The third quarter report of the pharmaceutical industry: the policy enters the wait-and-see period, and the pharmaceutical enterprises usher in drastic adjustment

At present, the medical policy is clearly based on medical insurance, and the industry is in the process of "eliminating the turnips and saving the turnips" The price game of drugs may be more intense in the future In 2018, under the influence of industrial policies such as medical insurance fee control, drug price reduction and the proportion of controlled drugs, the growth rate of hospital terminals continued to be sluggish The overall growth rate of hospital market decreased from 1.58% in 2017 to 0.98% in the first half of 2018, which was partly due to the outflow of prescriptions, especially the slow disease drugs to the lower level Specifically on the quarterly level, the second quarter of 2018 increased by 1.30% year-on-year, up from 0.65% in the first quarter of 2018 As of the latest data, from January to July 2018, the number of urban basic medical insurance participants increased by 10% year-on-year to 1.202 billion, the amount of financing was 11995 billion, up 15% year-on-year, and the expenditure was 895.9 billion, up 21% year-on-year The number of insured persons increased by 10% over the same period last year From January to August 2018, the cumulative revenue growth of the pharmaceutical manufacturing industry was 13.8%, slightly higher than last year, and the cumulative total profit growth was 11.4%, significantly lower than the same period last year The high growth rate in the first half of 2018 is mainly due to the implementation of the two vote system since the second half of 2017, which has turned pharmaceutical enterprises from low to high development, resulting in a significant increase in revenue The median growth rate of pharmaceutical listed companies in the third quarter report is mainly concentrated in 10% - 50%, with 84 enterprises in total, accounting for 74% of the performance prediction companies; among them, 52 companies with 10% - 30% growth, accounting for 46%; 32 companies with 30% - 50% growth, accounting for 28%; in addition, 43 companies with negative growth in the median, accounting for 38% of the prediction companies Recently, affected by factors such as volume purchase, tumor drug negotiation and price reduction, pharmaceutical listed companies have experienced drastic adjustment At present, the medical policy is clearly based on medical insurance, and the industry is in the process of "eliminating the turnips and saving the turnips" The price game of drugs may be more intense in the future On the one hand, the state has brought a number of foreign-funded varieties into the medical insurance through medical insurance negotiations, forcing domestic enterprises to speed up the pace of innovation On the other hand, through volume purchasing and consistency evaluation, we can eliminate the excess capacity of generic drugs, reduce the price of generic drugs, and realize the effective use of medical insurance 1 As the upstream link of pharmaceutical industry, the rise and fall of API price is closely related to, or even consistent with, the development of pharmaceutical industry Under the influence of multiple factors, the API industry is undergoing changes, with both challenges and opportunities The increase of environmental protection pressure has increased the environmental protection expenditure of pharmaceutical manufacturing enterprises, forced some small production capacity to withdraw from the market, and increased the industry concentration, which is both an opportunity and a challenge for API manufacturing enterprises Only by increasing investment in environmental protection, upgrading industry, improving technology and improving pollution treatment capacity, can enterprises realize sustainable development and seize structural opportunities in future development In the past two years, influenced by the environmental protection and the force majeure of BASF, the price of vitamin APIs has risen dramatically, and even many APIs have been cut off Among them, the most affected by BASF event are vitamin A and vitamin E In November 2017, vitamin a once soared to 1400 yuan / kg, but now it has returned to 350 yuan / kg of the same period in 2017; vitamin E has generally declined in the past 10 years In November 2017, the highest rise was 130 yuan / kg, while vitamin E has now dropped to 35 yuan / kg, returning to the same level in 2017 In the first half of 2017, vitamin C decreased from 70 yuan / kg at the beginning of 2017 to 35 yuan / kg at present Due to strict environmental inspection and limited capacity in Shandong Province, the global calcium pantothenate market has a supply-demand gap of about 6000 tons The price has risen from 230 yuan / kg at the end of June to 750 yuan / kg at one time and now to 75 yuan / kg However, a number of policies and documents for environmental protection have been issued recently, especially after the winter, the pressure of environmental protection will come again At that time, whether the pharmaceutical companies can withstand the pressure will also affect the trend of the market price Under the condition that the influence of "anti restriction order" was gradually weakened, the price of antibiotics improved slightly, and the price of 6-APA was stable all the year round, and its main manufacturers were federal pharmaceutical and modern pharmaceutical With the tightening of environmental protection and the contraction of supply end in North China, the production of Wichita is limited The price of 6-APA has risen since the second half of 2017, which is at a historical high The current price is 230 yuan / kg The price of azithromycin has been kept at about 700 yuan / kg from 2015 to 2017, and has increased significantly in the middle of 2018 The current price