Soybean meal rebound has begun

Introduction: since July, the domestic soybean meal price has begun to get rid of the previous downturn and keep rising At present, the highest price of soybean meal in Shandong has exceeded 2000 yuan / ton, reaching 2050 yuan / ton, creating the highest price of soybean meal in Shandong this year The price of soybean meal in Guangdong has also increased to 2000 yuan / ton, and that in Jiangsu is 1980 yuan / ton This round of strong rebound of soybean meal market has attracted the general attention of market dealers and relevant departments According to the analysis, the main reasons for the recent sharp rise in domestic soybean meal prices are: first, the rise in the price of imported soybeans and the improvement of domestic soybean meal demand Due to the sharp rise of soybean price in CBOT market, it is expected that the number of imported soybean arrivals in August may be reduced, which will further tighten the already tense soybean supply However, many insiders said that there is little room for further price increase of soybean meal, because the pressure of soybean oil import may increase in the near future Recently, it was reported that China may face another shortage of soybean supply at the end of August, because the price of domestic soybean products is still catching up, trying to catch up with the increase of Chicago period price, so as to recover the squeezed profits China hasn't finalised any soybean import deals in the past few days, as weather has pushed CBOT soybean prices to their highest level in four years, but many refineries still need to buy soybeans around September Therefore, the increasing cost of imported soybeans drives the market price of soybean meal up Second, the soybean meal inventory is less in the early stage Due to the early analysis that a large number of imported soybeans will arrive in June, the traders and feed factories of oil plants all over the country operate cautiously with less inventory In addition, some oil plants are in a state of shutdown and supply less in the summer overhaul season Before the start of soybean meal price, there are also a large number of oil plants selling goods, which makes the shortage of soybean meal more serious during this period 3 Demand driven 1 In the previous period, the domestic breeding industry declined greatly, and the price of meat continued to fall The farms and farmers basically operated at a loss By July, the market price of meat began to rise In most areas, the price of pork was 5% - 10% higher than that in May, which led to the rise of pig price, thus stimulating the enthusiasm of the breeding industry and increasing the demand for feed and soybean meal The soybean meal supply of some oil plants in Jiangsu and Shandong has been in hot sale in varying degrees, and the spot soybean meal supply of some oil plants has been insufficient 2 Soybean supply is relatively insufficient As the price of meal rises, oil mills are excited, and some oil mills that have stopped production or not enough processing begin to look for soybean oil But just at this time, the domestic soybean inventory in Northeast China has been consumed a lot, and the imported soybean is relatively insufficient, which makes the purchase of raw materials difficult When the soybean supplier finds the market changes, the price will be raised, and the situation will be further aggravated, resulting in the situation of soybean meal and soybean mutual support 3 The price of rapeseed meal supports the price of soybean meal In this year's domestic rapeseed harvest season, affected by severe weather conditions, China's rapeseed production has been greatly reduced, and the relevant departments are expected to reduce the production by about 30% Affected by this, the purchase price of domestic rapeseed has increased significantly In Jiangsu, Anhui and other regions, the purchase price of rapeseed has reached a maximum of 2180 yuan / ton, which is still at the level of 2060 yuan / ton, resulting in oil factories all over the country With the increase of production cost, the sales price of rapeseed meal has increased At present, the sales price of rapeseed meal in Jiangsu Province is 1030 yuan / ton The high price of rapeseed meal has played a good supporting role in the price of soybean meal 4 When the price of grain and meal is low, farmers use their own grain or self prepared feed to maintain their livestock When the price of soybean meal begins to rise, farmers turn to purchase feed instead of ingredients, which makes the sales volume of feed factory expand and drives the demand of soybean meal 5 The psychology of buying up and not buying down is reflected again Recently, some feed factories worry about the increase of meal price, which increases the storage of raw materials, thus undermining the original relatively fragile balance of supply and demand After finding that the supply of soybean meal is less, it triggered a panic in the market, thus promoting the price of soybean meal to rise After the price rise, under the psychological effect of buying up and not buying down, the