The valuation problem of vaccine companies: most like the pharmaceutical circuit of the technology stocks!

Introduction: Can science and technology develop a country, can vaccines also thrive in the pharmaceutical industry? Many friends are difficult to understand the valuation of vaccine companies, in early 2019 Kantai Bio, Watson Bio 20-30 billion, but the price-earnings ratio can not be seen, are moving 100-200 times PE, although with some of the heavyweight seed products listed to cash in some performance, until this year the vaccine stocks seem to be hundreds of billions, Watson 100 billion, Kantai 130 billion, smart fly more than 20 billion, the valuation is more difficult to understand.
But if professional investors have made their earnings forecasts and DCF models, they will find that the upcoming market will be a few heavy seed pneumonia 23 price, pneumonia 13 price, cervical cancer vaccine, and even the future shingles vaccine, the new crown vaccine will bring greater explosive growth, for the general heavy vaccine sales peak forecast seems to be more than the new drug Some reliable, because the vaccine research and development and production barriers than mono-resistant and other biological macromolecules are much higher, the competition is not so fierce, a Mersadon HPV nine-price vaccine sold in China for 3 years, a year 8 billion sales are still alone, enough to prove the development and production barriers of heavy seedlings.
based on the vaccine's adaptation population, penetration rate, multiplied by the expected pricing, can roughly measure the vaccine after the market sales, its growth curve slope is much higher than the general innovative drugs.
the accelerated research and development of the new crown vaccine on a global scale has changed the valuation system of vaccine stocks, which is different from the general concept of speculation, it can be foreseen that next year several companies different technology platforms new crown vaccine if approved to market, then the performance elasticity may be huge, the new crown vaccine is almost certainly the largest sales of vaccine varieties in human history! Because he does not have to do marketing, almost all human want to play; However, some new vaccine platforms such as mRNA, DNA, adenoviruses, etc. , there is still a lot of uncertainty, once successful on the competitive landscape of the vaccine will also have a great impact! If, as some scientists predict, the new coronavirus will not disappear completely in the future and may continue to exist in a mutated manner, just like the flu virus, then the sale of the new crown vaccine is not one-off, but may always exist, and the valuation discount for DCF will naturally mean a completely different! Why is the valuation of vaccines much like technology stocks? Because its up and down expected decision tree probability changes a lot, a moment is likely to be listed heavy seed clinical lying forward, the probability of success increased, a while is due to a link of production and research and development issues listing progress back, some safety events in the industry, a foreign one is a similar platform, seed clinical data is not good, constantly changing the future success probability of heavy vaccine, listing time, sales amount expectations, so the upward and downward valuation of the same feeling sour? Vaccines belong to the national biosecurity strategic materials, generally do not encourage imports, the protection of domestic vaccine manufacturers is necessary, on the other hand, because the vaccine safety incident brought the national regulatory threshold for manufacturers significantly increased, new players simply can not enter, small and medium-sized manufacturers without core varieties are gradually eliminated, and finally only in production, research and development, channels are more comprehensive several oligarchs, there are several small new technology development platform of scientific research biotech, but also dependent on oligarchs.
for the investment of vaccine enterprises, ordinary investors I suggest caution, now this year's liquidity easing background, can not help but say that vaccines and innovative drugs are short-term bubble, but stand in the long-term dimension, with the continued listing of heavy seedlings and performance, can be foreseen in China a few market value of more than 100 billion U.S. dollars of head vaccine enterprises, is in the next few years we can soon see, we wait and see! Li Qiushi - Currently the managing partner of Gaitjia Investment Group, was the Managing Director of Ping An Bank's Medical Andia Division, guotai Junan Securities Chief Pharmaceutical Industry Analyst, and was named the best analyst of New Wealth and Crystal Ball.
graduated from Peking University's Department of Medicine with an EMBA from Northwestern University's Kellogg School of Business.
has 15 years of rich experience in investment in the first and second tier of the medical and health industry.
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