Soybean meal market or experience a new wave of decline

Introduction:MXein the last two weeks, soybean meal 1401 contract narrow volatility, the financial side of the market is not willing to interveneMXe
From the downstream demand point of view, the aquaculture industry continues to recover, this week the national average price of pigs continued to rise, lean pork prices from 13.6 yuan / kg to about 14.1 yuan / kg, although the year-on-year is still low, but the recovery momentum is rapidThe average national piglet price rebounded to 23.73 yuan/kg from 22.4 yuan/kg last week, down 25.89 percent year-on-yearThe national pig price rose to 3.98:1 this week from 3.76:1 last week, down 9.89 percent from a year earlierThe ratio of pig grain to 5.92:1 rose from 5.52:1 last week, down 2.24% year-on-year and basically unchanged from the same period last yearThe national pig farming industry is about to return to the break-even point above, and thanks to the recent high price of soybean meal weakened, the profits of breeding have been effectively protectedThe main reason why the aquaculture industry can rebound rapidly is the storage of frozen pork in the early part of the country, which has effectively adjusted the supply and demand structure in the market, which has led to a certain degree of rebound in the aquaculture industryHowever, in the long term, it still cannot change the background of the period of cyclical decline-depression in the aquaculture industry, and it is expected that the May pig stock data, due next week, will fall further, which will have a huge impact on the marketMXe
At the same time, we should note that as of June 14, China's soybean arrival volume is expected to be 3.07 million tons, and in June the full month of soybeanarrival is expected to reach 7.25 million tons, the next two weeks China's imports of soybeans will further increase, which will form a significant supply pressure on the market, the previous speculation of reduced imports, soybean meal supply theme with the slow easing of soybean shipments in BrazilChina's soybean port stocks are currently about 5.89 million tons, although nearly 1 million tons less than the same period last year, but the pressure to port is expected to increase the port inventoryMXe
From a technical point of view, the last two weeks soybean meal 1301 contract around the five-day line and the 10-day line run, the market has a clear breakthrough weak situation, and the weekly line in a long shadow after the emergence of a clear long shadow, indicating that the market is in a short-term wandering, and from the nearly seven trading days of the funds in the trend, the funds face the current market investment will not be very goodIt is expected that this situation will most likely continue next week MXe for downstream demand enterprises, is still to take the buy-to-let procurement model, do not need to carry out too much stock, but it is important to note that at the beginning of the third quarter, often ushered in the beginning of the recovery of the soybean meal market, so in the end of the second quarter of the next few weeks, you can start to gradually prepare funds, in the futures market for a long time to prepare for the recovery of soybean demand MXe
For oil mills, the short-term market trend will begin to be grim, with inventories in hand must be hedged in the futures market to counter the pressure on prices of the USDA's gloomy report MXe
For medium- and long-term investors, the first-line light position can be shorted next week with a back to 3220, and a stop loss of 3250 In the long run, at the end of July, the price is likely to experience a new wave of downward decline, with a target of 3000 below the line MXe Introduction: MXe In the last two weeks, the soybean meal 1401 contract has been weak and the financial side is not willing to intervene in the market MXe
From the downstream demand point of view, the aquaculture industry continues to recover, this week the national average price of pigs continued to rise, lean pork prices from 13.6 yuan / kg to about 14.1 yuan / kg, although the year-on-year is still low, but the recovery momentum is rapid The average national piglet price rebounded to 23.73 yuan/kg from 22.4 yuan/kg last week, down 25.89 percent year-on-year The national pig price rose to 3.98:1 this week from 3.76:1 last week, down 9.89 percent from a year earlier The ratio of pig grain to 5.92:1 rose from 5.52:1 last week, down 2.24% year-on-year and basically unchanged from the same period last year The national pig farming industry is about to return to the break-even point above, and thanks to the recent high price of soybean meal weakened, the profits of breeding have been effectively protected The main reason why the aquaculture industry can rebound rapidly is the storage of frozen pork in the early part of the country, which has effectively adjusted the supply and demand structure in the market, which has led to a certain degree of rebound in the aquaculture industry However, in the long term, it still cannot change the background of the period of cyclical decline-depression in the aquaculture industry, and it is expected that the May pig stock data, due next week, will fall further, which will have a huge impact on the market MXe
At the same time, we should note that as of June 14, China's soybean arrival volume is expected to be 3.07 million tons, and in June the full month of soybeanarrival is expected to reach 7.25 million tons, the next two weeks China's imports of soybeans will further increase, which will form a significant supply pressure on the market, the previous speculation of reduced imports, soybean meal supply theme with the slow easing of soybean shipments in Brazil China's soybean port stocks are currently about 5.89 million tons, although nearly 1 million tons less than the same period last year, but the pressure to port is expected to increase the port inventory MXe
From a technical point of view, the last two weeks soybean meal 1301 contract around the five-day line and the 10-day line run, the market has a clear breakthrough weak situation, and the weekly line in a long shadow after the emergence of a clear long shadow, indicating that the market is in a short-term wandering, and from the nearly seven trading days of the funds in the trend, the funds face the current market investment will not be very good It is expected that this situation will most likely continue next week MXe for downstream demand enterprises, is still to take the buy-to-let procurement model, do not need to carry out too much stock, but it is important to note that at the beginning of the third quarter, often ushered in the beginning of the recovery of the soybean meal market, so in the end of the second quarter of the next few weeks, you can start to gradually prepare funds, in the futures market for a long time to prepare for the recovery of soybean demand MXe
For oil mills, the short-term market trend will begin to be grim, with inventories in hand must be hedged in the futures market to counter the pressure on prices of the USDA's gloomy report MXe
For medium- and long-term investors, the first-line light position can be shorted next week with a back to 3220, and a stop loss of 3250 In the long run, at the end of July, the price is likely to experience a new wave of downward decline, with a target of 3000 below the line MXe