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Since November this year, with the repeated epidemic and the enthusiasm of the people for drug reserves, anti-influenza Chinese medicinal materials have been sold for two times, and the market of many varieties has risen.
01 The epidemic has been "re-initiated" at many points, and epidemic prevention is still in the stage of tackling tough problems
Figure 1: 2022.
11.
29 Number of confirmed cases of new coronary pneumonia in various provinces across the country
From the perspective of confirmed cases, the epidemic has shown a multi-point "resurgence" trend, and North China, South China and Southwest China are in the stage of tackling tough problems
.
As of November 29, 2022, 7 of China's 31 provinces (autonomous regions and municipalities directly under the central government, the same below) have more than 1,000 confirmed cases, accounting for 22.
58%.
Among them, the existing confirmed cases in Guangdong, Beijing, Henan, Chongqing and Shanxi are 11,634, 4,706, 3,064, 2,454 and 2,296 respectively, totaling 24,154, accounting for 70.
91%
of the known confirmed cases.
At present, although the domestic epidemic has been effectively controlled under the overall arrangement of relevant epidemic prevention and control departments, due to the impact of respiratory diseases entering a high incidence period in winter and spring, all parts of the country are still in the stage of fighting the
epidemic.
02 The demand for epidemic prevention drugs is still increasing
Figure 2: Search index of Lianhua Qingwen, Huoxiang Zhengqi and Jinhua Qingyan in November 2022
With the further promotion of precise prevention and control across the country, the epidemic prevention search index showed a significant upward
trend in November 2022.
The search index of epidemic prevention keywords peaked three times in November, on the 5th, 11th and
28th.
From the perspective of epidemic prevention drugs, in November 2022, the epidemic prevention drug search index showed that it first increased and then declined, and began to usher in rapid growth on the 11th, and reached its peak on the 15th, and the subsequent public epidemic prevention sentiment was alleviated, and drug consumption tended to be rational
。
On November 11, 2022, the Comprehensive Group of the Joint Prevention and Control Mechanism of the State Council to Respond to the Novel Coronavirus Pneumonia Epidemic issued the Notice on Further Optimizing the Prevention and Control Measures for the New Coronavirus Pneumonia Epidemic and Scientifically and Accurately Doing a Good Job in Prevention and Control Work, further optimizing personnel management and regional management, and striking hard to curb the "one-size-fits-all" epidemic prevention measures
.
The public's attention to personal protection and new crown pneumonia prevention has increased rapidly, which has stimulated the demand for epidemic prevention drugs to usher in a small peak
in a short period of time.
03 Raw material ups and downs: rising varieties and varieties with short growth cycles account for a high proportion
Table 1: Monthly Rise and Fall of 69 Common Epidemic Prevention and Monitoring Varieties (RMB/kg)
Figure 3: Distribution of 69 commonly used epidemic prevention and monitoring varieties
From the perspective of the rise and fall of varieties, affected by the surge in epidemic drugs, the proportion of rising varieties is obviously high
.
In November 2022, among the 69 commonly used epidemic prevention and monitoring varieties, there were 25 rising varieties, such as northern sand ginseng, winter flower, mulberry leaf, banlan root, aster, big green leaf, wild chrysanthemum, patchouli, magnolia, aloe root, zhimu, etc.
, accounting for 36.
23%; There were 27 flat varieties, such as cicada molt, dry half summer, gynostemma, wattle, dried bitter melon, wheat dong, artemisia, yam, prince ginseng, xuan ginseng, houttuynia, chaihu, etc.
, accounting for 39.
13%; There were 17 declining varieties, such as Chuanxiong, Calamus, Baishu, Coix Kernel, Dried Ginger, Burdock, Goji Berry, Mint, etc.
, accounting for 24.
64%.
Figure 4: Growth cycle distribution of 69 commonly used epidemic prevention and monitoring varieties
From the perspective of the growth period of varieties, the proportion of varieties with short growth cycles is high, and the shortage of epidemic prevention raw materials will be expected to ease
.
In November 2022, among the 69 commonly used epidemic prevention and monitoring varieties, a total of 57 had a growth cycle of 3 years or less, accounting for 82.
61%.
。 Specifically, there were 30 with a growth cycle of 1 year, such as northern sand ginseng, banlan root, big green leaf, wild chrysanthemum, patchouli, aloe root, perran, swollen joint, etc.
, accounting for 43.
48%;
There were 10 with a growth cycle of 2 years, such as skullcap, windbreak, shooting, chaihu, guanzhong, bellflower, dandelion, gypsum, etc.
, accounting for 14.
49%;
There are 17 with a growth cycle of 3 years, such as winter flower, mulberry leaf, zhimu, huanglian, forsythia, honeysuckle, jade bamboo, codonopsis, licorice, knotweed, etc.
, accounting for 24.
64%.
In addition, there were 9 with a growth cycle of 4 years, such as aster, Sichuan fritillary, pig ling, mountain peach kernel, cangshu, bitter almond, liaoxiaoxiang, citrus fruit, wolfberry, etc.
, accounting for 13.
04%;
There are 3 growth cycles of 5 years or more, such as magnolia, laurel branch and betel nut, accounting for 1.
45%.
