The Academy of Social Sciences released a blue book on real estate, predicting a rebound in housing prices in hot cities

China Paint Network
:
Real Estate Blue Book: China Real Estate Development Report No. 12 (2015) was released yesterday at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences. The report shows that in 2014 commercial housing sales area of 12. 100 million square meters, down 7 from 2013. 6%, down 2% from 2013. 49 percent, commercial housing for sale area has reached 6. 2.2 billion square meters, a record high. The Blue Book predicts that the average price growth rate of commercial housing in 2015 will be the same as in 2014 or higher than in 2014, depending on the policy and its implementation, the possibility of house price increases in 2015 is likely, but the likelihood of a sharp increase is unlikely. The overall downturn in the real estate market in 2014
The Blue Book points out that in 2014 the world economy was in a post-crisis recovery period, the year China's real estate market has seen a relatively large change and adjustment, overall in a depressed state, mainly reflected in a significant decline in sales area, area for sale increased, some large and medium-sized cities housing prices fell, real estate development enterprises lack confidence, real estate investment, new construction area, land acquisition area and other indicators of growth than in 2013. 2014 commercial housing sales area of 12. 100 million square meters, down 7 from 2013. 6%, down 2% from 2013. 49 percent, commercial housing for sale area has reached 6. 2.2 billion square meters, a record high. In 2014, the average transaction price of commercial housing nationwide was 6324 yuan/m2, an increase of 1% year-on-year. 4%, down 6% from 2013. 3 percentage points. In 2014, the national real estate development investment 9. 5 trillion yuan, up 10 percent year-on-year. 5%, down 9% from 2013. 3 percentage point, the slowest pace since 1998. In terms of policy, in 2014 the central government's real estate policy control from the past "control of housing prices, curb demand" to "promote improvement, steady consumption" aspects, relative to the central government's regulatory policy of stability, local policies are more positive, according to the specific circumstances of the local "city-based policy", flexibility, more targeted. The real estate policy issued by the central government in 2014 is mainly related to the establishment of long-term real estate mechanism, such as real estate registration system. Overall, the problems in China's real estate market in 2014 include both the outstanding problems of the current year and the problems that have been existing for a long time. First, the overall supply of the real estate market exceeds demand, commercial housing for sale area reached a record high. Second, the allocation structure of housing and land resources is unreasonable, and market risks are prominent in some areas. Third, the transaction cost of second-hand housing is too high, curbing the release of improved housing demand. Fourth, after the construction of affordable housing problems appear, some of the affordable housing appeared vacant. House price growth this year is flat or higher than last year
the Blue Book argues that in 2015 the central government supported the development of the real estate market in policy, replacing "suppression, speculation and regulation" with "stability, support and promotion". First, financial policies are relatively loose, such as "930", "5 to 2" and so on will continue to implement and refine. Second, pay more attention to the construction of long-term mechanism, administrative means gradually diluted, such as the "Provisional Regulations on Real Estate Registration" to continue to implement. Third, inventory has become one of the important objectives of the policy, it is expected that local governments will introduce operational government buy-back of commercial housing as a guaranteed housing policy and rules. Fourth, the collective management and construction land into the market pilot. Fifth, the autonomy of local government regulation and control is increased. In terms of market expectations, the real estate market in 2015 was generally better than in 2014. Real estate development investment growth in 2015 is still likely to continue to grow at a low rate, the supply of commercial housing is relatively adequate, commercial housing demand or slightly increased. At the national level in 2015 to "support residents' autonomy and improve the demand for affordable housing", local governments in order to reduce the inventory of commercial housing will also introduce certain support policies, while financial and fiscal policies are also conducive to housing consumption. For this year's housing price trend, the Blue Book forecasts that the average price growth rate of commercial housing is the same as in 2014 or higher than in 2014, the extent of the increase depends on the policy and its implementation. There is a possibility of a rise in house prices in 2015, but a sharp rise is unlikely. First-tier cities or some hot second-tier cities housing prices have a warming trend, poor population aggregation capacity of some second-tier cities or third-tier cities housing prices may continue to fall or correction trend. Data showing changes in home sales prices in 70 large and medium-sized cities in March 2015 show that the month-on-month data have begun to stabilize.
experts argue that "the downturn" is better than expected in 2013
although the Blue Book's summary of last year's real estate market and most people feel the same - overall in the doldrums, but industry experts have different views.
Zhu Zhongyi, former vice president of the China Real Estate Association, said that 2014 and 2013 are certainly depressed, real estate development investment growth declined in 2014, sales area, new construction area, land sales area decreased year-on-year, because of 2013 There are irrational factors in the market in 2013, some indicators are better than expected, so caused the year-on-year decline in 2014, "if we look objectively, with the new normal, ordinary heart to analyze, I think the market in 2014 is generally stable." "It's true that 2014 was down sharply from 2013, but overall sales were good, 12. 0.6 billion, second only to 13 in 2013. 0.6 billion, 100 million difference. Commercial housing sales overall is still good. Wang Yulin, chairman of the China Real Estate Resources Commission, said the situation was well reflected after some new policies were introduced in the first four months of this year. Wang said that the main problem of the current real estate market is the problem of confidence and the stock is too large, the general surplus is not affecting an industry, but affecting the investment of related industries are afraid to enter. "So we need to solve the current problems, improve confidence, so that the healthy development of the industry." According to Li Yang, vice president of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, China's real estate market has not yet fully experienced a cycle, "a cycle needs to go through crises, depressions, recovery, prosperity and other formal economic cycle stages, so that China's real estate is now likely to complete the process of this cycle." Li Yang said that after going through this stage, China's real estate market has gone through a full cycle, and then on this basis will further develop, ushering in a healthier real estate market.