The pattern of the innovative drug industry has become clearer, and there are three points in the layout logic

【Pharmaceutical Network Market Analysis】"Innovative drugs have experienced a period of clearance in the past, the industry pattern has gradually become clear, high clinical value pharmaceutical companies may stand out, and some companies will enter the stage
of commercialization.
" Some fund practitioners said
.
From the recent performance of innovative drugs, since the National Day in October, innovative drugs have begun to move upward, with the CSI Innovative Drugs Industry Index rebounding by more than 22% from the stage low, and the CSI Innovative Drugs 30 Index rebounding by more than 25% from the stage low, which is also the reason why
many funds are optimistic about innovative drugs recently 。 The analysis believes that the current competitive pattern of innovative drugs has been optimized, including cell gene therapy, ADC drugs, oligonucleotide drugs, etc.
in recent years, the prosperity of the entire industry has been promoted, and at the same time, under the normalization of medical insurance negotiations, more and more innovative drugs have entered medical insurance, and price for volume has brought growth momentum to many pharmaceutical companies, and some domestic innovative drugs have obtained new growth points
by going overseas.
In addition, under the New Deal to combat "pseudo-innovation", the industry competition pattern has gradually improved
.
Looking forward to the future market, for the main logic of the layout of innovative drugs, some fund managers believe that there are mainly the following three points: First, with the continuous improvement of the independent research and development capabilities and levels of China's anti-tumor drug enterprises, new anti-tumor drugs represented by small molecule targeted drugs (targeted drugs) and large molecule monoclonal antibodies (immunotherapy drugs) continue to emerge, and the entire innovative drug industry has entered a new round of product cycle, boom cycle and investment cycle
。 Second, after the decline of innovative drug companies, the valuation is now at a low level, even lower than when the first stock price of the innovative drug industry was launched in 2017, with the current round of rebound, the industry believes that this means that the investment window has appeared
.
Third, the medical insurance policy encourages innovation to be further clarified, and the market's sentiment for innovative drug investment has picked up
recently.
The industry believes that the core of medical insurance is still to encourage innovation, and since the national policy of supporting the development of innovative drugs in 2015, some domestic innovative drugs that appeared in 2018-2019 are some generic innovations
that lack special value.
However, after the reshuffle in 2020, the scarce true innovative drugs have been supported, and such innovative drugs are also expected to accelerate their entry into medical insurance through more moderate price reductions and achieve rapid volume
.
At present, many securities institutions are very concerned about
the new trend of medical insurance.
For example, the manager of GF Healthcare Fund told the media that in the next two months, there will be two important drug-related medical insurance events such as the national talks on innovative drugs and the eighth batch of generic drugs, and the price reduction of related drugs will be an important wind vane
.
In terms of the national talks on innovative drugs, the Health Insurance Bureau has issued a clear negotiation policy and simple renewal rules
.
The rules themselves are open and transparent and relatively mild, and it can be expected that this national talk on innovative drugs may not allow relevant drugs to bear a large price reduction pressure
.
CITIC Prudential Fund believes that the innovative drugs currently proposed for negotiation cover biological drugs, small molecule drugs, innovative Chinese medicines, etc.
, with about 35 contracts renewed and more than 10 new drugs
.
The view is also that this year's health insurance negotiations will be marginally relaxed, mainly based on the trend
of the pharmaceutical industry in the past month.
However, for some non-exclusive and new small indications this year, the fund manager believes that small indications will not account for a particularly high proportion of the overall pipeline of pharmaceutical companies, and pharmaceutical companies have insufficient
motivation to reduce the price of such innovative drugs.
Disclaimer: Under no circumstances does the information or opinions expressed herein constitute investment advice
to anyone.