Summary of the 2003 winter wheat information exchange meeting of Zhengshang Institute

Introduction: the head of Hubei Provincial Department of Agriculture recently revealed the situation of wheat planting area and seedling situation in 2003 / 2004 Jbz Henan Provincial Agricultural dispatching team: during this year's wheat sowing, due to the continuous rainy weather in Henan Province, the wheat sowing date was postponed for 7-10 days However, due to the rapid rise in spot wheat prices in October, the wheat planting area in the province increased According to statistics, up to now, 72.7 million mu of wheat has been planted in Henan Province, an increase of 700000 Mu over last year, an increase of 1% year on year, including 300000 mu in Xinyang area While the total area of wheat planting increased, the proportion of high-quality wheat continued to rise significantly In 2003 / 2004, the sown area of high-quality wheat in Henan Province was 26 million mu, an increase of 3 million mu compared with last year, and the proportion increased from 32% last year to 36% From the current situation of wheat growth, the emergence of wheat seedlings is poor, tillering is less, and wheat seedlings are weak Compared with last year, the number of tillers decreased from 4-5 to 1-2 However, from October to November this year, the accumulated temperature is low, which is not conducive to wheat overwintering Jbz Henan Academy of Agricultural Sciences: according to the survey, the wheat sowing date in 2003 / 2004 in the south of Henan Province was postponed for 5-10 days, and in the north for 7-15 days The wheat sowing date in the whole province was relatively concentrated, and the proportion of sowing before October 20 was 70% - 80% By the end of November, the overall growth of wheat in Henan was close to that in October last year At present, the winter period of wheat is coming, and the growth of wheat has entered the stage of long root and long leaf, which will be mainly vegetative growth Due to the bad weather conditions in the early stage, insufficient accumulated temperature, slow growth of wheat and poor development of root system, the yield of next year will be affected At the same time, this year's late crop wheat ratio is significant, while the late crop wheat is greatly affected by weather factors, and its later development is faster, and its yield is not stable The key to wheat growth is whether there is cold winter or cold weather in late spring in China JbZ Xinxiang Grain Bureau: at present, Xinxiang has been determined as a high-quality wheat base city by the relevant departments of the state This year, the planting area of high-quality wheat in this city is 3 million 220 thousand mu, mainly including Yumai 34 The wheat sowing date in Xinxiang City was generally postponed for about 7 days Before the end of November, all wheat sowing work in Xinxiang City was completed, which was basically normal compared with previous years This year, the city's wheat planting speed is fast and the quality is high The wheat planting area has increased by about 50000 mu, to 4.39 million mu Although the weather conditions around the end of October delayed wheat sowing in Xinxiang City, there were also favorable aspects, such as good moisture in the early stage, less water for wheat farmers, reducing the cost of wheat planting; good weather in the later stage, making wheat seedling better At the same time, in view of the delay of sowing date, the city has increased the wheat sowing amount At present, although the wheat tillers are less, the single plant development is better Under the normal weather conditions in the later period, the wheat yield next year will not be affected by the delay of sowing date Jbz Hebei grain and oil group: in recent years, due to the continuous increase in the planting area of cash crops and the increase in the reserved area of cotton fields under the influence of the increase in cotton prices in all parts of the province this year, the wheat planting area in Hebei Province decreased from 31 million mu in 2003 / 04 to 32 million mu last year, with a maximum of 42 million mu This year, the area of excellent wheat in Hebei Province increased slightly to 13.5 million mu, including 300000 mu in Artemisia Jbz Xingtai Grain Bureau: affected by the weather and the rising cotton price, the sown area of wheat decreased to 4.7 million mu in 2003 / 2004, a decrease of 9% - 10%, the lowest level since the 1980s, and the sown time of wheat in Xingtai was generally delayed by 10-15 days However, the area of Yumai increased by 300000-500000 mu, to 1.8-2 million mu, and last year it was 1.5 million mu Yumai 34, 8901 and Gaoyou 9415 were the main varieties From the overall situation, the emergence rate of wheat is low, 93%, and the annual average value is 97% At present, 35% of the first class seedlings, 17% of the second class seedlings and 48% of the third class seedlings JbZ Hengshui Grain Bureau: as the local farmers generally increase cotton and reduce wheat, the wheat planting area in the city is reduced by 400 thousand mu, to 3 million 300 thousand mu In addition, the local wheat sowing is timely, and the sowing date is advanced in some areas, so the wheat sowing quality is high The sown area of high-quality wheat is 1.83 million mu, with an increase of 330000 mu The main varieties are 8901, Baidong 2 and Jinan 17 The emergence of seedlings is generally good Jbz Jining Grain Bureau: the annual wheat output in Jining accounts for 1% of the total wheat output in China and 10% of the total wheat output in Shandong Province This year, the wheat planting area in Shandong Province has decreased, among which Jining City has the largest decline The wheat planting area in this city is 4 million mu, compared with 4.648 million mu last year The excellent wheat area of the city accounts for 40% of the total wheat planting area, which is 1.6 million mu, of which the order agriculture is 400000 mu At present, the emergence and growth of wheat is normal, and the overall level is good It is estimated that the wheat yield per unit area will be normal next year Jbz Dezhou Grain Bureau: this year, the wheat planting area decreased slightly, to 3.74 million mu, last year to 4 million mu, and the sowing date was delayed There are about 1.5 million mu of superior wheat flour, and Baidong 2 is the main variety The emergence of wheat is close to the average level of previous years Jbz wheat spot market supply and demand, purchase and sale, price changes jbz Henan Agricultural dispatching team: an investigation of the wholesale prices of 105 grain and oil markets in Henan Province shows that the wheat prices in Henan Province have increased since June this year, while they have been at a low level in the same period of previous years In terms of the price of wheat flour, it has been relatively