The stock of feed enterprises decreases, and the rebound probability of soybean meal price increases gradually

Introduction: At present, the domestic soybean meal market is still in a downward trend, and there is fierce price competition among oil plants At present, the overall price level of domestic soybean meal is between 2500-2700 yuan / ton, and the factory price of soybean meal in East China is relatively stable, but the actual transaction price is declining more than half Under the pressure of peripheral supply, the price of soybean meal in South China is falling again, the lowest It has also broken through 2700 yuan / ton In recent years, the spot price of soybean meal shows a bear market Influenced by the wait-and-see mentality, the purchasing enthusiasm of feed enterprises has decreased significantly At present, the stock quantity of many feed enterprises is at a relatively low level, which enhances the probability of domestic soybean meal price rebound in the later period The specific analysis is as follows: the soybean meal market bears obviously, and the price "falls" incessantly With the trend of soybean meal quotation in oil plants day by day, the bear market of soybean meal market has been basically established According to statistics, this week, the soybean meal quotation in Harbin, Heilongjiang Province is about 2400-2450 yuan / ton, 200 yuan / ton lower than last week; the soybean meal ex factory quotation in Jiamusi region is about 2450 yuan / ton, 50 yuan / ton lower than last week; the quotation in Liaoning region is between 2450-2500 yuan / ton, the price is about 2450-2500 yuan / ton Compared with last week, GE's price decreased by 200 yuan / ton, of which the ex factory price of soybean meal from Dalian oil plant was 2500 yuan / ton, 200 yuan / ton lower than last week; the price of soybean meal from Shenyang was 2450 yuan / ton, 200 yuan / ton lower than last week; the price of 43% protein soybean meal from an oil enterprise in Qinhuangdao region was 2500-2520 yuan / ton, 100 yuan / ton lower than last week; the price of 43% protein soybean meal from Rizhao region in Shandong Province was 2 About 600 yuan / ton, the price is 50-100 yuan / ton lower than last week; 43% protein soybean meal in Lianyungang district is 2530 yuan / ton, the price is 100 yuan / ton lower than last week; 44% protein soybean meal in Zhangjiagang District, Jiangsu Province is 2470-2600 yuan / ton, the price is 100-200 yuan / ton lower than last week; 43% soybean meal in Jinguang District, Ningbo, Zhejiang Province is 2530-2570 yuan / ton, the price is 80-130 yuan / ton lower than last week; The price of soybean meal in Guangdong oil factory is about 2600 yuan / ton, which is 50 yuan / ton lower than last week The whole domestic soybean meal market is falling The purchasing of feed enterprises is light, and the inventory level of enterprises is declining Facing the falling market price of soybean meal, most domestic feed enterprises are increasingly bearish towards the future market, and they return to the old way of "use as you go" for a period of time As they tend to wait and see in the market more often, they are trying to reduce the purchase as much as possible to avoid the cost risk that may be brought by the continuous decline of soybean meal price in the later period At present, most small and medium-sized distributors It has left the market to wait and see, or it has continued to light up its position At the same time that the national feed enterprises are not willing to increase the inventory under the current market condition, some feed enterprises have another worry, that is, whether the current inventory level will become the subject matter for later oil factories to speculate, but at least at present, the soybean meal price seems to have a certain fall back space, after all, the oil three crushing profit is still rich, which is also a feed enterprise The reason why the industry is uncertain But in the long run, once the soybean meal market gets the opportunity to upgrade, the oil factory will surely hype vigorously to take the opportunity to raise the market price, which is expected to be staged CBOT soybean price is hard to change in bear market, and oil plant procurement cost is reduced Recently, CBOT soybean price has risen to a certain extent, which is mainly due to the strength comparison between the long and short US funds The former is slightly in the upper hand, but the analysis shows that this staged rebound is difficult to reverse the bear market pattern of the international soybean market The main pressure of the market comes from the increase of new soybean output and the substantial expansion of the world soybean inventory level Since September 1, 2004, the United States has loaded 1.0532 million tons of soybeans into China, which will arrive in late October and November The cost of this batch of American beans is quite cheap The cost price of the arrival and tax payment of the November shipment is estimated to be only 2600-2700 yuan / ton At present, the main contract price of CBOT soybean in November is only 513 US cents / bushel, the FOB price of Meiwan soybean is about 47 US cents / bushel, and the freight is 56 US dollars / ton Thus, the theoretical import cost of meidou in November is only about 2620 US dollars / ton However, in the later stage, both domestic and American new beans will have greater supply pressure on the market, so the risk of future market oscillation will be further increased According to the comprehensive analysis, although the domestic soybean meal market is in decline, some feed enterprises have begun to worry about the current inventory level They are worried that without inventory, the oil factory will act again in the market If the market demand continues to be depressed, and the processing cost continues to decline, it is expected that the downturn of soybean meal market will continue Therefore, in the "competition" between oil mills and feed enterprises in the domestic soybean meal market in the later stage, who will last will determine the market trend of domestic soybean meal market in the later stage, but the decline of the stock level of feed enterprises will increase the probability of soybean meal price rebound in the later stage In the later period, we still pay close attention to the trend of U.S market, domestic soybean oil price and the market trend after the mass listing of domestic new beans.