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    Home > Biochemistry News > Amino Acids Research > Rogers predicts that international oil prices could fall below $100.

    Rogers predicts that international oil prices could fall below $100.

    • Last Update: 2020-07-30
    • Source: Internet
    • Author: User
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    ;

    . Rogers, a well-known investor

    Chinese investors, has spoken again, this time not in China's stock market, but in international oil prices.



    . Under $100! Rogers's prediction was loud.



    . More "optimistic" than Rogers is OPEC Chairman Khalil, who even said that international oil prices could fall to the $70-$80 range as the dollar rebounds.

    .

    the sharp shift in oil prices has never been so closely affected by the nerves of the nation. Oil prices in the first half of the year can only be described as crazy, the acceleration of oil prices, triggered a series of chain reactions - agricultural products, gold prices continue to climb, commodity prices soaring, global inflation intensified . . .

    .

    then, we find that China is experiencing "imported inflation" and then, with its "tight" macro-policy . . .

    .

    so the July 11 U.S. crude oil futures price surge to the peak of $147 a barrel, is the most people would like to see the scene. A month later, on August 11, U.S. crude futures closed at $114.45 a barrel, the fifth straight week of declines. Where exactly will oil prices go in the second half of the year? become the focus of attention on the global economy and all parties.

    the decline in oil prices



    August 11, affected by the strength of the dollar, U.S. crude oil futures continued to fall, the representative price NYMEX September light low sulfur crude oil futures (WTI) fell to around $113 at one point, the end of the day rebounded, settling down 75 cents to $114.45 a barrel. Analysts believe that gasoline demand and a stronger dollar are enough to offset the impact of the border conflict between Russia and neighboring Georgia, the route through the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline, which carries an average of 850,000 barrels of crude oil per day from the Caspian Sea to the Mediterranean.



    . WtI, which had a clear resistance around $150, began a correction, falling more than 21 per cent at one point since hitting $147.27 on July 11.



    . On August 11th the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) secretariat released data showing that the average price of the OPEC market-monitored crude oil package last week was $115.89 a barrel, down $5.98 from the previous week, the fifth straight week of weekly declines. Opec's weekly average oil price hit an all-time high of $138.31 a barrel in the first week of July, and since then the average price has fallen since then, falling by $22.42 a barrel to last week. This is the biggest drop since the current round of oil prices, but how much fall? In recent days, investor Rogers predicted that oil prices could move below $100, and OPEC Chairman Khalil even said that international oil prices could fall to the $70 to $80 range as the dollar rebounds.



    but more experts are clearly less optimistic, arguing that the factors driving the rally in international oil prices have not really eased, and that the recent sharp fall can only be described as a phased adjustment in oil prices, not that the reversal of oil prices has already taken shape. The market is currently looking for a balance of crude oil prices.



    . Li Shanquan, managing director of Oppenheimer Fund in the US, said that despite the fall in oil prices from their highlevel levels, they would remain high in the long run in the long run. The head of the United Nations global economic monitoring department, Hong Jun, believes that international crude oil futures prices will reach a dynamic balance in the $100 to $120 range, high oil prices are detrimental to the world economy, and it is unrealistic to expect oil prices to fall back below $100. Zhu Wei, deputy director of information and marketing department of China Petroleum (601857) and chemical industry association, stressed that the current oil price is a phased adjustment, due to the excess speculation in the early period, so short-term funds profit-taking. Market speculation is short-term behavior, it is impossible to change the energy market supply and demand situation.



    . A number of securities analysts have issued research reports that still look at high oil prices, oil prices will continue to hit new highs, but international crude oil prices in the third and fourth quarters will enter a range of fluctuations in the pattern, roughly the initial judgment of the axis of the axis of $120 / barrel, up and down the range of about 20%.

    four drivers of oil prices



    there are four main factors in the rise in crude oil prices: limited supply growth, a significant increase in demand, a weaker dollar, and capital speculation. Among them, the core reason is the tight balance between crude oil supply and demand.



    . First, supply is still tightening. According to the International Energy Agency, the global crude oil supply and demand gap reached 400,000 barrels in June. And because of years of underinvestment, OPEC now has less than 2m barrels of effective surplus capacity, a seventh of what it was in the 1980s. At present, high-cost oil fields will take two or three years to really have an impact.



    . China Merchants Securities analyst Yu Xiaofeng pointed out that the risk of oil prices continuing to rise mainly lies in the supply side of the problem. The first is that non-OPEC countries have expected lower-than-expected output growth; the second is that the U.S. is in hurricane season, but crude inventories are still at historic lows.



    . Second, demand in developing countries continues to grow strongly. "It's highly irresponsible for the U.S. to be a big oil producer, and the U.S. is selling much more crude oil than China, and it's highly irresponsible to target China," said Glenn Ensor, an international energy expert and chairman of PennWell International. But it is also true that US demand is not growing as fast as China or India. "



    China's January-June data showed domestic consumption of refined oil rose 14.6 per cent, with gasoline up 16.2 per cent. China's consumption of refined oil rose 6.7 per cent for the whole of last year. China's car ownership is still growing at double-digit rates, which has been a major driver of consumption of refined oil.





    again, the impact of the dollar's decline on the soaring oil prices. It should be noted that this round of crude oil price decline is in sync with the U.S. dollar index bottoming out the rebound. "Whether this round of crude oil prices ends with a downturn in the U.S. economy and a sharp drop in consumer demand, or whether inflation continues, and the U.S. enters a rate hike cycle as the core issue," said Liu Yaqin, senior analyst at Medium-Term Futures. Whether raising interest rates or releasing energy reserves, the U.S. has yet to take concrete measures to curb oil prices. This bull market in oil prices is hard to say about in the context of global inflation. "



    finally, short-term funding speculation has caused crude oil and commodity prices to fluctuate sharply. The head of the medium-term futures metals department, Lin Weihui, believes that the recent sharp decline in crude oil prices, mainly by short-term funds. Because the early funds involved in crude oil and agricultural products more, so after the flight of funds, crude oil and agricultural products futures prices fell significantly.



