Soybean meal corn soared feed prices rose and were passed on to farmers

On October 21st, the price of soybean meal contracts in the domestic futures market rose again, breaking a near two-year high.
, the price of the main corn futures contract 2101 also broke through 2600 yuan / ton at one point, the highest since the contract went on sale in September 2004.
, cotton, wheat and other agricultural prices have also recently shown a strong upward trend.
Yonghui, an analyst at Sogou.com, told the Securities Times that the recent sharp rise in agricultural prices has been linked to strong downstream demand.
the sharp increase in the cost of feed products, feed products prices also increased significantly, coupled with increased sales, so feed enterprises profit level is ok.
, however, in the current context of the sharp decline in pig prices, high cost pressures have hit farmers.
prices of various agricultural products rose in the third quarter, soybean meal in feed raw materials showed a strong upward momentum.
, according to Zhuo Tsung statistics, after the National Day holiday, domestic soybean meal futures jumped high open, a one-day rise of 185 yuan / ton, up 6.01%, a new high for the year.
as of October 19, the average domestic soybean meal price was 3,284 yuan/tonne, up 131 yuan/tonne, or 4.15 percent, from 3,153 yuan/tonne last year.
also as feed raw materials accounted for a larger variety, corn prices this year is almost a unilateral upward trend.
prices have risen more than 40 per cent since January.
" since October, the southern market corn prices rose 100 yuan to 170 yuan / ton before the holiday, the new season corn market prices do not fall back up, the production area of new grain market is not fast, the downstream supply is tight, tight supply pattern pushed up the corn market price.
, as of October 16, corn prices nationwide closed at 2,386.5 yuan per ton, up 5.74 percent month-on-month and 31.36 percent year-on-year, according to monitoring. chen Qingqing, an analyst at
ZhuoTron, said that the objective aspects of the production area due to downs, precipitation and other impact on harvest progress, as well as subjective aspects by traders and deep processing manufacturers to buy positive impact, the pace of new grain market listing is slow, strengthening the tight supply situation in the market.
from the point of view of the sales area, this year the main domestic corn production area price front is stable, the northeast grain remains high, pulling up the grain sources in other areas.
also affected by tight supply, domestic soybean prices have soared this year.
Business Association analyst Li Bing said that domestic soybean prices have been rising since March, September domestic soybean prices have been as high as 2.6 yuan / catty, in October this year soybean scale price 2.1 yuan / catty, compared with the previous 1.8 yuan / catty, has risen 0.3 yuan / catty.
due to the relatively small number of soybeans on the market in the new quarter, the end-procurement enthusiasm is higher, domestic soybean prices continue to rise, reaching about 2.2 yuan / catty.
demand to help feed prices soybean meal, corn and other feed main raw materials prices up, and downstream demand surge is not unrelated.
,000-year-old analyst, said the biggest drop in pig production capacity in the Northeast since August 3, 2018 was about 60 percent.
in March 2019 retail and large-scale farms began to try to resume production, but the success rate is not high, until the end of the year there is still a recurrence of local outbreaks.
2020 to date, the northeast non-plague epidemic has been effectively controlled, the speed of production capacity recovery accelerated, so far the overall pig storage volume has been restored to about 70% before the non-plague, local areas reached 80% to 90%, the scale of the recovery rate faster than retail.
relatively slow in the south, with most recovering less than 50 per cent.
statistics, since September, the release of pig production capacity in the domestic market accelerated, ZhuoZheng monitoring in September, large-scale enterprises in the north of the pig out of the column increased by 34.93 percent month-on-month, in October still showed a positive growth trend.
the southern market since October, the number of pig out of the column began to increase rapidly, in October, the southern large-scale enterprise pig out of the column increased by 22.52% month-on-month.
experienced low prices in May, June-July domestic pig prices high deadlock, the enthusiasm for secondary fertilization is high, fattening households to grasp the market to make up the column enthusiasm significantly increased.
most fattening households fill the column commodity pig in 70 kg to 90 kg, the intention to out of the column weight is 140 kg to 150 kg, September to October just for the secondary fattening out of the column time node.
the rapid development of secondary fattening pig sources is another major factor leading to increased market supply.
the main reason for the rise in soybean meal market, on the one hand, from the cost side of the United States soybean futures continue to rise, on the other hand, domestic demand-side data also showed bright.