rise effect has further expanded To sum up, the author believes that the factors supporting the price rise of soybean meal will continue to play a role in the future period Therefore, the price of soybean meal and even soybean will continue to rise in the short term, but the following factors are worth noting in the later period 1 The price rise of imported soybeans is a foregone conclusion Recently, the price of soybeans on the outside market has been rising steadily On July 18, the price of CBOT soybeans futures in the United States closed at $5.77/bushel in August On July 19, the price of soybeans from the United States to China rose to about $256 / ton The price of soybeans from South America to China also rose to $250 / ton, although the price of imported soybeans arriving in the near future will not reach this level (the price of soybeans arriving in the near future is at 2200) However, it is inevitable that the cost of soybean import will rise in the later period, which will undoubtedly continue to increase the cost of soybean meal for domestic oil plants 2 Domestic soybean meal demand is expected to continue to improve After July, the production of domestic aquaculture and aquaculture industry has entered the peak season, and the demand for feed is expected to further increase Recently, the sales volume of soybean meal in domestic oil plants has increased to varying degrees, which has been proved If Japan, Europe and other major poultry sales regions in China cancel the restrictions on the export of poultry in the near future, the demand for soybean meal in China's breeding industry will gradually increase in the later period To become better Third, the amount of soybean imports in the later period Although the imported soybeans are relatively insufficient at present, according to the relevant data, although the price of imported soybeans in Hong Kong keeps rising due to the high price of the international soybeans market, which makes the industry recover the import of soybeans, and the expectation of the market price falling is greatly reduced Although the demand of domestic soybeans is large at present, due to the high price of imported soybeans, it is difficult to say the profit space of purchase, so it is very difficult to say Many enterprises are reluctant to import soybeans, so the price of soybeans in China can be kept at a high level However, the supply of soybeans in China is basically tight From June to mid July, the number of imported soybeans reached 1.74 million tons, but at the same time, the supply of domestic soybeans dried up This supply still has a certain gap for the demand of domestic soybeans, and most of the imported soybeans are concentrated in the production of domestic large oil processing enterprises for their own use, with little market share Therefore, it is still difficult for domestic small and medium-sized oil plants to resume production Domestic soybeans The supply of meal is restricted to some extent Therefore, the amount of domestic soybean imports in the later period will directly affect the market price trend of soybean meal Fourth, soybean oil prices are unlikely to rise substantially The selling prices of soybean oil and soybean meal are closely related In recent years, the selling prices of soybean oil in Heilongjiang Province have dropped after a substantial increase At present, the selling prices of local soybean oil are generally 5000-5200 yuan / ton, and that of Shandong Province is 5000 yuan / ton This rising price of soybean oil has a certain pressure on the price of soybean meal However, after China's accession to the world trade organization, it has fulfilled its commitment to issue 2.52 million tons of soybean oil import quota If the domestic soybean oil price rises substantially, these imported soybean oil will become reality According to the statistics of relevant departments, since July 20, more than 200000 tons of crude soybean oil will be imported to Hong Kong, 90% of which are Argentine soybean oil, 100000 tons of South American soybean oil and 20000 tons of American soybean oil will be imported in August, plus a small amount of imports in June In the near future, 400000 tons of soybean oil will be imported to China, and the inflow of these soybean oil into the market will play a very good role in stabilizing the domestic soybean oil price Therefore, the Domestic soybean oil prices are unlikely to rise significantly After considering the supply of soybean meal, we should also take into account the demand generated by the traditional domestic breeding industry entering the peak season in September Of course, this is the most difficult factor to count and predict in terms of quantity However, generally speaking, it can be roughly judged that the price of domestic soybean meal will continue to rise in the short term, and then if the price gap between domestic and foreign countries expands, the price of soybean meal will also be stable It is expected that after September, with the harvest of domestic soybeans, the price of domestic soybean meal is likely to show a certain degree of correction.