The latest data reveals "all living beings" in the pharmaceutical industry

Source: medical economic news 2017-11-21 16:42:58 In 2017, the opportunities and challenges faced by the pharmaceutical industry are multiple: on the one hand, the consistency evaluation of generic drugs, environmental protection and other factors make pharmaceutical enterprises face reshuffle; the "two vote system" and "two-time bargaining" of drug procurement are blooming everywhere; the year-on-year decline of pharmaceutical exports, the situation is not optimistic; the growth rate of industrial main revenue is less than 10% or will become normal On the other hand, the reform of drug examination has greatly promoted the research and development of new drugs, and the merger and reorganization of the pharmaceutical industry has increased unabated, which means the opportunity is coming By analyzing the latest data from the start of new medical reform in 2009 to the first half of 2017, the author shows the real situation of the pharmaceutical industry under the superposition of various forces Secret of enterprise quantity: the reasons for the decrease of industry, wholesale and retail are different In terms of pharmaceutical industry, according to the statistics of CFDA white paper, in 2016, the number of pharmaceutical enterprises in China decreased by 880 compared with the previous year, the first decrease in the past five years, with a decrease of 17.41% The author believes that the main reasons for the decrease of the number of enterprises are merger and reorganization, the consistency evaluation of generic drugs, environmental protection and GMP flight inspection Among them, the most important factor is merger and reorganization, and some enterprises belong to the group In 2016, the number of drug wholesale enterprises was 12975, a decrease of 533 compared with the previous year, a decrease of 3.95%, mainly due to the policy guidance of "two vote system" and "supporting the University and strengthening" Under the guidance of the policy of "supporting the University and strengthening it", since 2016, China Resources and Shanghai Pharmaceutical have made a positive layout and extensive development Since the state control has completed the extensive development layout, it has not expanded much in this year In terms of retail drugstores, in 2016, there were 226331 single drugstores (decreased by about 20000), and 220703 chain stores (increased by about 20000), which means that 20000 single drugstores became chain drugstores in 2016 According to the requirements of the 13th five year plan for the national drug distribution industry, the chain rate of drugstores should reach more than 50% In 2016, the number of retail drugstore chain enterprises increased by 628, and the chain rate has reached 49.37%, which is close to the target of the 13th five year plan It can be seen that the current development direction of retail pharmacies is chain store, which is convenient for management, and improves efficiency, and adapts to the requirements of national "integration of wholesale and retail" Current situation of the pharmaceutical industry: the pharmaceutical industry is still a sunrise industry, but the pressure of raw material pharmaceutical enterprises is great In 2016, the added value of the pharmaceutical industry increased by 10.4% year-on-year, with the fastest growth rate among all 12 industrial industries, which can be described as a unique branch; the next is the mechanical and electronic industry, which is 9.6% According to the latest data from the Department of consumer goods industry of the Ministry of industry and information technology of the people's Republic of China, in the first half of 2017, the added value of the pharmaceutical industry above designated size increased by 11.3% year on year, 1 percentage point higher than that of the same period of last year, 4.4 percentage points higher than the overall growth rate of the national industry, still ranking in the forefront of the whole industry The total output value of the pharmaceutical industry increased by 9.9% year on year, and the profit increased by 15.6% year on year It is worth noting that the increase of the profit exceeds the increase of the total industrial output value Since the start of the new health care reform, the growth rate of profit has been downward, even lower than the growth rate of industrial output value for several years; until 2015, it has returned to above the growth rate of industrial output value The main reasons are the rising price of APIs and the good market momentum of medical devices Generally speaking, in recent years, the sales revenue and profit of medicine have been on the rise, which shows that under the heavy pressure of bidding and price reduction, the rigid demand of medicine market is still very strong, and of course, the factor that the base price is turned into high opening due to the implementation of "two vote system" is not excluded From the perspective of industry concentration, in 2016, the concentration of the top 100 industrial enterprises was less than 50%, compared with 70% of the top 100 commercial enterprises, and the concentration of the top 100 industrial enterprises still needs to be strengthened In the first half of 2017, the growth of two sub industries not affected by the policy deserves attention: Chinese herbal pieces are not affected by the "zero plus" policy, with a profit growth of 22.78%; while medical devices have not yet experienced bidding, pricing, etc., with a profit growth of 15.55% Biopharmaceuticals have been paid more attention by the state, used more clinically and entered the medical insurance, so the profit growth is as high as 28.45%, far higher than the average level of the pharmaceutical industry API enterprises may be severely tested: first, environmental protection is forced; second, policies are forced to stop production With the strengthening of environmental protection, a large number of small and medium-sized enterprises that are unable to upgrade will be eliminated These enterprises will be eliminated in the next year or two The market they leave behind will be seized by those enterprises that are now holding a large sum of money and vigorously improving their environmental protection capabilities The author believes that the State Council's environmental protection efforts, 70% of raw material pharmaceutical enterprises will be eliminated, the industry shuffle! In terms of production suspension, on November 6, the Ministry of industry and information technology, the Ministry of environmental protection, the national health and Family Planning Commission and CFDA jointly issued the notice on doing well in heating season staggered peak production 2017-2018 for pharmaceutical enterprises in Beijing, Tianjin, Hebei and surrounding areas, which attracted the attention of