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LME aluminum fell slightly on Tuesday, and as of 15:00 Beijing time, 3-month Lun aluminum was reported at $1610.
5 / ton, down 0.
15%
on a daily basis.
The main 2008 contract of Shanghai aluminum rose in shock, with the highest 13845 yuan / ton and the lowest 13755 yuan / ton within the day, closing at 13830 yuan / ton, up 0.
40% from the closing price of the previous trading day; The trading volume was 91061 lots, an increase of 8713 lots per day; The position was 165,200 lots, an increase of 5,296 lots
per day.
basis 340 yuan/ton; The price difference of Shanghai aluminum in 2008-2009 was 185 yuan / ton
.
Market Focus: (1) The U.
S.
Department of Commerce indicated that it has revoked special and relevant treatment for Hong Kong, including the suspension of export license exemptions, and is conducting an ongoing and differential treatment assessment
.
Spot analysis: On June 30, spot A00 aluminum reported 14150-14190 yuan / ton, the average price was 14170 yuan / ton, a daily increase of 80 yuan / ton
.
A large account received nearly 20,000 tons of goods in East and South China within the day, and the transaction activity between traders was relatively general, the shipments of cargo holders were relatively active, and the trading of buyers and sellers was flat
.
Downstream intraday on-demand goods are mainly received, due to the sharp rise in prices, the willingness to buy goods is not high
.
Warehouse receipt inventory: Shanghai aluminum warehouse receipts totaled 89,827 tons on Tuesday, a daily decrease of 577 tons, a drop of 9 consecutive days; On June 29, LME aluminum stocks were 1,648,000 tons, or 4,025 tons
per day.
Main positions: the top 20 long positions of Shanghai aluminum main 2008 contract are 99116 lots, a daily increase of 1797 lots, short positions 119216 lots, a daily increase of 4117 lots, a net short position of 20100 lots, a daily increase of 2320 lots, long and short increases, net short increases
.
Market research and judgment: On June 29, the main force of Shanghai aluminum rose sharply in 2008
.
The announcement by the United States of the cancellation of Hong Kong's special treatment, coupled with the second outbreak of the new crown epidemic, has increased risk aversion in the market and boosted the US dollar index; At the same time, the aluminum import window continues to open, and the supply of imported sources increases; In addition, the profit recovery of electrolytic aluminum production has stimulated the gradual recovery of domestic electrolytic aluminum production, putting pressure
on aluminum prices.
However, domestic downstream demand continues to perform strongly, driving Shanghai aluminum inventories to continue to degrade, short-term supply tightness continues, aluminum prices still have upward momentum
.
In terms of spot, a large household received nearly 20,000 tons of goods in East and South China within the day, and the transaction activity between traders was relatively general, the cargo holders shipped relatively actively, and the downstream received goods on demand during the day
.
Technically, the main 2008 contract of Shanghai aluminum increased its position, and the mainstream bulls increased their positions more, and it is expected that the short-term volatility is strong
.
In operation, it is recommended that the Shanghai aluminum 2008 contract can be long around 13800 yuan / ton, and the stop loss is 13720 yuan / ton
.