In 2020, traditional Chinese medicine raw materials began to usher in a general rise in the market, and it has been nearly 3 years now
.
Most of the raw materials have ushered in a new round of production peaks stimulated by high prices in recent years, and the surge in raw material production capacity will gradually become prominent
.
04 Analysis of some hot raw materials
Banlangen: The annual consumption is maintained at around 30,000 tons
.
Affected by the epidemic in 2020, the market price of Banlangen began to rise rapidly from 8.
5 yuan (kilogram price, the same below) to 25 yuan, and the short-term rapid rise stimulated the production area to vigorously produce, resulting in the market falling into a downturn
again in 2021.
Due to the low planting difficulty of banlan root, the wide coverage of production areas, and the current peak season, it is expected that its price will fluctuate
in the range of 10-15 yuan in the next period.
Shuangqin: The annual consumption has remained around 10,000 tons, and the market demand has grown significantly in recent years due to the impact of the epidemic, and the social demand has exceeded 10,500 tons
.
In particular, the rapid rise in the market in 2020 has greatly stimulated the enthusiasm of farmers in the production area, and the planting area has spread
rapidly to the surrounding areas centered on the main producing area.
The price of scutellaria has been hovering in the range of 18-20 yuan for nearly 3 years, and the production capacity is still increasing, because the current material season, it is expected that in the next period, although the price of scutellaria will rise slightly, but the overall will remain stable
.
Big green leaf: The annual consumption is around 2,000 tons
.
Affected by the epidemic in 2020, the market price of Daqingye rose rapidly from 2.
5 yuan to 5.
5 yuan, and the short-term rapid rise stimulated the production area to vigorously produce, resulting in the market falling into a downturn
again after the new production in 2021.
Due to its low planting difficulty, wide production area coverage and easy production recovery, the price of large green leaf fluctuates frequently
.
Although it is currently the peak season, the production capacity has kept up, and it is expected that its price will show range volatility
in the coming period.
patchouli: annual consumption 4000-4500 tons
.
In 2020, under the influence of the epidemic, the social demand for patchouli surged significantly, and because the production capacity could not meet the market demand, the price of patchouli in 2021 ushered in a new peak in the past five years, and the production of major production areas began to expand, making the new production in 2021 ushered in a cliff-like diving market
.
It is currently the peak season, and with the rapid digestion of inventory, patchouli's inventory pressure will be improved to some extent, but due to its serious surge in production capacity, the overall performance of the future market will still be slightly sluggish
.
Windproof: annual consumption 3500-4000 tons
.
After the introduction of the 2020 edition of the Chinese Pharmacopoeia, due to the inconsistency of indicators such as the windproof traits of domestic breeds with the pharmacopoeia, the windproof of domestic breeds was seriously unsold, and then due to the surge in social demand of the epidemic, wild windproof ushered in a new turning point in the context of being unable to meet social needs
.
However, due to the reduction in production of windproof in 2019-2021, the overall production capacity remains at a low level, and it is currently in the peak season, due to the tight overall inventory performance, it is expected that the windproof price may still rise
.
Krato: The annual consumption is around 10,000 tons
.
The production area of bellflower is relatively wide, but the real scale is mainly concentrated in Inner Mongolia, Shaanxi and Anhui
.
In 2015, the price of bellflower fell back to 17 yuan, and production in various production areas was seriously reduced, and then the market steadily rose
under the support of labor costs.
From 2016 to 2019, the price of bellflower continued to fluctuate at 18-23 yuan, although the market has risen, but farmers' enthusiasm for planting is not high
.
In 2020, due to the surge in social demand, the social stock of bellflower was fully digested, and the production area in the production area was reduced for many years, and its price rose rapidly to a high price
of 40 yuan.
After 2021, multi-production areas began to increase production, especially in Inner Mongolia, and the overall production capacity increased rapidly under mechanized operations
.
At present, Kratom is in the peak season, although supply and demand have eased due to the recovery of production capacity, but the gap between supply and demand still exists, and it is expected that its price will still fluctuate
at a high level in the next period.
Forsythia: The annual dosage is around 8,000 tons
.
Affected by the epidemic in 2020, the forsythia market rose rapidly from 40 yuan to 90 yuan, the highest point in 2021, an increase of 125.
00%.
On the one hand, due to the surge in social demand, its market has risen rapidly; On the other hand, due to the introduction of the 2020 edition of the Chinese Pharmacopoeia, there is a serious shortage of qualified products, resulting in a gradual widening of the market gap, which has helped the rapid rise of the < B144>。
In 2022, stimulated by high prices, forsythia, which was originally in tight supply, was affected by artificial forsythia, and qualified forsythia continued to decline
.
At present, Forsythia is in the peak season, although the current price is very tempting for merchants, but there are many merchants who actively cash out, and it is expected that its prices will still fluctuate
at a high level in the next period.
05 Summary
In November 2022, the new crown pneumonia epidemic has been repeated in many points, but the gap in the supply of proprietary Chinese medicines and raw materials of traditional Chinese medicines is not large
.
Although the price of epidemic prevention drugs will cause abnormal price fluctuations due to short-term demand growth, because the epidemic has lasted for nearly three years, raw material production has been expanded in time, and it is expected that this phased market situation will be quickly suppressed
as the public's response to the epidemic "passivates".
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