The central bank cut interest rates again is said to be good for the first and second-tier urban property market.

China Paint Network
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the central bank announced on the 25th to cut interest rates, so far, from the end of November 2014 the current round of interest rate cuts, there have been five interest rate cuts 4 times, million yuan mortgage interest will save nearly 200,000 yuan, and housing enterprises will further reduce the cost of financing. Industry insiders said that under the impact of the rate cut, the "golden nine silver ten" trading volume is expected to climb again, and the first and second-tier city property market will obviously benefit. Five interest rate cuts million mortgage interest savings of nearly 200,000 yuan reporter calculated that the loan benchmark interest rate was reduced by 0.25 percentage points, which means that the mortgage rate of more than 5 years continues to decline. If according to the last mortgage rate, that is, the Interest Rate of 5.40% on June 28, then the 20-year, equivalent interest of 1 million yuan mortgage plan, the monthly supply of 6823 yuan. If the current mortgage policy, that is, to reduce the interest rate by 0.25 percentage points to 5.15 percent, then under the same conditions the monthly supply of 6683 yuan. In this case, the interest rate cut will reduce the monthly supply pressure on home buyers by 140 yuan. At present, the path of interest rate cuts has been fully opened, the level of interest rates in first-tier cities has been close to the lowest level since 2009. According to the current round of interest rate cuts, which began at the end of November 2014, buyers who have cut interest rates five times have reduced their interest rates by as much as 193,000 yuan over 20 years based on the benchmark interest rate. Industry insiders also believe that after the reduction, banks will increase the amount of loans, for home buyers, the first home interest rate discount will be significantly increased. "At present, the first-home loan discount in the first-tier cities is around 90%, there is a possibility of 8.5 percent or 8 percent discount in the future. For homebuyers, this direct credit stimulus has a big impact. Zhang Dawei, chief analyst at Zhongyuan Real Estate, said. Industry: "Double drop" will stimulate the demand for housing release full of red market research senior manager Zhou Feng said, just announced the interest rate cut will continue to reduce the pressure of monthly supply families, "will attract customers who are still in the hesitancy stage but intend to buy a house to speed up the market, while forcing a group of deposit customers to withdraw money from the bank to spend, stimulate domestic demand." "And Weiye I love my home group vice president Hu Jingxuan analysis, said that the interest rate cut brought about by increased liquidity and lower financing costs, will undoubtedly indirectly benefit the current property market, especially into August slightly tired real estate market will play a stimulating role, "Golden Nine Silver Ten" trading volume is expected to climb again, and the full-year property market turnover or a three-year high. For homebuyers, improved home buyers will be the most beneficial to this year's New Deal and four rate cuts. This "double-down" will stimulate the continued release of demand for improved home purchases. Zhang Dawei believes that the property market, especially the first- and second-tier cities of the property market will meet the gold nine silver ten. Although this policy is not entirely aimed at the property market, but in the current market situation, first- and second-tier cities buyers are most directly affected. However, Zhou Feng, a senior manager at Mantang Hong Market Research, worries about how long the stimulus effect on the property market can last, depending on the co-operation of local policies. In cities with strict restrictions on purchases, the impact of interest rate cuts on the property market is still relatively limited, perhaps not as good as that one or two rate cuts at the beginning of this year. Hu Jingxuan believes that in the current inventory-based tone of the market background, the rebound in trading volume will not trigger a sharp rise in house prices, housing prices will be relatively stable. Capital markets: real estate stocks will have a double support yesterday, real estate stocks with the market. Tonghuashun data show that the real estate development sector fell 9.43 percent, in addition to Huaxia happiness rose more than 6 percent, Sunshine City shares were flat, 110 real estate development enterprises fell across the board, of which more than 100 stocks fell. And this cut in interest rates, for real estate stocks will bring obvious benefits. From the past market reaction, real estate and bank stocks, like the most capital-focused industries, for real estate stocks, the accumulation of positive policies will lead to a sustained recovery of fundamentals, with both fundamentals and policy support. Yan Yuejin, director of research at the Think Tank Center of the Easy House Institute, said the policy of cutting rates and cutting interest rates would certainly stimulate the stock market. For real estate stocks, gold nine silver ten sales will rise, and house prices are still expected to rise, so real estate stocks will usher in a stronger rebound than other stocks. Second-hand buildings: investors transfer funds to invest in real estate professionals think that the impact is mainly reflected in the psychological, the actual impact will not be obvious: "Because similar policies have been out several times, just to provide the owners with a reason for price increases, in the short term will not be directly reflected in property prices and turnover." "In fact, before yesterday's "double drop", because of the recent stock market turmoil, the market has seen investors transfer funds, investment in real estate for property preservation appreciation, intermediaries revealed that the last week more than nearly 30% of the property visitors than before, including small and medium-sized business owners. At the same time, some owners began to return prices, some buyers fret: "A week ago and a week later the bid is completely different." "Trend: second-hand property market also want to increase prices slightly in the market for the trend of the property market views are different. In The view of Mr. Zhong, the people who can enter the property market have already entered the market, but the people who can't enter the property market are basically deeply in the stock market. He believes that even if the property market is judged to be stable people, but also because the economic environment is really not optimistic and worry about their "buy expensive": "because we all know that even if the policy is relaxed, developers are still selling houses at a lower price." "The latest data provided by him show that from August 1 to 24, the number of second-hand residential