, an analyst at China Feed Industry Association, said domestic feed production data had been on the rise for five consecutive months.
total domestic feed production as of September 2020 was 24.4 million tons, an increase of 6.2% month-on-month and 18.1% year-on-year.
" at present, the average price of domestic pig out of the column has basically fallen below 30 yuan / kg, pig grain ratio also showed a rapid decline, currently less than 13:1 level.
" Feng Yonghui said, as an important measure of the profitability of pig farming, pig grain ratio is the ratio of pig prices to corn prices as the main feed for pigs.
pig price and corn price ratio is at 6:1, pig farming is basically at break-even point.
the ratio of pig grain, the better the breeding profit, and the worse.
" is currently self-breeding under the circumstances of the profit of the pig in 1000 yuan, the current pig price has basically fallen to the cost line of fattening.
" ZhuoTron data show that after entering October, domestic pig prices fell rapidly, the last two days of a partial slight rebound.
as of October 19, the average price of the three yuan outside the country was 30.12 yuan/kg, down 3.16 yuan/kg from the beginning of the month, a decrease of 9.50%.
Ma Liyuan believes that the scale of the fourth quarter out of the column plan to increase significantly, demand and rise is not timely, the fourth quarter of 2020 Northeast market supply and demand or gradually balanced, the probability of price down is greater, to the end of the Northeast pig price lowest or fell to about 24 yuan / kg.
Wang Weiwen also said that the price of raw corn and soybean meal continued to rise, making downstream farming costs continue to increase, feed enterprises feel the pressure and have taken the seventh price increase this year.
Because of the pig and can breed sow column increased, while the amount of large meat-eating chicken seedlings continued to rise year-on-year, suppressing pig prices and broiler prices have gone down, a rise and fall, the end-breeding profits are depressed.
feed enterprises looking for alternatives with the rise in corn prices, downstream feed enterprises began to actively inquire about the purchase of alternatives, with Chen rice and Chen wheat with the highest attention.
Chen Qingqing said, Hunan Chen rice out of the stock price of 1750 yuan / ton, early because of the downstream feed enterprises on the new season corn market after the stage bearish expectations, but also by Chen rice quality instability and other factors, the intention of enterprises to purchase Chen rice in general, and with the continued rise in corn prices, manufacturers gradually favor Chen rice.
October 21st, at a press conference held by the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs on the economic situation in the agricultural and rural areas in the first three quarters of 2020, Wei Baigang, chief economist of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, said that recently, due to the rise in corn prices, to a certain extent, there have been cases of enterprises buying wheat for feed.
From experience, wheat prices are the "ceiling" of corn prices, wheat feeding increases will inhibit corn prices, corn prices will encourage feed enterprises to reduce the use of wheat, so in the long run, wheat instead of corn is unlikely.
there still room for ups and downs after the corn price broke through the previous high?" Previously, corn prices in 2 yuan to 2.1 yuan / kg lasted for a long time, but at present, many places corn average price has reached 2.5 yuan / kg, from the historical high of 2.8 yuan / kg has not far.
," Feng Yonghui said, in the short term, the current market demand continues to be strong, corn prices still have room to go up, but breaking the previous record is still a small probability event.
Chen Qingqing also believes that from the spot price point of view, the price of corn in the Northeast region is at the highest level, supporting the price of corn in other producing areas, the production area price front is more stable.
comprehensive price comparison, the current domestic corn production area price lows are basically in the northwest region, some large feed plants have entered the production area to buy, low-cost regional corn prices have continued to upward trend.
In the short term, the production area slowly overlay downstream feed enterprises to replenish the library, the production area is difficult to find low-cost source breakthrough, corn prices are still high consolidation, but under the current price, Chen rice and Chen wheat on the alternative role of corn has emerged, with corn prices to form a containment, the current southern market corn prices basically reached a stage high.