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The performance of Pian Tsai has declined, will the bet on Angong Beef Yellow Pill be successful?

 Last Update: 2022-10-31
 Source: Internet
 Author: User

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According to the financial data for the third quarter of 2022 released by Zhangzhou Pian Tsai Pharmaceutical Co.
, Ltd.
(Pian Tsai, 600436) on October 24, in the first three quarters of this year, Pian Tsai achieved operating income of 6.
616 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.
25%; The net profit was 2.
052 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.
04%.

In the third quarter of this year, the operating income of Pian Tsai reached 2.
193 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 3.
08%; The net profit was 738 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 17.
64%.

Figure 1: Core operating indicators of Pian Tsai from 2015 to 2021

First, create a new growth pole of Angong Beef Yellow Pills

At the beginning of 2021, due to the impact of the epidemic, the natural musk and other herbs in the formula fell into a crisis of insufficient supply and excessive demand, coupled with the hype of scalpers, the price of tablets rose and sales were booming
.
Since September 2021, the price of tablets has gradually declined, and there have been repeated cases of falling below the pricing in the second-hand market
.

Some market views believe that the performance of Pian Tsai in the first three quarters of 2022 is under pressure, which is not unrelated
to the hype of miracle medicine stalling and the emergence of real consumer demand.
The revenue and gross profit margin of the core products of Pian Tsai Zhen for liver disease both declined
.
According to the financial report, in the first three quarters of 2022, the revenue of the drug for liver disease was 2.
972 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 0.
70%; The gross profit margin was 80.
34%, a year-on-year decrease of 1.
58%.

From the company's semi-annual report, it can be seen that while continuing to consolidate and deepen the core position of Pian Tsai Pills, the company has focused on creating a new growth pole
of Pian Tsai brand Angong Ox Yellow Pills.
Pian Tsai brand Angong beef yellow pills are also made of natural musk and natural bezoar as raw materials, both of which are controlled varieties and need to be purchased in accordance with relevant national regulations
.

In this issue, the big data platform of Tiandi Yuntu Chinese medicine industry makes a brief analysis
of the cost pressure of traditional Chinese medicine raw materials of enterprises from the perspective of the raw materials involved in Angong Beef Yellow Pill.

Second, the core raw materials of Angong beef yellow pills

Table 1: Core raw materials of Angong beef yellow pills

Angong Ox Yellow Pill has the ability
to clear heat and detoxify, and calm shock.
For fever, evil into the pericardium, febrile convulsions, dizziness; Stroke coma and encephalitis, meningitis, toxic encephalopathy, cerebral hemorrhage, sepsis see the above symptoms
.

Third, the rise and fall of the core raw materials of Angong beef yellow pills

Table 2: Angong beef yellow pill core raw material price rise and fall (yuan/kg)

From January 2021 to October 2022, the price of 7 raw material varieties increased, accounting for 64%, the price of 3 raw materials decreased, accounting for 28%, and the price of 1 raw material was flat, accounting for 8%.

4.
Angong beef yellow pill raw material market evaluation

Bezoar, a valuable Chinese herbal medicine, has weak market inventory, and the source of goods is mostly concentrated in the hands
of a small number of holders.
Merchants are reluctant to sell the source of goods, the market is running in a strong manner, the price of natural beef yellow in the market is between 570,000-580,000 yuan (kg price, the same below), due to the increase in demand, the market is expected to continue to rise
.

Buffalo horn, early search for goods merchants will be more, the market continues to rise, after the high price is higher, in recent days small batch movement normal, the market remains firm running, the current market buffalo horn wire asking price between 30-35 yuan; The supply of tall people is still small, and the quotation is about
45 yuan.
The market inventory is tight, and the market may
change.

Musk, there are not many goods recently, the market inventory is weak, and the attention of merchants is still high
.
Holders are reluctant to sell, the source of small quantities moves smoothly, the price is running firmly, the market natural musk is about 450,000 yuan, and the price of artificial musk is around 60,000 yuan
.

Cinnabar, the market inventory is not much, the recent source of goods is normal purchase and sales, the market and the previous period remain stable, the current market water content sufficient price of goods at 500 yuan, natural cinnabar price at 620 yuan, synthetic price at 480 yuan, chensha price in 480 yuan
.
The market demand for this variety is stable, and the price is expected to run
firmly.

Xionghuang, the market source of goods due to the quality of the variety, there is a large difference in prices, the recent price remains stable, the current market male yellow synthetic goods price is about 40 yuan, the price of natural goods is 80 yuan, the price of Ming Xionghuang is 100 yuan
.
Due to limited demand, the overall attention of merchants is not high
.

Huanglian, new goods have been listed one after another, affected by the rise in the price of the production area, the market is more popular, the market is firm, the current market chicken feet continuous price is about 185 yuan, single continuous price is about
195 yuan.
This variety is more popular, and there is still a possibility
of change in the market after the market.

5.
Comprehensive assessment

1.
The procurement cost pressure of buffalo horn and other varieties is greater The pressure test of raw materials shows that the current raw materials of Angong beef yellow pills mainly come from buffalo horn, tulip, gardenia, beef yellow, etc.
from the perspective of supply pressure; From the perspective of quality pressure, it mainly comes from bezoar, musk and so on
.

2.
Buffalo horn mainly focuses on the size of imports In recent years, China's traditional agriculture is rapidly moving towards modern agriculture, the degree of agricultural mechanization is getting higher and higher, and the amount of buffalo breeding is gradually decreasing, affecting the normal supply
of buffalo horn.

In this context, in the short term, buffalo horn has basically completed the band-up upward process in recent years, and the market will be sorted out after a period of shock; However, in the medium and long term, factors such as shrinking resources and increased demand will once again push the price of buffalo horn to a new level
.
At present, buffalo horn is mainly imported, and the number of goods coming from the port will determine the price trend
in the future.

In addition, the company expects to replicate the miracle of Pian Tsai on Angong Beef Yellow Pill, which may not be easy, because this variety is not an exclusive variety, and Pian Tsai will face many competitors
such as Tongrentang Group and Hu Qing Yutang.

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