Inner Mongolia, soybean is planted in spring every year Summer sowing can be divided into six months after wheat harvest, September to October harvest, and most of them are planted in Huang Huai Hai region From the perspective of planting mode, in the main soybean producing areas of northeast and Inner Mongolia, the planting mode is generally single field planting, while in other areas, it is mostly intercropped with corn, peanut and other crops In terms of yield, the annual yield of soybeans in China has been around 1000 tons since the 1980s Until 1993, the planting area of soybeans in China had a leap growth, reaching 9.454 million hectares and 15.307 million tons, respectively, 31% and 47% higher than that of the previous year In 1994, the output reached a record 16 million tons Since then, soybean production has been hovering, even showing a shrinking trend in recent years Table 1: Statistics of soybean production in China from 1987 to 2001, 1987, 1988, 1989, 1990, 1991, 1992, 1993, area (844.9, 812.4, 803.8, 756.3, 704.1, 722.1, 945.4, 10000 tons), 1218.4, 1160.2, 1022.8, 1100.0, 988.7, 1042.4, 1530.7 Year: 1994, 1995, 1996, 1997, 1998, 2000, 2001, 922.2812.6, 747.1, 822.0, 820.6, 806.6, 900, 964, 1599.1350.4, 1322.2, 1437.0, 1391.3, 1448, 1539, 1737 Heilongjiang is the most important soybean producing area in China The soybean output of this province generally accounts for about 1 / 3 of the total soybean output of the whole country, and the commodity volume accounts for more than half of the total soybean output of the whole country In 1997, Heilongjiang Province produced 5.76 million tons of soybeans, accounting for 39% of the national output In 1997, there were Hebei, Inner Mongolia, Jilin, Jiangsu, Anhui, Shandong and Henan provinces with soybean output of more than 500000 tons The total soybean output of these seven provinces accounted for 36% of the national soybean output, while that of the other 23 provinces, regions and cities accounted for only 25% 2 The import and export of soybean in China in recent years Before 1995, China had been a net exporter of soybean However, after two years of continuous harvest of soybean in 1993 and 1994, the price increase of corn, wheat and rice in China was much higher than that of soybean, and the production cost of soybean was much higher than that of other food crops, resulting in a significant reduction of soybean planting area In 1995 and 1996, China's soybean production was reduced for two consecutive years The domestic supply was insufficient, but the demand remained strong, and the soybean price remained high To this end, the state timely adjusted the soybean import and export policy, increased imports and reduced exports In 1995, China became a net soybean importer for the first time, and it has continued to this day In 1997, China imported 2.93 million tons of soybeans, accounting for 20% of the total output of soybeans and about 1 / 3 of the total soybean commodity Table 2: Statistics of China's soybean import and export in 1988-2001 (January may), unit: 10000 tons, 1988, 1989, 1990, 1992, 1993, 1994, 1995, 1996, 1997, 1998, 2000, 2001, import volume: 15.20.1, 0.1, 0.1, 12.1, 9.9, 5.0, 79.5, 220, 293, 319, 431.7, 1042, 458 Export volume 148 117 94 111 66.1 37 83 37.5 30 20 17 20.6 21 10 net export volume 133 117 94 111 54 27 78-42-190-273-302-411.1-1021-448 3 soybean consumption in China in recent years In China, soybean is mainly used as oil and feed With the improvement of living standards of urban and rural residents and the adjustment of dietary structure, people 's concept of food consumption is constantly updated As a high protein soybean food, it is increasingly favored by consumers The refined processing industry of soybean products is quietly rising, which promotes the development of soybean industry and promotes the rigid growth of soybean consumption 。 In recent years, people's demand for meat and egg food is increasing, which greatly promotes the development of poultry and animal husbandry in China As the main ingredient of feed, the consumption of soybean meal is increasing rapidly, which leads to the increasing demand of soybean in China, especially the demand for crushing 4 The price trend of China's soybean market in recent years Looking back on the price trend of China's soybean market in recent years, it can be seen that before 1995, the wholesale price of soybean in the main production area had been running below 2000 yuan / ton In April 1995, the price of soybean rose rapidly, up 450 yuan / ton in a short period of one month, up 28.9% The soybean market was stable in the second half of 1995 At the beginning of 1996, the soybean price rose again, and the wholesale price in the main production area once reached 3150 yuan / ton Therefore, from the beginning of April 1995 to the end of August 1996, in a short period of one and a half years, soybean prices almost rose in a straight line, up 65.8% Since the second half of 1996, soybean market price began to run in the decline channel gradually At the beginning of 1997, the market price of soybean finally stopped falling and stabilized around 2800 yuan / ton As the state has issued several measures to maintain the sustainable development of China's grain production, and under the stimulation of the expected continuous expansion of domestic soybean demand, soybean market price rebounded, starting from 2800 yuan / ton, rising to more than 3000 yuan / ton, once close to 3100 yuan / ton, which is the first strong rebound of soybean market price in the long falling space In the second half of 1997, soybean market price fell again From the perspective of international market, on the one hand, most soybean producing countries and regions have increased soybean planting area correspondingly, and the big soybean producing countries such as the United States and Brazil have achieved historic harvest