Securities analysts unscramble 4 + 7: price reduction does not make money? Do you think pharmaceutical companies are stupid?

According to Tian Jianqiang, senior vice president of CITIC Securities, chief analyst of the pharmaceutical industry, and Xu Jiaxi, general manager of health and consumption research center of Societe Generale Securities and chief analyst of the pharmaceutical industry, this paper sorted out that the "4 + 7" volume purchase was finally won by 16 listed companies, and the related targets of entecavir and clopidogrel were finally removed by listed companies After the final result comes out, the market reaction is strong, which can be seen from the performance of pharmaceutical stocks in the secondary market It has been four days since the pre winning result was announced on December 6 The "negative" sentiment in the market is still spreading and the pharmaceutical sector is still exploring So, is this reaction to the market really reasonable? And does this result really catch companies by surprise? Do generic companies really come to the "threshold of life and death"? On December 9, e-medicine managers participated in a media communication meeting on the theme of "what is the impact of centralized procurement on the profits and development of the pharmaceutical industry" At the meeting, two chief analysts of the pharmaceutical industry from CITIC Securities and Societe Generale Securities had their own views on various market guesses and doubts 1 "Self provided dry food" from the perspective of winning enterprises, winning varieties generally occupy the market share or cost advantage For example, Huahai Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd and Jingxin Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd., which win relatively more bids, have the common characteristics of API based enterprises, and the selected varieties are either supplied to other pharmaceutical enterprises as raw materials, or supplied to overseas markets in the form of pharmaceutical export As the raw material pharmaceutical enterprises, the quality of drugs can be guaranteed, at the same time, the cost side is the most obvious advantage But even so, after the results come out, the trend of pharmaceutical plate in recent days is still the following decline Market concerns have not been eased The main reason is that there are some extreme decline in the winning products For the average drop of 52%, the cost rate of generic companies is generally between 40% and 60% In short, through this volume purchase, the enterprise's sales expense and management expense may be significantly saved At the same time, because the medical insurance bureau has set up a series of relatively convenient conditions, such as the advance payment of medical insurance funds, the enterprise's capital pressure will be greatly relieved On the whole, the price reduction will affect the long-term development of the enterprise At the same time, for the enterprise itself, many enterprises are the integration of raw materials and themselves, and they have the basis of production capacity and equipment, and this centralized purchase does not need to separate the cost But this time, it did not increase the cost of facilities and equipment and the fixed capital allocation Basically, the enterprises have the guarantee of API They all bring their own dry grain to participate in the competition The cost is relatively stable and the risk is easy to control In addition, it is understood that some enterprises have bought raw materials with the upstream at a more favorable price than usual before participating in the bidding On the one hand, it can be seen that enterprises attach great importance to and actively participate in the volume purchasing On the other hand, it confirms the saying: "better buy than sell" On the economic account, enterprises are more clear and meticulous than anyone else In addition, there are a number of enterprises that have won the bid but whose price reduction is significantly higher than expected, as well as a group of enterprises that have not been included in the list of centralized purchase, but whose main business is high-end generic drugs, relatively high profit margin and market expectation that they may be affected in the future, which are also bearish in the secondary market But in fact, from the proportion of 25 products finally selected this time No matter in the whole pharmaceutical industry or for hospitals, the proportion of commonly used drugs is not very large The share of these 11 cities in China's consumer market will not be as exaggerated as the market reaction Therefore, the impact of the current period is relatively limited, and there are still many ways for enterprises to hedge against price falls In addition, in the supporting documents of Shanghai, 50% of the hospital's advance payment is mentioned, which directly refers to the key point In the past, hospitals were in a relatively strong position in the whole industrial chain, so the phenomenon that hospitals defaulted on the payment of commercial enterprises and industrial enterprises would be more serious If the corresponding prepayment work can be implemented, it is a short-term hedging way for both commercial enterprises and industries In the long run, the competent department will also implement this plan according to the comprehensive consideration of social and economic benefits With the cold in the stock market these two days, some affected enterprises have taken a series of measures to convey confidence to the capital market and stabilize the stock price The most representative is that China Bio Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd has increased its holdings of 30 million shares through the Hong Kong stock market on Friday, with a cumulative increase of more than 160 million Hong Kong dollars 2 Follow the trend and strive for progress in stability In fact, this event has realized with volume procurement in a real sense Compared with the unified procurement mentioned in the original basic drug system, this time, no matter from the drop of drug price or the guarantee of quality, it has achieved significant improvement From the perspective of analysts, the direction of pharmaceutical enterprises towards innovation in the future will not change in the medium and long term, and the procurement will be accelerated due to this cost Many pharmaceutical companies began to reflect on this volume purchase, and may avoid the accumulation of generic drugs in future R & D investment At the same time of reducing the R & D expenditure, we will invest limited resources in the R & D of innovative drugs In addition, it may also promote enterprises to build their own product and channel positions through other non patented ways, such as some large Indian pharmaceutical enterprises, which do not have their own original research drugs, but through expanding their own channels, they have achieved the internationalization of products and even achieved a considerable market In the past few years, there have been many unreasonable phenomena in the use of medical insurance funds For a long time, it is an inevitable trend to optimize the reform of medical insurance funds and to realize the transformation from cage to bird So in the future, if innovative drugs can enter health care faster, the payment environment is also expected to be greatly optimized The pressure of the short-term capital market and the pressure felt by enterprises sometimes become a driving force for the healthy development of the industry in the long term For example, "722 self-examination", before that, there were more and more irregular clinical experimental data in China Many enterprises have a fluke mentality of "no responsibility for the law", but in the "722" clinical verification, after a large number of non-standard products were eliminated, the response in the capital market at that time was also relatively large, and the performance of the secondary market was once very low But now, to some extent, "722" has opened the history of standardized research and development of innovative drugs in China Including the Consistence Evaluation and other policies later, they all caused great shock So for the evaluation of many things, at that time, the market did not necessarily see very clearly, many policies and events were lagging behind From the perspective of individual enterprises and individual varieties, the price reduction is unexpected and may have an impact on the current profits But for the generic pharmaceutical enterprises, it will force the pharmaceutical enterprises that do not pay attention to research and development to transform and innovate or develop more development ideas For example, we should make some high-quality and high barrier brand generic drugs, including drug and device complexes and so on The pharmaceutical industry has always been an industry that the state attaches great importance to, and this industry has also experienced a lot of policy baptism Sanming medical reform, two vote system, clinical self-examination.. In a round of norms, ultimately promoted the healthy development of the industry, and ultimately left in the waves, the most will be those enterprises that attach great importance to R & D and innovation.