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The consumption of this variety of lemon in the Chinese herbal medicine market is not large, mainly edible
.
After experiencing a sky-high price of 150 yuan in 2013, the lemon market has been running in a sluggish manner
.
Recently affected by the epidemic, domestic demand has soared, prices have risen, can the market continue to rise in the future?
In this issue, the big data platform of Tiandi Cloud Map Chinese Medicine Industry analyzes the market of this variety based on production and sales data
.
First, the lemon market moves
Bozhou market: the former futures source purchase and sales rapidly, the market rose, when the price of lemon slices rose to 60-65 yuan (kilogram price, the same below), in recent days due to high prices, demand decreased, the market began to decline
.
At present, the market supply is generally moving, the price of lemon slices in the market is about 40 yuan, and the price of some selected goods is around 70 yuan
.
Anguo market: the demand for lemons in the early stage is large, the supply is smooth, and the market rises significantly; Recently, merchants' purchase efforts have weakened, the source of goods has been slow to sell, the price has declined, and the current market lemon slices are priced at 35-45 yuan
due to varying quality.
Yulin market: In December 2022, lemons were affected by the epidemic, and the market rose significantly, but in recent days, as the purchase efforts of merchants weakened, the source of goods gradually declined, and the price has fallen, and the current market asking price is about 35 yuan, and the selection price is 40-45 yuan
。
Second, the increase in social demand is obvious, and prices have risen sharply in the short term
Chart: Lemon Market Price Trend from 2018 to 2022 (RMB/kg)
The historical high price of lemons appeared in 2013-2014, when due to the reduction of lemon production in the United States, the price rose sharply, resulting in an increase in domestic exports, the domestic market reached a record high of 150 yuan, and the following year because the production did not decrease, the market fell sharply back to around
35 yuan.
In 2016 and 2017, due to the frost of fruit trees during the lemon fruit setting period before the new production, the fruit set rate was lower than in previous years, and the output was lower than the normal year for two consecutive years, resulting in a rise in the market, and the price of lemon slices in the market rose to about 60 yuan
.
In the following years, due to the large production, the market fell back to 30 yuan, and the lowest market fell to 18 yuan in May 2020, after which the price gradually recovered, but still operated
in the low price range.
In December 2022, after the change of domestic epidemic prevention and control policies, the demand for proprietary Chinese medicines, Chinese medicinal materials and health care products for cough and asthma and nourishing the lungs soared, and the demand for lemons for both medicine and food grew rapidly, and the price once skyrocketed to more than
60 yuan 。
Third, the domestic production areas are relatively concentrated and the global popularity is not high
Lemons are native to Spain, the Netherlands, Italy, France and the Mediterranean coast in Europe, and are distributed on a large scale in South Africa, the United States, India, Malaysia and South America; Domestic lemon production areas are mainly distributed in Anyue, Sichuan, Dehong, Yunnan, Chongqing Wanzhou, Tongnan, Hainan and other places, and Guangdong, Hunan, Fujian, Zhejiang and other places are also planted
.
Among them, Anyue County, Ziyang City, Sichuan Province is the hometown of lemons in China and one of the main lemon commodity production base counties, accounting for more than
80% of the total domestic output.
However, Anyue lemon is affected by lemon raw materials in international markets such as the United States, Italy, India, Argentina, South Africa and Taiwan, and its global popularity and influence are limited
.
In February 2022, the main producing areas in China were affected by low temperatures, and some lemons suffered frost, resulting in a possible reduction of more than
10% in September 2023.
According to the statistics of the big data platform of Tiandi Cloud Map Traditional Chinese Medicine Industry, the output of lemons (fresh products) in 2021 will be about 103.
48 tons, and the output of lemons (fresh products) in 2022 will be about
869,000 tons 。
Fourth, the global use is huge, and the development of varieties is still in its infancy
Lemon has the effect of relieving heat and appetizing, clearing heat and phlegm, and the consumption of flower tea products has increased significantly in recent years; At the same time, because it is rich in vitamin C, sugar, calcium, phosphorus, iron, vitamin B1, vitamin B2, niacinic acid quinic acid, citric acid, malic acid, hesperidin, naringin, coumarin, high potassium and low sodium and other trace elements and minerals, it is also one of
the fruits loved by the global public.
Domestic lemon raw material consumption is mainly concentrated in the two major sectors of medicinal channels and edible channels, of which edible channels account for more than 85%, mainly divided into four major sectors: citric acid extraction, beverage addition, flower tea and ingredients, and the consumption growth has been the most significant
in the past 20 years.
According to the statistics of the big data platform of Tiandi Cloud Atlas Traditional Chinese Medicine Industry, the amount of lemon used in 2021 was 712,000 tons, but the demand for lemons in China in 2022 was 894,000 tons, and there was a certain gap between supply and demand
.
5.
Prediction of the future market
1.
The variety consumption mode is single, and the industrial structure is seriously lagging behind Domestic lemon consumption is mainly based on fresh fruits and dried flakes, of which fresh fruit consumption accounts for the highest proportion, while the consumption of dried flakes is far less than fresh fruit
.
Domestic lemon product line processing is still in its infancy, deep processing and fine processing methods still need to be developed, and the industrial structure is seriously lagging behind to continue to improve
.
At present, the people's consumption of lemons is still mainly based on vitamin supplementation, and its health care product consumption, dietary therapy consumption and other channels have obvious growth potential
.
2.
Channel consumption is narrow, and the surge in production capacity is highlighted In 2013, stimulated by high prices, the enthusiasm of all participants was high, and lemon production ushered in rapid growth
.
With the continuous improvement of production capacity, the narrow situation of lemon consumption channels is prominent, which is the fundamental reason why
its market has continued to fluctuate at a low level in recent years.
To sum up, from 2021 to 2022, the global lemon yield decreased to varying degrees due to the influence of La Niña climate, but due to its large land area and long harvest year, the overall decline in production capacity was not obvious, resulting in the market continuing to operate
at a low level.
Although under the influence of the new crown epidemic, lemon consumption ushered in a slight increase, but because its market is easily affected by the global market, single consumption mode, coupled with abundant social inventory, lemon has insufficient room for further growth, so the lemon market is likely to enter a downward channel
in the later stage.
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