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On March 10, the overall operation of commodities fluctuated, and the Wenhua Commodity Index finally closed down 0.
84%
.
【Core thinking】
【Core core thinking】For polypropylene, consider the following:
The overall performance of polypropylene in the chemical sector is still relatively prominent
.
addition
There is no obvious contradiction in the fundamentals of polypropylene, which shows that although the upstream inventory is currently at a high point in the same period in history, with the rigid demand brought about by the resumption of work downstream, the overall inventory reduction situation is relatively stable, and it is expected that the inventory will continue to continue.
Positive feedback
.
In addition, although the epidemic has affected demand and the recovery of the start-up load is slow, the rigid demand is still there.
In addition, if the price falls, it will trigger speculative demand, and the downstream elasticity of polyolefins is relatively large, which cannot be ignored
.
Then, the current futures price has reached a high position of 7145, and the chemical sector is strong, and on the premise that there are no obvious contradictions in the fundamentals, the Korean epidemic and the Lotte incident have caused concerns, the cost support of the propylene end, and the substantial increase in masks may be its influence.
factor
.
The explosion occurred in Lotte, South Korea, but according to our calculations, the impact on the domestic supply of polypropylene and propylene is not very big.
At present, it is still mainly emotional fermentation.
Propylene itself is also the supply side of Donghua Energy’s parking lot.
Demand has recovered.
go stronger
.
At present, the futures will fluctuate greatly due to the impact of macro events such as the epidemic.
Therefore, it is recommended to do it based on the upper and lower safety margins.
If the upper and lower marginal import cost line is around 7150, appropriate short-selling operations can be carried out.
It remains to be seen how the current bullish factors will ferment Observation, you can consider raising the upper margin to go short
.
【 Focus: The basis is obviously stronger? 】
【 Focus: The basis is obviously stronger? 】At present, the futures basis has strengthened significantly, and it has reached -50 today, mainly due to the following reasons:
The upstream has a strong willingness to support prices recently, which has a certain supporting effect on prices
.
In the market, traders are willing to buy low-priced goods due to their selling and buying behaviors, making transactions with stronger basis, and some risk-free arbitrage opportunities
.
Although the speculative demand in the downstream has decreased, there is still rigid demand for purchases, and the positive feedback of the overall inventory has been realized
.