the industry The circular requires 28 cities (involving six provinces and municipalities directly under the central government) to alternately suspend production of raw material pharmaceutical enterprises, and to completely suspend production of VOCs (volatile organic compounds) emission process This shutdown may lead to fluctuations in API prices In addition, the related approval is of particular concern On October 8, 2017, Article 12 of the opinions on deepening the reform of the review and approval system and encouraging the innovation of pharmaceutical and medical devices issued by the two offices made it clear that the examination and approval of drugs related to pharmaceutical raw and auxiliary materials and packaging materials should be implemented APIs, pharmaceutical excipients, packaging materials and preparations shall be reviewed and approved together when approving the drug registration application, and no API approval number shall be issued This means that preparations and APIs should be declared together in the future At present, there are only preparations without APIs, and it may not be feasible to apply for API approval again Circulation operation: the intensity of competition is increasing, ask management for efficiency! In terms of drug distribution, according to the latest data of the Ministry of Commerce, in the first half of 2017, the sales volume of Western medicine accounted for 69.4% of the total sales volume of seven categories of medical products; the sales volume of Chinese patent medicine accounted for 15.6%; the sales volume of medical equipment accounted for 5.8%; the sales volume of Chinese herbal medicine accounted for 2.7%; the sales volume of chemical reagents accounted for 1%; the sales volume of glass instruments accounted for less than 1%; the sales volume of other categories accounted for 5.4% According to the classification of sales objects (including seven categories of medical products), the sales volume of production enterprises is 5.5 billion yuan, accounting for 0.6% of the total sales volume; the sales volume of wholesale enterprises is 373.5 billion yuan, accounting for 37.7% of the total sales volume; the total sales volume of terminals (including the sales of medical institutions, retail terminals and residents) is 610.4 billion yuan, accounting for 61.7% of the total sales volume Among them, 453.5 billion yuan was sold to medical terminals, accounting for 74.3% of the terminal sales; 156.9 billion yuan was sold to retail terminals and residents, accounting for 25.7% of the terminal sales Compared with the same period of last year, the proportion of sales to wholesale enterprises decreased, while the proportion of sales to terminals increased It should be noted that at present, the average profit margin of 1.7% of pharmaceutical business has reached the level of European and American countries, but the average expense rate of 5.8% indicates that the management cost has increased Therefore, pharmaceutical commercial enterprises must ask management for benefits in order to get higher net benefits Business needs flat management to improve efficiency In addition, 100 commercial enterprises occupy 70.9% of the market, which means that less than 30% of the market is divided by more than 12800 commercial enterprises, and the intensity of competition is intensified As a result, the living space of many enterprises is squeezed and even eliminated Hospital medication amount: the increase of total amount declined! Why does the proportion of major categories decrease? In terms of drug use amount of sample hospitals, the growth rate of total amount in the first half of 2017 declined, only 1.08% (the growth rate in 2016 was 7.49%) Since 2015, most hospitals across the country have generally started to take charge control and prescription assessment measures (such as total prepayment system, drug proportion, clinical treatment path, auxiliary drug control, etc.), especially the recent introduction of "two ticket system" and the implementation of "zero difference rate" in public hospitals, which are the main factors leading to the decline of the increase in the amount of drugs purchased by hospitals In the first half of 2017, anti infective drugs, blood and hematopoietic system drugs, cardiovascular system drugs, nervous system drugs, anti-tumor drugs and immunomodulatory prices, and digestive system drugs ranked first in six categories However, the proportion of blood and hematopoietic system drugs and cardiovascular system drugs decreased, especially systemic anti infective drugs; anti infective drugs, cardiovascular system drugs, nervous system drugs, immunomodulators and traditional Chinese medicine showed negative growth (the largest decline of traditional Chinese Medicine), which is a rare phenomenon in recent years Anti infective drugs are still in the first category, indicating that some anti infective drugs are still clinically recognized, and the clinical demand is also great, but due to the emergence of drug resistance, new anti infective drugs are more needed to replace The negative growth of cardiovascular drugs may be due to the extension to the community and the grass-roots level under the influence of "Medical Association" As PDB data is included in hospitals with more than 100 beds, the drug use data in hospitals may be lower than the actual market sales Traditional Chinese medicine is mainly affected by auxiliary drugs, the use of traditional Chinese medicine injections and some of the top three hospitals' regulations that the use of proprietary Chinese medicine should not exceed 300 factors From the analysis of concentration of drugs and manufacturers, the top 200 almost all accounted for 70% The national health and Family Planning Commission put forward a theory similar to the "28 law" that "for the drugs purchased by the hospital with 80% of the total amount and 20% of the drug regulations, they are included in the scope of bidding procurement (estimated to be about 200-300 drugs); for the drugs purchased by the hospital with 20% of the total amount and 80% of the drug regulations, direct online procurement can be considered" In this regard, the industry should think about the underlying reasons? As the top 200 varieties account for a large proportion of hospital money, there is the possibility of further price adjustment, especially for some traditional Chinese medicine injections and the varieties listed as auxiliary drugs, relevant enterprises should formulate corresponding product strategies From the regional analysis, foreign-funded enterprises rank first in most of the key treatment areas in the eastern region, and state-owned enterprises occupy more leading positions in the northeast, central and Western markets Some state-owned enterprises have obvious advantages in the local hospital market due to local protection and other reasons.