The first day of Anhui / Henan pig survey

< br / >As the largest animal husbandry variety in the world and the largest agricultural variety in China, the listing of pig futures will provide effective risk management tools for pig breeding enterprises in China and help the development of agriculture in China< br / > hqq < br / >At the initial stage of pig futures listing, the futures price may fluctuate significantly under the influence of spotIn this context, in June, niuqian.com organized a survey in Henan and surrounding provinces, the benchmark of pig futuresIn this survey, led by Professor Xu Qingsong, a senior expert in pig industry, we will coordinate the research on the diversity of ecological points (including feed enterprises, distributors, large and medium-sized farms, pig purchasers, butchers, white bar wholesalers, frozen meat importers), so as to facilitate the mutual correction of various informationAnd what's the industry's view on the future? Let's go deep into the benchmark and intensive areas of pig futures to find out the answer, and provide some basis for predicting the later market< br / > hqq < br / > survey summary < br / > hqq < br / > < br / > 1At present, we dare not blindly transfer the price, because 16 yuan / kg, the terminal market basically maintains a break even lineTherefore, it will take time for the price to fluctuate, waiting for the consumption to recover, and the busy farming will also be conducive to pork consumptionWe are optimistic about the spot price in the next few months< br / > hqq < br / > < br / > 2When production decides to sell, it will sell according to the plan, and will not press the market because of the marketThe monthly sales will be 50000, and the annual sales may reach about one time of the original base, reaching about 100000< br / > hqq < br / >< br / > hqq < br / > < br / > survey time: June 8 < br / > hqq < br / > < br / > survey location: Hefei area < br / > hqq < br / > < br / > survey object: breeding enterprise, feed enterprise, pig dealer < br / > hqq < br / > hqq < br / > first stop: enterprise a < br / > hqq < br / >< br / > hqq < br / > < br / > hqq < br / > < br / > HQ < br / > < br / > HQ < br / > < br / > before African swine fever, the sales volume outside the province was 85%, and the main area was in the Yangtze River Delta The province accounts for about 15% After African classical swine fever, 100% of it is supplied to the province < br / > hqq < br / > < br / > policy and measures: the country will deepen rural reform and restore pig production Compaction of "rice bags" under the responsibility of the governor and "vegetable basket" under the responsibility of the mayor Therefore, the national policy will play a great role in guiding the production and operation of enterprises to a large extent For example, a series of measures at the transport level are very helpful to enterprises From 2018, encourage local sales and guarantee supply < br / > hqq < br / > < br / > re breeding: it is expected that by the end of 2020, the company's pig stocks will return to the normal level before African swine fever < br / > hqq < br / > < br / > new production expansion: up to the first quarter, the total number of live pigs in Anhui Province was 14.144 million, and that of fertile sows was 1.079 million Large scale aquaculture enterprises account for 50-60%, and the rest are small and medium-sized enterprises and retail investors < br / > hqq < br / > < br / > the scale of foster care households is 300, 500 and 10000, and the mainstream scale is about 1000 Different regions have different scales < br / > hqq < br / > < br / > weight and ratio of male to female: in the past few years, the weight of pig on the market was lighter, 245 Jin was a large weight, and now the normal weight is about 250-260 Jin The whole market weight pattern is slowly changing, and now it can basically sell to about 280-290 Jin But because of the last panic price drop and the hot weather, there are not many 300-400 Jin < br / > hqq < br / > < br / > boars are the basic ones to be put out of the market Sows should be kept as far as possible, and sows should meet various requirements < br / > hqq < br / > < br / > settlement method: downstream customers are mainly pig dealers, slaughterhouses and chain stores, etc because of the large demand for funds, they are all cash settlement Customers pay first and then deliver goods It's the same in the industry Pay today and pick up the pig tomorrow, according to the needs of customers < br / > hqq < br / > < br / > Listing trend: production decides to sell, and sales will be carried out according to the plan, not because of the market The monthly listing is 50000, and the listing at the end of the year may reach about one time of the original base, reaching about 100000 < br / > hqq < br / > < br / > epidemic prevention and biological control: the company has invested a lot in biosafety, whether in hardware or software, so the future market has great confidence in the prevention and control of African swine fever < br / > hqq < br / > < br / > hqq < br / > < br / > cost and loss: the company invested in epidemic prevention of African swine fever, resulting in a cost increase of about 50-60% The loss of breeding is about 5%, the number of dead heads is about 5 < br / > hqq < br / > < br / > hqq < br / > < br / > sales mode: when African swine fever broke out in 2018, the price fell to the bottom, but 95% of the company