    . Cao Honghui, director of the Financial Markets Research Office of the Institute of Finance of the Academy of Social Sciences, said recently that the recent rapid change in international oil prices exceeded the expectations of many research institutions, the decline was caused by the trading behavior of the crude oil market, a large number of speculative funds profit-taking, nearly 20% of the decline has not been out of the normal adjustment of oil prices.

    oil prices and recession risks



    august 11th, the National Bureau of Statistics released its latest figures showing that the factory price index (PPI) for industrial goods rose 10 per cent year-on-year in July, the highest level since public data were available in 1996. On the same day, the signature article "Correctly view the rapid rise in factory prices of industrial products", Zhang Liqun, a researcher in the Macroeconomic Research Department of the Development Research Center of the State Council, pointed out in the article that there are three main reasons for the joint effect of promoting the increase in PPI, they are resource products such as crude oil, iron ore and other international market prices, domestic demand for steel and other commodities increased rapidly, as well as domestic refined oil and industrial electricity prices. The article specifically mentioned the rise in oil and electricity prices in June, and said that this has an impact on PPI. At this point, the impact of the rise of international crude oil prices on all aspects of the national economy has become more apparent.



    . So can the recent fall in oil prices be considered a run-off for the global commodity bull market? Falling oil prices are widely seen as helping to ease global inflation, while oil prices and share prices have long been seen as a "seesaw relationship" and the collapse in international oil prices is a promising trend for both US and global stock markets.



    . Zhai Xiaofeng believes that the international crude oil price is expected to enter a pattern around the central axis of shock in the third and fourth quarters. The main reasons: first, the supply-side, non-OPEC countries' output growth, the second is the demand level, from the past years, the main developed economies in September and October will have a correction in demand, and third, China may adjust prices again this year, new demand will be affected.





    but Jiang Chao, an analyst at Guotai Junan, points out that his concerns "are the real reason for the collapse in oil prices": in the short term, a fall in global oil prices will help ease the outlook for international and domestic inflation and reduce the likelihood of a central government interest rate rise. But once both the euro zone and Japan start cutting interest rates in the U.S. and Beijing steps up its policies to boost growth, global oil consumption may fall less than expected, providing the impetus for another rebound in oil prices, so that the long-term inflation risk is not significantly eliminated.

    Link International oil price rise cycle review



    so far, looking back at this round of international crude oil prices, you can more clearly divide into three major stages: the first stage from January 2002 to $65 per barrel in September 2005, this is a sustained upward period, there are several waves of adjustment; USD/barrel to January 2007 $54/barrel, which is a period of range volatility, showing a downward-up-fall-fall-fall trend;



    . The average time for oil price adjustments is two and a half months. From the 2002-2006 five-year oil price adjustment, the high point occurred 4 times in August, 1 at the end of October, each time from the high to the low adjustment time is short is 1 and a half months, a long period of 5 months, the average time adjustment range of 2 and a half months. The minimum adjustment was 16 per cent, the largest adjustment was 35 per cent and the average adjustment was 23 per cent.



    . Rogers, a familiar investor in China' stock market, has spoken again, this time not about China's stock market, but about international oil prices.



    . Under $100! Rogers's prediction was loud.



    . More "optimistic" than Rogers is OPEC Chairman Khalil, who even said that international oil prices could fall to the $70-$80 range as the dollar rebounds.

    .

    the sharp shift in oil prices has never been so closely affected by the nerves of the nation. Oil prices in the first half of the year can only be described as crazy, the acceleration of oil prices, triggered a series of chain reactions - agricultural products, gold prices continue to climb, commodity prices soaring, global inflation intensified . . .

    .

    then, we find that China is experiencing "imported inflation" and then, with its "tight" macro-policy . . .

    .

    so the July 11 U.S. crude oil futures price surge to the peak of $147 a barrel, is the most people would like to see the scene. A month later, on August 11, U.S. crude futures closed at $114.45 a barrel, the fifth straight week of declines. Where exactly will oil prices go in the second half of the year? become the focus of attention on the global economy and all parties.

    the decline in oil prices



    August 11, affected by the strength of the dollar, U.S. crude oil futures continued to fall, the representative price NYMEX September light low sulfur crude oil futures (WTI) fell to around $113 at one point, the end of the day rebounded, settling down 75 cents to $114.45 a barrel. Analysts believe that gasoline demand and a stronger dollar are enough to offset the impact of the border conflict between Russia and neighboring Georgia, the route through the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline, which carries an average of 850,000 barrels of crude oil per day from the Caspian Sea to the Mediterranean.



    . WtI, which had a clear resistance around $150, began a correction, falling more than 21 per cent at one point since hitting $147.27 on July 11.



    . On August 11th the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) secretariat released data showing that the average price of the OPEC market-monitored crude oil package last week was $115.89 a barrel, down $5.98 from the previous week, the fifth straight week of weekly declines. Opec's weekly average oil price hit an all-time high of $138.31 a barrel in the first week of July, and since then the average price has fallen since then, falling by $22.42 a barrel to last week. This is the biggest drop since the current round of oil prices, but how much fall? In recent days, investor Rogers predicted that oil prices could move below $100, and OPEC Chairman Khalil even said that international oil prices could fall to the $70 to $80 range as the dollar rebounds.



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