stable for many years This year, the figure shows an increase of more than 50 degrees At the same time, after September every year, the price of corn fluctuated lower, but this year it accelerated The same is true for soybeans and soybean meal On the whole, at present, the prices of agricultural products are on the rise, while the prices of cotton, corn and livestock products are on the rise in the near future, which will play a driving role in wheat prices For the reasons of wheat price rising, from the perspective of policy, the Chinese government has always advocated to increase farmers' income, strengthen the adjustment of agricultural structure, increase the area of cash crops and decrease the area of grain and oil, which have promoted wheat price rising; in the international market, the supply of agricultural products is tight and the price is rising, which has a pulling effect on wheat price in the domestic market; the impact of the trend of related agricultural products, agricultural means of production As well as the chain reaction and rise of the prices of corn, edible oil, cotton and other agricultural products, the butterfly effect has been formed in the agricultural products market, and the wheat price is normal to keep up with the rise; at the same time, the reduction of autumn grain production makes the wheat farmers and grain enterprises reluctant to sell, the wheat dealers hoard the wheat and raise the wheat price, the reduction of grain inventory and the existence of production and demand gap aggravate people's reluctance to sell, and the wheat production and sales areas are small The imbalance of wheat supply and demand and the postponement of wheat sowing in 2003 / 2004 make the market expect that wheat price will rise On the whole, the situation of grain production in China is not optimistic, and the grain inventory continues to decline The number of provinces (cities) with grain production and demand gaps in China has increased from 14 in 1998 to 17 in 2002 The food supply in the developed coastal areas in the East and the poor areas in the West will be tight According to the survey, in 2003, the sown area of grain crops sown in autumn and winter decreased by 1.4% compared with that of the previous year, in which wheat decreased by 1.6%, and the areas with large reduction were Hubei, Jiangsu, Hunan and Guangdong This year, the area of grain crops sown in autumn and winter in Henan province continued to decrease, and the area of rapeseed, cotton, sparse vegetables and other varieties increased In addition, in 2002, compared with 1998, China's grain planting area decreased by 148 million mu in four years, with an average annual decrease of 37 million mu In 2003, the grain production reduction in Henan Province reached 15.2%, with the increase of summer grain and the decrease of autumn grain The total grain production reduction was the highest since the founding of the people's Republic of China According to jbz survey, from January to November, the wholesale price index of wheat, grain and oil market in Henan Province was 108.3, while the corn price index was 115.2 and the soybean price index was 129.6 In addition, from January to August, the national wheat price index was 103.6 In contrast, wheat prices have not risen much, and the rise since October is normal At present, the market trading volume of corn, rice and other agricultural products in China is relatively small, with a large year-on-year decrease In recent years, the general situation of grain market in Henan Province is that the price is high and the quantity is small Due to the shortage of grain source and high price of grain, the water content and quality of listed grain and oil varieties are large, the market risk is increased, and the market transaction is relatively light, among which the wheat transaction is whether there is a price or not In the later stage, it is expected that wheat prices will stabilize at a high level and further rise to an appropriate level What investors need to pay attention to is that in the near future, our government attaches great importance to food production and safety, and local governments at all levels have also taken practical measures to help farmers develop production In the later stage, as long as we do a good job in field management and pest control, then next year's wheat output is expected to be the same as this year's In addition, up to now, the proportion of wheat production in Henan Province has increased from 18.9% in 1998 to 24.9% in 2002 The change of wheat market in Henan Province has important reference value Jbz Xinxiang Grain Bureau: at present, the stock of commodity grain in this city has declined In late November, the price of wheat in the city increased slightly due to the increase of wheat price in the period and the current price of wheat in the surrounding areas In addition, as the state-owned grain enterprises have started to implement the policy of financial non subsidy in the purchase of new wheat this year, the phenomenon of fast purchase, fast sales and small inventory has appeared in the wheat market Next year, the grain and oil market in Henan Province will be fully market-oriented, and the clearance verification and audit will promote the reduction of wheat rotation output and the increase of stock replenishment In recent years, the selling price of common wheat in Xinxiang district is 1.40 yuan / kg, and the grain enterprises have a small stock out The market is expected that the wheat price will rise sharply again in the later period is unlikely, and the market will see a climax of wheat farmers' grain sales before the Spring Festival Jbz Hebei grain and oil group: at present, the wheat price has entered the middle price area (1200-1500 yuan / ton is the middle price area) In late November, the rise of wheat price in Hebei Province has a great relationship with the local stock replenishment Jbz Hengshui and Xingtai grain Bureaus: at the end of November, the situation in the wheat markets of the two cities was "farmers are bullish and do not sell grain, grain enterprises are reluctant to sell and do not open their warehouses, users are busy buying grain, and wheat prices are rising day by day" In the near future, the ex warehouse price of local wheat is about 1.44 yuan / ton, with small trading volume, which is expected to rise to about 1.50 yuan / kg later Jbz Dezhou and Jining grain Bureaus: at present, the ex warehouse price of common wheat in Shandong Province is 1.36-1.38 yuan / kg, and the ex warehouse volume is small Wheat purchases and inventories are expected to decline in the two cities next year due to the elimination of inventory subsidies The market is expected that the wheat market may have centralized sales in the later period, and the wheat price will be mainly stable and rising JbZ