and soybean supply has increased significantly; on the other hand, due to the gradual and deep development of Asian financial crisis, Japan, the main soybean importing country And the demand of Southeast Asian countries is shrinking sharply, the international market price of soybean is falling again and again, low-cost foreign soybean and its products enter the market of our country like a tide, the supply-demand relationship is unbalanced again, the market price of soybean is dropping continuously from the high price of about 3000 yuan / ton, to the second half of 1999, the market price of Jilin Soybean once fell below 1600 yuan / ton in October, which is the lowest trading price of soybean market In 2000, with the gradual recovery of Southeast Asia's economy and the recovery of Japan's economy, the global economy is gradually developing in a good direction The positive fiscal and monetary policies implemented by the Chinese government to expand domestic demand and curb deflation have played an important role since the Spring Festival in 2000 In less than a month from the end of February to the end of March, the soybean market across the country was booming, with the market price rising from 1800 yuan / ton before the festival to 2400 yuan / ton, or 25% At the beginning of 2000, the main reason for the rise of soybean market price in China was not only the policy factors, but also the production situation in 1999 In 1999, the yield of domestic soybean was low and the quality was poor due to the early frost period, and the content of green soybean reached 20% - 30% In addition, the oil yield of domestic soybean was low, which was much worse than that of imported soybean, so the supply of domestic soybean was difficult to meet the domestic pressing demand, and the gap was very large Since February 2000, the manufacturers have gradually resumed production, and soybean prices have risen rapidly In addition, influenced by the adjustment of national policies, the import of soybean meal and soybean oil has declined sharply, but the demand for soybean meal has increased sharply Driven by this, the orders of manufacturers came in a rush The port price of imported soybeans rose from 2050 yuan / ton to 2450 yuan / ton from April to May The price of soybean meal rose in a straight line The highest price in Shandong Province reached 2500 yuan / ton, and even 2600 yuan / ton in some places in the south, which greatly exceeded the price of imported soybeans Driven by high profits, many manufacturers are keen on imported soybeans, reaching more than 4 million tons of soybeans in July, August and September alone On August 19, the State Administration of Taxation decided to exempt soybean meal from value-added tax With the introduction of this policy, the import of soybean meal increased by 200000-300000 tons overnight, the futures price dropped by more than 200 points, and the rising momentum of spot soybean, soybean meal and soybean oil was restrained With the arrival of imported soybeans, the port soybean began to overstock In late September, the accumulated soybean in ports of Qingdao, Yantai, Tianjin and Dalian was close to 800000 tons The price of imported soybean also fell in a straight line, from 2450 yuan / ton in May to 2030 yuan / ton Although the state issued the document of May 19 on June 10, the oil processing enterprises were eager to cash in soybean meal and soybean oil to extract the spot as soon as possible in order to speed up the capital turnover, so the price of soybean meal and soybean oil also fell sharply with the fall of soybean price The price of soybean meal in Shandong Province dropped from 2500 yuan / ton to the lowest point of 1700 yuan / ton, and the price of soybean oil also dropped from 5200 yuan / ton to 4600 yuan / ton As a result, the enterprises with large soybean orders in the second half of the year are facing great difficulties, and the losses almost engulf the profits in the first half of the year, which is a profound lesson for soybean processing enterprises The first half of 2001 is the first year of the Tenth Five Year Plan and the year of China's accession to the WTO, which will bring new changes and more uncertainties to the soybean market Therefore, it is very important to predict the trend of soybean for the guidance of market trade Looking at the soybean market in the first half of 2001, the overall trend is stable and declining 1 The expectation that a large number of imported soybeans will arrive at the port makes the price of domestic soybeans impacted Since the US 1.7 million tons of soybeans entered the domestic market in March, the imported soybeans will continuously arrive at the coastal ports of China Due to the psychological pressure caused by the expected arrival of imported soybeans, after March, the purchase price of the main soybean producing areas in China has continued to decline The lowest purchase price of soybean in Heilongjiang Province is only 1700 yuan / ton, which leads to the continuous decline of soybean market price "Oil world" predicts that China will import 10.2 million tons of soybeans from October 2000 to September 2001, and believes that if the number of rapeseed imports is less than 2.45 million tons, the import of soybeans may exceed 11 million tons In conclusion, we believe that China's soybean import volume in 2000 / 2001 is about 8 million tons Yantai Port purchased 16804 tons and 56690 tons of soybeans from Argentina on June 26 alone 2 The price of domestic soybeans is close to that of imported soybeans, and the price advantage is not obvious Since the beginning of the year, the purchase price of soybeans in Northeast China has quickly broken through the price of 1820-1840 yuan / ton, and began to surpass the support point of 1900 yuan / ton By the end of January, the purchase price of Heilongjiang soybeans had risen to about 2000-2020 yuan / ton