was contracted and sold according to the plan without pricing < br / > hqq < br / > Therefore, it will take time for the price to fluctuate, waiting for the consumption to recover, and the busy farming will also be conducive to pork consumption We are optimistic about the spot price in the next few months < br / > hqq < br / > second stop: enterprise B < br / > hqq < br / > < br / > stock situation: enterprise a stock: 600000-650000, enterprise B Stock: 300000, enterprise C Stock: 280000, while the company's current stock of pigs is about 100000, about 50% less than before the epidemic The company expects to recover to 150000 in September and 200000 in October, About 300000-350000 in the first half of this year < br / > HQ < br / > Every month, there are 3000 heads, two yuan and three yuan The normal birth rate is about 10 heads, and the delivery rate is 92% < br / > hqq < br / > Self check once in 4 days and handle once a day If fever is found, dispose of it directly < br / > hqq < br / > < br / > new production capacity and sow stock: there are GP field and PS field newly built The company builds 3-4 pig farms every month, with 600-1200 sows in each pig factory and 30 in September < br / > hqq < br / > Before African swine fever, there were 20000 sows Now there are 17000 sows, 5000 sows for three yuan and 12000 sows for two yuan < br / > hqq < br / > < br / > feed sales: the company's feed export is about 10% before African swine fever This is mainly because many small farmers withdraw permanently Now feed is for self use According to 289 days, the market is sold at 260 Jin, with a normal production weight of 240-260 Jin Therefore, in cooperation, the cost and risk are shared < br / > hqq < br / > The sows will be eliminated after 8 pregnancies The elimination price of 4-year replacement cycle is the same as that of 3 yuan sows + 300-800 yuan < br / > hqq < br / > < br / > hqq < br / > < br / > breeding cost: average 7.5 yuan / Jin < br / > hqq < br / > < br / > self breeding: 5.7-6.5 yuan / Jin < br / > hqq < br / > < br / > farmer cooperation: 7.2-7.5 yuan / Jin < br / > hqq < br / > < br / > substitution: 12-13 yuan / Jin < br / > hqq < br / > < br / > frozen meat: not all frozen, but divided frozen, The main sales channels are schools, hotels, construction sites and other places where consumption is concentrated More than 100 slaughterhouses will process frozen products, depending on the sales volume and whether they are made into frozen products < br / > hqq < br / > enterprise C < br / > hqq < br / > < br / > sow stock: about 6000 pigs, about 16000 before the epidemic, recovered to the level before the epidemic in August September There is no business to business transfer < br / > hqq < br / > < br / > policies and measures: implement the requirements of the two sessions, crack down on illegal cross provincial transportation, and relax environmental protection requirements < br / > hqq < br / > < br / > hqq < br / > < br / > new production capacity: no less than 10 new pig factories and no less than 1 million sows < br / > hqq < br / > < br / > price: the price can be pushed up passively by the market, and the active price increase is not allowed < br / > hqq < br / > pig dealer < br / > hqq < br / > < br / > settlement method: pay the day before, pick up the pig the day after and sign the contract Small factories may have price fluctuations, easy to break contracts, and large farms have good reputation < br / > hqq < br / > < br / > risk point: loss is mainly caused by two aspects: one is pig death during transportation, the other is weight loss during transportation < br / > hqq < br / > < br / > purchase radius: 500-700km < br / > hqq < br / > < br / > profit making method: when the slaughterhouse asks for goods, the pig dealer will go to the breeding enterprise to pull the pig As long as the price is appropriate and there is a price difference, the pig dealer can pull the pig < br / > hqq < br / > < br / > the fresh meat turns into frozen meat, with a loss of about 10000 yuan per ton < br / > hqq < br / > < br / > < br / > < br / > research background < br / > hqq < br / > < br / > China Securities Regulatory Commission officially approved the pig futures project application of GSE on April 24 As the largest animal husbandry variety in the world and the largest agricultural variety in China, the listing of pig futures will provide effective risk management tools for pig breeding enterprises in China and help the development of agriculture in China < br / > hqq < br / > At the initial stage of pig futures listing, the futures price may fluctuate significantly under the influence of spot In this context, in June, niuqian.com organized a survey in Henan and surrounding provinces, the benchmark of pig futures In this survey, led by Professor Xu Qingsong, a senior expert in pig industry, we will coordinate the research on the diversity of ecological points (including feed enterprises, distributors, large and medium-sized farms, pig purchasers, butchers, white bar wholesalers, frozen meat importers), so as to facilitate the mutual correction of various information And what's the industry's view on the future? Let's go deep into the benchmark and intensive areas of pig futures to find out the answer, and provide some basis for predicting the later market < br / > hqq < br / > survey summary < br / > hqq < br / > < br / > 1 At present, we dare not blindly transfer the price, because 16 yuan/