is 950 yuan / kg The price of ceftriaxone sodium has basically remained within the range of 500-700 yuan / kg in the past six years, and dropped to the lowest point 505 at the end of 2016 Cephalosporin: the price has been stable at about 400 yuan / kg from 2010 to 2016, and increased in 2017 The current price is 480 yuan / kg 2 The market of traditional Chinese medicine tends to be stable Since 2014, the state has continuously strengthened its supervision In some areas, the market of traditional Chinese medicine has been on the track of survival of the fittest, changing the vicious circle of "bad money expelling good money" for a long time The control of quality and safety has become the consciousness of some production enterprises According to the previous report on quality assurance of traditional Chinese medicine and healthy development of traditional Chinese medicine industry in 2017, with the national attention and technological progress, the overall quality of traditional Chinese medicine has been greatly improved, the confusion of most traditional Chinese medicine varieties has been fundamentally solved, and a large number of counterfeit traditional Chinese medicine products flooding the market are also very rare The increasingly standardized market also directly determines whether the market is stable or not In the first three quarters, the prices of Astragalus, huangcen, dangshen, bupleurum, Cordyceps and other major Chinese herbal medicines remained basically stable, and the prices since 2017 were basically stable and fluctuated slightly The price of traditional Chinese medicine tends to be stable, which is conducive to the cost end control of traditional Chinese medicine enterprises 3 Blood products gradually out of the domestic blood products market mainly includes human albumin, human immunoglobulin, specific human immunoglobulin and coagulation factor products In the first three quarters of 2018, the number of blood products issued in batches was 53.29 million bottles, down 3.07% year on year In the third quarter, the data of batch issuance of blood products returned to a stable state The number of batch issuance was 9.9 million, a year-on-year increase of 12.2% The year-on-year decline rate was significantly narrowed The stock of blood products was gradually cleared, the industry entered the bottom, and the future growth is expected In the third quarter of 2018, the number of human serum albumin batches issued was more than 36.23 million bottles, up from nearly 35.49 million bottles in the third quarter of 2017, with a growth rate of 2.09% Human serum albumin basically completed de stocking, and a new round of growth has begun; In terms of single variety, intravenous immunoglobulin (hereinafter referred to as "Jing C") is the most commonly used clinical dosage form in both China and Europe and the United States, occupying the majority of the market share As there are no imported manufacturers, the competition of Jing C is mainly concentrated in several domestic blood products enterprises In the sample hospital market, Taibang occupies 26.2% of the "jing-c" market share, ranking first, and takes the leading position in the market coverage of grade hospitals In addition, Hualan biology, Yuanda Shuyang, Tiantan biology and Shanghai Laishi all have more than 10% market share in the sample hospitals In terms of the batch issuance data that more reflects the market supply of products, in 2017, the "jingc" batch issuance ranked first among Tiantan biology, and the shares of Taibang, Shanghai Laishi and Hualan biology also exceeded 10% In the third quarter, the number of batches issued by jing-c was 7.638 million bottles, down 9.95% year-on-year The decline rate was narrowed and the bottom appeared In the adjustment of the new medical insurance catalog in 2017, under the background of increasing restrictions on the use of most clinical drugs, the types and scope of reimbursement for blood products increased significantly, which shows that the state has gradually supported the release of clinical use of blood products Due to the expansion of reimbursement scope, more patients are expected to use blood products for treatment 4 At present, nearly 30 companies in the vaccine industry have announced the performance forecast for the first three quarters of 2018 According to statistics, there are 22 companies showing an increase in earnings in the third quarter and 7 companies showing a loss in advance Among them, Zhifei biology has the most beautiful performance, and its profit is expected to exceed 1 billion yuan in the first three quarters, with a year-on-year growth of nearly 300% With the launch of several heavy-duty products, the domestic vaccine market will enter the stage of expansion As of the end of September, about 1.27 million tetravalent influenza vaccines, about 300000 nine valent HPV vaccines and more than 4 million tetravalent HPV vaccines have been approved by Hualan biology The growth of Kangtai biological industry is mainly due to the discontinuation of domestic pentad vaccine supply As an alternative, Kangtai bio's quadruple vaccine sales have grown explosively Zhifei biology benefits from the independent products represented by AC Hib triple vaccine and the agent products represented by HPV vaccine Watson biology has maintained stable sales of its own vaccines such as DPT In addition, after the end of Shandong vaccine incident, the market realized recovery growth However, with the adverse effects of the "rabies vaccine event" of the longevity organism, the growth rate of class II vaccine will be greatly affected in the second half of the year According to the data of batch issuance in the first three quarters, there are about 340 million bottles of vaccines in total, a year-on-year decline of 22% The number of batches issued in the whole year will maintain this growth rate.