sales facilitated by Mantang Hong Real Estate increased slightly by 1% over the same period in July, and the city's average price was RMB21,061/m2, down 0.7% from the same period in July. "It's expected to start making specials in mid-September," he said. "In the remaining four months of this year, the number of first-hand residential net sign-ups in the city's 12 districts is estimated to be around 8000 units per month. There's not much room for concessions, but by mid-September, there will be a rush to make specials. Data show that the average number of second-hand buildings in Guangzhou in the first quarter is 5595 sets, the average number of sets per month in the second quarter is 8596 sets, Zhou Feng expected the third quarter of 8100 units / month, the fourth quarter of 8000 sets / month. But he doesn't think there will be a sell-off in the market, because the house is still a relatively safe place to invest. "The traditional peak season is coming, there is no 'double down', the property market will continue to rise, second-hand property transactions will rise." Zhu Huaqing, a researcher at Sohu.com, told reporters that in the second week of August (8.10-8.16), the city of Guangzhou through the intermediary to promote the second-hand housing network sign a total of 1074 cases (including the nature of ordinary residential and villa), a slight increase of 6.23% month-on-month. In the third week of August (8.17-8.23), a total of 1,217 second-hand housing net signings (including signed, delivered and closed) were brokered by agents in Guangzhou, up 13.31% from the same period last week. "The price estimate is a slight increase." He believes that the current market for a year or two property prices will not fall sharply there is a "consensus": "When it becomes a 'consensus' that is, the vast majority of people have such expectations, property prices will be difficult to fall, especially in guangzhou, because most of the houses in Guangzhou are 'retail' holdings." Buyers say prices are too expensive and outrageous, he says, but consciously believe they will rise in the future. Investment advice:
long-term investment along the subway search house Guangzhou second-hand e-commerce business circle manager Yuan Weiwei believes that the current housing prices in the short term difficult to have a big rise, so to choose to invest in real estate, it is best to invest in long-term investment is appropriate: "If you want to buy a house investment, it is best to buy the best location of the highest quality community housing, appreciation of the space is relatively large." He suggested choosing favorable sectors such as Zhangzhou and Chigang: "Zhangzhou will have large e-commerce, the sector will increase the number of employment, whether renting or buying a house demand will increase significantly, Chigang plate near Zhangzhou, can absorb the surge in demand for housing in Zhangzhou." "As for the early years into the investment of sought-after apartments, Yuan Weiwei is not too optimistic, think that the property rights of apartments only 50 years, even if rented, investment returns are limited, and second-hand property market apartments difficult to sell. Zhai Zhenning, manager of the second-hand e-commerce business circle in Guangzhou, believes that most of the areas with the highest house prices in Guangzhou are the old town, and that there is limited room for the appreciation of house prices in the old town: "Buyers who come to the old town to buy a house themselves need some time to accept the prices in the old town, and the possibility of a big increase in the old town is very small." He suggested choosing a new urban area with lower housing prices, especially panyu elevator building: "Panyu building prices are low, transportation support is relatively lagging behind, the future subway line open, make up this 'short board', the community supporting panyu elevator building will be very popular in the market." Zhou Feng, on the other hand, stressed that investment should be preferred along the subway line, and did not rule out that some owners who did not understand the market opened low prices. The foreign exchange market affected the central bank's double-down RMB exchange rate under pressure commodity currencies rebounded on the 25th, the central bank announced a rate cut, affected by this news, the offshore RMB against the U.S. dollar expanded the decline, from the central bank announced the rate cut of 6.4708 depreciation of more than 200 points to 6.4915. On the currency markets, the U.S. dollar fell again and again, the U.S. dollar index fell for three consecutive weeks, is now near 94, the euro, the yen benefited from the recent shock to the market as a safe-haven currency, but the Asia-Pacific stock market gradually stabilized, commodity prices stopped plummeting, commodity currencies rebounded. On the 25th, the dollar rose 125 basis points to 6.3987 against the yuan. The euro rose 1,345 basis points to 7.3989. Liu Dongliang, a senior analyst at China Merchants Bank's Interbank Finance Department, said the central bank is expected to gradually ease its intervention in the exchange rate and allow the yuan to depreciate further without extreme fluctuations. The dollar's "suffering" commodity currency rally has been weighed down by international financial market shocks and heighter fears of a global economic slowdown that threaten to disrupt the Federal Reserve's plans to start raising interest rates soon. However, the offshore yuan extended its decline against the dollar, with the dollar index recovering to 94 at one point, as the central bank cut interest rates yesterday. Commodity prices stopped plunging, commodity currencies rebounded across the board, the Australian dollar rose more than 1 per cent against the US dollar to recover most of yesterday's losses, New Zealand rose more than 1 per cent against the US dollar and the US dollar edged down 0.3 per cent against the Canadian dollar. But the euro and yen retreated, with the dollar rising more than 1 per cent against the yen, which fell nearly 3 per cent at one point on Monday, and the euro recovering slightly against the dollar. As of yesterday's press release, the euro was around 1.1477 against the dollar and 120.04 against the yen. The long-term trend of dollar strength unchanged Liu Dongliang pointed out that the impact of the dollar rate hike cycle on emerging markets is the root cause of the current turmoil, regardless of whether the Federal Reserve will eventually delay raising interest rates, as long as this expectation exists, then the pressure on capital outflows from emerging markets will not stop. Liu Dongliang believes that the impact of the lifting of spreads, the dollar index fell sharply in the short term, the euro, yen and other strong rebound, but this should only be technical changes. In the medium term, the Fed's expectations of interest rate hikes create a backdrop for a stronger dollar, which is also expected to be pushed back by rising risk aversion in global markets.